ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

Is this west component "on track" or deviating south of the model guidance?

I believe this may be south of track but I can be wrong

[Ian2401]

Is this west component "on track" or deviating south of the model guidance?

I believe this may be south of track but I can be wrong

can anyone confirm this

[Kat5]

Is this west component "on track" or deviating south of the model guidance?

Still within the model means for now.

[ozonepete]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

He posted on Twitter that he is going to post a link to his interview with the NHC that aired earlier tonight where this was discussed in response to someone mentioning Levi’s video

I like Morales and love Levi and the NHC but there is no research that supports this and they don't say there's any. I have heard this carted aout multiple times in the last 30 years and it's right in actual cases about 50 percent of the time. So flip a coin - you'll have the same odds.

[Hurrilurker]

This thing really looked pretty poor last night. What a difference ~18 hours makes, crazy.

[aperson]

Likely just a gust.

I'm still surprised to see that much variance in windspeed, but I guess that's probably an indicator that it's still strengthening. That still appears to me that it has cat 5 supporting winds in most of the air column, they just have not mixed to the surface yet.

[rickybobby]

I thought by Friday we would have a good idea on where it was going and now we have more questions than answers.

[jlauderdal]

John Morales needs to explain where he gets that logic from.

Send him a tweet, he responds sometimes

I don't do twitter anymore. It's a black hole of negativity.

Depends who you follow

[Visioen]

The steering currents will have to be substantially stronger than currently indicated, in my opinion, to divert or steer a major hurricane like this once it becomes a strong Cat 4 or stronger.

Because it is heavier?

[PandaCitrus]

It's 270 due west at least for the last hour on IR.

[flamingosun]

Mandatory Evacuation Orders have begun in Central Florida

A mandatory evacuation order for Brevard County’s barrier island will take effect at 8 a.m. Sunday as Hurricane Dorian approaches.

This evacuation order affects:

• Beachside residents, ranging from Kennedy Space Center southward to Sebastian Inlet (including Merritt Island).

• Residents who live in mobile homes or manufactured housing.

• Residents who live in low-lying, flood-prone areas.

• Residents with special medical needs.

“While I know that no one likes to leave their home, I really believe in my heart that – given the current forecast – this is the best course of action to take to keep everyone absolutely safe,” Brevard County Sheriff Wayne Ivey said in a Friday night Facebook video.

To determine whether a property lies in an evacuation zone, visit https://bit.ly/2wKvjq0 and enter the address in the search engine in the upper left hand corner of the screen.

Emergency officials will likely announce details Saturday regarding the opening of public storm shelters, said Don Walker, Brevard County spokesman.

Storm shelters will be offered for the general population, families with pets, and people with special medical needs.

LINK: https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news ... 169512001/

[canes92]

I thought by Friday we would have a good idea on where it was going and now we have more questions than answers.

Right? It's like everyday, the landfall date keeps getting later and later. Now we're trying to figure that it may not make landfall at all!

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1167602758507290624

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2105A-DORIAN_dropsonde12_20190831-0000.png

wtf this is for real?

Likely just a gust.

That was a dropsonde, a direct measure of the surface winds. Confirms Cat 4 and shows that very, very violent winds exist higher up.

[jlauderdal]

John Morales from nbc6 seems a bit concerned now that Dorian is rapidly intensifying might it head further west.

He posted on Twitter that he is going to post a link to his interview with the NHC that aired earlier tonight where this was discussed in response to someone mentioning Levi’s video

I like Morales and love Levi and the NHC but there is no research that supports this and they don't say there's any. I have heard this carted aout multiple times in the last 30 years and it's right in actual cases about 50 percent of the time. So flip a coin - you'll have the same odds.

Well said pete..we go through this every season..storms pumping ridges, upwelling supposed to have a big effect, storms that are supposed to wipe cities off the map and rarely do anything close to it

[gatorcane]

Big wobble or I see due west now:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[1900hurricane]

wtf this is for real?

Likely just a gust.

That was a dropsonde, a direct measure of the surface winds. Confirms Cat 4 and shows that very, very violent winds exist higher up.

Yep, 0.85 reduction of the lowest 150 m is right in line with all the other data. Same reduction over the lowest 500 m? That's...a little higher.

[dukeblue219]

wtf this is for real?

Likely just a gust.

That was a dropsonde, a direct measure of the surface winds. Confirms Cat 4 and shows that very, very violent winds exist higher up.

Nevertheless, could just be a singular gust from a strong part of the eyewall. Dropsonde wind measurements aren't 1-minute sustained winds.

[CronkPSU]

He posted on Twitter that he is going to post a link to his interview with the NHC that aired earlier tonight where this was discussed in response to someone mentioning Levi’s video

I like Morales and love Levi and the NHC but there is no research that supports this and they don't say there's any. I have heard this carted aout multiple times in the last 30 years and it's right in actual cases about 50 percent of the time. So flip a coin - you'll have the same odds.

Well said pete..we go through this every season..storms pumping ridges, upwelling supposed to have a big effect, storms that are supposed to wipe cities off the map and rarely do anything close to it

I mean then you get hurricanes like Michael which ramp up beyond what anyone or model thought possible

[Ian2401]

Big wobble or I see due west now:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

def been due west for a while, at least an hour