ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

I won't rule out Dorian pushing cat5 in the near term, but I doubt a cat5 landfall. Since NHC expects Dorian to slow down before landfall, I think it will likely deal with upwelling and weaken quite a bit. I don't think it will weaken as much as Florence did before landfall, however, since Florence also had shear problems.

There wouldn't be that much upwelling with the Gulf Stream flowing so strongly there, it would be replenished constantly.

[supercane4867]

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

[ScottNAtlanta]

I won't rule out Dorian pushing cat5 in the near term, but I doubt a cat5 landfall. Since NHC expects Dorian to slow down before landfall, I think it will likely deal with upwelling and weaken quite a bit. I don't think it will weaken as much as Florence did before landfall, however, since Florence also had shear problems.

There wouldn't be that much upwelling with the Gulf Stream flowing so strongly there, it would be replenished constantly.

Other than south of Cuba, that warm water runs very deep as well. Some of the highest heat content.

[canes92]

Dorian is going to hit FL
Dorian is not going to hit FL
Dorian is going to hit FL
Dorian is not going to hit FL

[jasons2k]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

I was under the same impression. I remember Levi Cowan’s discussion video a couple days back talking about how a stronger Dorian would feel the ridge more and likely be positioned more west (and potentially west-southwest). Are the models taking into account this rapid intensification or are they behind the 8 ball with intensity?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Funny you said that, because I remember that particular video a couple of nights ago and I have been thinking the same thing. This earlier intensification, while not surprising, wasn't taken into consideration by the models and may indeed have some implications further down the line.

[johngaltfla]

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

Hoo boy. I just saw that and I'll bet we see a 930ish pressure by Sunday. Not good, not good at all.

[jlauderdal]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

John morales 30 minutes ago was talking about how positive the model trends were for sofla

[Blinhart]

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

And there we go, what 36 hours earlier than expected

[Yellow Evan]

I won't rule out Dorian pushing cat5 in the near term, but I doubt a cat5 landfall. Since NHC expects Dorian to slow down before landfall, I think it will likely deal with upwelling and weaken quite a bit. I don't think it will weaken as much as Florence did before landfall, however, since Florence also had shear problems.

There wouldn't be that much upwelling with the Gulf Stream flowing so strongly there, it would be replenished constantly.

Even with the high OHC, a system can all stay stationary for so long before upwelling takes its toll, especially since this appears to be growing in size. Hurricane Blanca from 2015 is proof of this.

[HarryPotter]

And there's the update. Officially Cat 4.

[ozonepete]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

John Morales needs to explain where he gets that logic from.

[rickybobby]

Went to grab some food that I can grill Incase I lose power and there were about 6 people in the return line at Publix because they heard it’s going to recurve and miss us.

[otowntiger]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

I was under the same impression. I remember Levi Cowan’s discussion video a couple days back talking about how a stronger Dorian would feel the ridge more and likely be positioned more west (and potentially west-southwest). Are the models taking into account this rapid intensification or are they behind the 8 ball with intensity?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

. But wouldn’t it also work the same way in regards to a trough? That’s what we always hear- stronger = north, weaker= west? The north turn is expected due to the location of a front way up north.

[jlauderdal]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

I remember hearing him on TV right when Dorian became classified as a Tropical Storm that he is not concerned about it because it will be approaching our area as a weak TD/TS at best. He sure has changed his tune today. This just goes to show you how little we still know about tropical meteorology and how much more we have to learn.

Correct, he was also on social media saying no problem, he thought dissipation but he wasn't the only one ...he is very good, not perfect

[jlauderdal]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

John Morales needs to explain where he gets that logic from.

Send him a tweet, he responds sometimes

[johngaltfla]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

I was under the same impression. I remember Levi Cowan’s discussion video a couple days back talking about how a stronger Dorian would feel the ridge more and likely be positioned more west (and potentially west-southwest). Are the models taking into account this rapid intensification or are they behind the 8 ball with intensity?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Funny you said that, because I remember that particular video a couple of nights ago and I have been thinking the same thing. This earlier intensification, while not surprising, wasn't taken into consideration by the models and may indeed have some implications further down the line.

This storm, sadly, will be another good test of the RI/Super-environment theory once again. I'll be curious to see how this turns out. IF I still have electricity in 5 days.

[1900hurricane]

Interestingly, NHC reduced the TS wind radii a little at 00Z. This brought the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) down a little to about 20 TJ. It was 22 TJ at 18Z with the 100 kt intensity. Surge Destruction Potential (SDP) based on that is about 2.5. SDP goes from 0-6, and is supposed to imitate the SSHWS for surge impacts.

Month,Day,Hour,V,IKE,Track IKE,SDP
8,22,12,15,0.000,0.000,0.000
8,22,18,15,0.000,0.000,0.000
8,23,0,20,0.000,0.000,0.000
8,23,6,20,0.000,0.000,0.000
8,23,12,25,0.000,0.000,0.000
8,23,18,25,0.000,0.000,0.000
8,24,0,25,0.000,0.000,0.000
8,24,6,25,0.000,0.000,0.000
8,24,12,30,0.000,0.000,0.000
8,24,18,35,0.262,0.262,0.265
8,25,0,35,0.300,0.562,0.288
8,25,6,40,0.322,0.884,0.301
8,25,12,40,0.322,1.206,0.301
8,25,18,45,0.846,2.051,0.523
8,26,0,45,2.142,4.193,0.859
8,26,6,50,2.419,6.612,0.914
8,26,12,50,2.551,9.163,0.940
8,26,18,45,1.716,10.880,0.765
8,27,0,45,1.716,12.596,0.765
8,27,6,45,1.716,14.312,0.765
8,27,12,45,1.864,16.176,0.799
8,27,18,45,1.864,18.040,0.799
8,28,0,50,1.973,20.013,0.823
8,28,6,55,2.315,22.329,0.894
8,28,12,60,3.407,25.736,1.088
8,28,18,65,3.948,29.684,1.172
8,29,0,70,3.904,33.588,1.165
8,29,6,75,7.267,40.855,1.580
8,29,12,75,7.267,48.122,1.580
8,29,18,75,8.042,56.164,1.659
8,30,0,80,10.530,66.693,1.885
8,30,6,90,11.957,78.651,2.000
8,30,12,95,11.994,90.644,2.003
8,30,18,100,22.355,112.999,2.654
8,31,0,115,19.647,132.646,2.507

[jlauderdal]

Went to grab some food that I can grill Incase I lose power and there were about 6 people in the return line at Publix because they heard it’s going to recurve and miss us.

Why dont they just use it, seriously all the back and forth is ridiculous..its food, you have to eat so dont tell me its a financial thing..furthermore, if you want to save money you dont go to publix

[johngaltfla]

Went to grab some food that I can grill Incase I lose power and there were about 6 people in the return line at Publix because they heard it’s going to recurve and miss us.

Why dont they just use it, seriously all the back and forth is ridiculous..its food, you have to eat so dont tell me its a financial thing..furthermore, if you want to save money you dont go to publix

Unless you "need" bogo craft/import beers. Then it is a good deal.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

John Morales needs to explain where he gets that logic from.

Yea, I don't believe that to be honest. Otherwise we'd be seeing a more westward track from the HWRF.