WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Durian and Nock-ten passed within 65 nautical miles from Kammuri's current location as Category 1 typhoons, both ended up becoming high-end Cat 4 landfalls in Bicol peninsula.

Both have better CDO structure though at that point vs Kammuri.

[Highteeld]

Trying to curl more

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Minimal typhoon

29W KAMMURI 191201 0000 13.3N 131.4E WPAC 65 974

While JMA

TY 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 1 December 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 1 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°00' (13.0°)
E130°40' (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 500 km (270 NM)
SE 280 km (150 NM)

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/JamesMclaire/status/1200944431148388352

[wxman57]

No way this has been a typhoon for the past 24 hours. Closer to 50 kts than JMA's 80 kt 10-min wind. They had the center way too far west, as did Dvorak estimates. The center has been east of the convection for over 24 hours. It does look like it's near the convection now, though. Should see it really attain typhoon strength in the next 6 hours.

[Highteeld]

[aspen]

The latest center fix puts the LLC well within all of that convection. I think an intensification phase has finally begun.

You can see an eye-like feature starting to appear in the visible loop above.

[aspen]

Microwave presentation is getting better:
https://mobile.twitter.com/philipslau68 ... 4058005504

[Highteeld]

Euro is still insisting on a cat 5

[aspen]

Euro is still insisting on a cat 5

https://i.imgur.com/vwDwA6P.png

Now that Kammuri seems to finally be pulling itself together, the Euro’s forecast may actually be right. Only time will tell to see if it will keep this rate of improvement up.

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

It looks like a heart

[aspen]

36 hours until landfall, and Kammuri is quickly starting to look a lot better, and conditions will become more favorable as time goes on; OHC will rise quite a lot over the next day or so. Could we see a phase of RI or even ERI from this, or is the core doomed to be disrupted again?

[1900hurricane]

Reminds me of Dujuan '15 a bit when it first started to put itself together.

[mrbagyo]

Reminds me of Dujuan '15 a bit when it first started to put itself together.

Also Koppu

[Hayabusa]

It still expects a rapid deepening... actually it initialized it as 78kt/943mb

[Highteeld]

[Hayabusa]

Exploded

[Highteeld]

Euro still agrees with HWRF (13z Monday) on intensity