ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2019 Time : 232019 UTC
Lat : 25:21:00 N Lon : 70:50:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 950.2mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +18.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[MGC]

Dorian has become an impressive hurricane this afternoon. Praying it recurves. Knocking on the door of Cat-4, should be there by the 11pm advisory. This surely will cause panic along the East coast of Florida. A lot of people are going to loose sleep tonight. Hope the Bahamas have the hatches battened down......MGC

[Weatherboy1]

Not for nothing, but "wobble watching" is going to get more important as Dorian approaches Florida. And one thing that APPEARS to be happening is an earlier turn to an almost due W heading vs. WNW or more NW. Watching the 26N line and where/when Dorian crosses 72W and 74W. The further south at those markets, the greater (IMO) the threat to FL.

[MacTavish]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off.

While i agree that everyone needs to pay attention and be prepared... The model output is in no way "trash" regardless of current intensity. The models show what effects large scale steering currents will have on a system. All models in thier operational runs depict a strong cyclone along with its increasing size and influence on the surrounding environment.

[johngaltfla]

IMHO, folks, the models today may well be trash. Once a storm has the ability to create or enhance its own environment, all bets are off.

While i agree that everyone needs to pay attention and be prepared... The model output is in no way "trash" regardless of current intensity. The models show what effects large scale steering currents will have on a system. All models in thier operational runs depict a strong cyclone along with its increasing size and influence on the surrounding environment.

Current, not future. The steering currents will have to be substantially stronger than currently indicated, in my opinion, to divert or steer a major hurricane like this once it becomes a strong Cat 4 or stronger.

[NDG]

8:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 30
Location: 25.3°N 71.0°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[Blinhart]

I could see him going for Wilma's records of pressure and also record for wind speed the way he is going when he hasn't hit the Gulf Stream yet.

Could we see a storm get into the 870's and winds around 200?? Highly unlikely but I don't think we can rule it out yet, the way he is intensifying way more than anyone thought.

Its deepening rapidly but please control the sensationalism

I'm not sensationalizing this at all, I was asking a question that I know many people were thinking.

[Ian2401]

looks like its moving almost due W with the slightest N component.

[Airboy]

I*m a bit suprised it still pretty small and the wind field is not that big, I thought it would have gotten a bit bigger today.

[norva13x]

Well we can all feel a little less guilty marveling over this intensifying storm now that a US landfall looks unlikely. However, the Bahamas are still UTG so don't completely forget about them.

You really need to stop this, sounding the all clear and saying a US threat is unlikely is way off from one set of model runs when many of those runs/ensembles still show it over FL.

[MacTavish]

Current, not future. The steering currents will have to be substantially stronger than currently indicated, in my opinion, to divert or steer a major hurricane like this once it becomes a strong Cat 4 or stronger.

Thats not how steering currents work, but sure thats your opinion.

[Ubuntwo]

Well we can all feel a little less guilty marveling over this intensifying storm now that a US landfall looks unlikely. However, the Bahamas are still UTG so don't completely forget about them.

Really? Most ensembles members landfall on the US. Have you not seen how much models can suddenly shift in 4 days?

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't think it was sensationalizing at all. I think it was pure curiosity.

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

[jasons2k]

Well we can all feel a little less guilty marveling over this intensifying storm now that a US landfall looks unlikely. However, the Bahamas are still UTG so don't completely forget about them.

It's WAY to early to say a "US landfall looks unlikely." Like I have said in the model thread, things can change quickly, just as we have seen today. We still have a long way to go with Dorian.

The only thing that is certain is that things will change.

[drewschmaltz]

I could see him going for Wilma's records of pressure and also record for wind speed the way he is going when he hasn't hit the Gulf Stream yet.

Could we see a storm get into the 870's and winds around 200?? Highly unlikely but I don't think we can rule it out yet, the way he is intensifying way more than anyone thought.

Its deepening rapidly but please control the sensationalism

I'm not sensationalizing this at all, I was asking a question that I know many people were thinking.

I'm going to go ahead and cast my vote for sensationalism. Everyone waits around for the new updates wondering "how strong did he get" and almost immediately we get "is this going to be the strongest Ever". That's almost the definition of sensationalism. It's like watching your favorite team make a basket and then immediately thinking "what if they never miss another shot". It's just too much too soon. It's sensational.

[Ken711]

Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
Note, this pretty much verified.
HWRF did remarkable for short term rapid intensification.
NHC 950 mb at 00Z.

[supercane4867]

We should see an update statement from NHC if recon finds stronger winds in the NE quad

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1167583315680997376

[stormhunter7]

recon just hit center.

[HarryPotter]

Waiting to see what this next sonde brings... NE eyewall. Wonder if it hits Cat 4 if they will issue a separate update or wait for 2300 regular one?