ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AdamFirst]

Wouldn't necessarily call anything a trend....north motion, maybe. UKMET, GFS, CMC, along with HWRF and pretty much everyone else is still showing landfall. The only "consensus" being shown is a track through Grand Bahama through 72 hours, then it's a dart board against the Florida east coast. Any calls of all clear are way too immature and just reckless wishful thinking.

[caneman]

Horrible solution for the Bahamas, just horrible.

I edited my post above but for those calling model failure let's be clear.

1. You're showing your bias
2. Model accuracy 4 days out is not all that great. 50 miles makes a big difference when you're talking on or off the coast.
3. This is why there's a cone of uncertainty. It's still not certain where Dorian will be on Monday.

The modeling has been horrible with Dorian, there have been large swings in path and expected landfall timeframe. I'm not showing my bias. I had big plans for the weekend and dont want another Irma situation.

A complete miss of Florda will be a big failure for modeling given how much Dorian has been hyped and how much modeling had a hit on Florida. Even my wife, who could care less about hurricanes said, 'she fears this will put everyone back into complacency". It's not a knock, it just is what it is and still proves hurricanes are still hard to predict. Anytime you get the masses to go out clearing out stores and gas, you can expect an eliminate of 'I'm not going to worry about it next time'. It's natural after all as many have invested time and money.

[robbielyn]

This is a huge failure in modeling if it verifies and misses Florida all together. A lot of people will be mad and go back to their cynical ways. Heck, even in west Florida people are emptying stores and gas stations.

I disagree. Maybe some but they should be relieved. I am. i live in a trailer and don’t want to lose my home or have a tree fall on my car. After Irma we take these things seriously now that is why we did gas up and empty the stores. The season just started so all we bought may come in handy the next time.

[stormlover2013]

Man this is just such a tough pattern for the models, just happens sometimes.

[AtlanticWind]

I wouldn't make my plans on one model cycle.

You will see the NHC moves the cone very little at 5pm
Too many variables still in play

[caneman]

This is a huge failure in modeling if it verifies and misses Florida all together. A lot of people will be mad and go back to their cynical ways. Heck, even in west Florida people are emptying stores and gas stations.

I disagree. Maybe some but they should be relieved. I am. i live in a trailer and don’t want to lose my home or have a tree fall on my car. After Irma we take these things seriously now that is why we did gas up and empty the stores. The season just started so all we bought may come in handy the next time.

That is good and I agree but it's different for people that dont trac k these things and only get vignettes from the news or social media news feed. I was on the one hand happy to see so many many vigilant after Irma but it can just as easily swing back.

[Ken711]

I'm curious to see what the latest Euro ensembles show for this run.

[NC George]

Well while Florida throws a collective party after this run, the Carolinas freak the heck out.

No idea what this means as all Dorian has to do is be 25 -30 miles further west for a huge hurt on much of the FL coast.

Yes, I'm aware of that. My point is that until this run, Dorian hasn't been on anyone's radar in the Carolinas. That may need to change.

Anytime a storm is predicted to hit the East Coast of Florida 5 days out I'm paying close attention here in NC.

[psyclone]

Wow, still in the error cone, but huge bust for NHC if US miss happens. People will get over it and be happy...

I'm not going to call out every post but watch the bust designation, how is it a bust? Error cone is clearly offshore, way way offshore. If you're focused on the black line you're doing it wrong.

And it wouldn't be a "bust" anyway. when a storm is expected to turn near the longitude of florida you have a variety of widely variable solutions on the table...up the spine, a scrape of either coast or something in between. 1 degree of longitude can mean the difference between a breezy day and a hurricane for a given location. People expect granularity 4 days in advance....it ain't happening. If the stores are mobbed with people buying stuff they should have bought before june 1...well as the Reese's ad says...not sorry. I'd wager the NHC won't be showing OTS on their 5 pm update..but i can't wait to see what they do and say about these developments..

[sma10]

https://i.imgur.com/d7n8D6n.png

I'm thinking the TABS model has it just about perfect

[Ken711]

So is the slowest factor of Dorian allowing time for the ridge to back off and a possible escape OTS?

[sma10]

Wow, still in the error cone, but huge bust for NHC if US miss happens. People will get over it and be happy...

I'm not going to call out every post but watch the bust designation, how is it a bust? Error cone is clearly offshore, way way offshore. If you're focused on the black line you're doing it wrong.

And it wouldn't be a "bust" anyway. when a storm is expected to turn near the longitude of florida you have a variety of widely variable solutions on the table...up the spine, a scrape of either coast or something in between. 1 degree of longitude can mean the difference between a breezy day and a hurricane for a given location. People expect granularity 4 days in advance....it ain't happening. If the stores are mobbed with people buying stuff they should have bought before june 1...well as the Reese's ad says...not sorry. I'd wager the NHC won't be showing OTS on their 5 pm update..but i can't wait to see what they do and say about these developments..

Agree with this 100%. The only thing that amplified the whole situation is the fact that the Florida landmass is sticking down. If this were the Central Atlantic I don't think people would be calling a model failure

[Raebie]

No idea what this means as all Dorian has to do is be 25 -30 miles further west for a huge hurt on much of the FL coast.

Yes, I'm aware of that. My point is that until this run, Dorian hasn't been on anyone's radar in the Carolinas. That may need to change.

Anytime a storm is predicted to hit the East Coast of Florida 5 days out I'm paying close attention here in NC.

So am I, but then we aren't the average weather news consumers.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Reminder that the room for error at 92 hours even by the NHC is over 100 miles.

ECMWF can very easily shift back. You all know it. How many times did the models shift with Irma going OTS? The "sighs of relief" and the all clear posts are very disappointing to read.

Although I definitely take back my consensus post from earlier -- it's very clear there's still some major uncertainties in track.

[robbielyn]

i think yesterday the models sniffed out the slow down because it has to do that to turn from a western to an easterly direction. i was trying to figure out why it was slowing down so much cause it wants to avoid land like it has all along. hopefully it will stay offshore. that would be a huge relief that’s for sure but has been certainly nerve racking. but things can still change i guess so we keep monitoring.

[caneman]

Let's get back to modeling. I have a serious question though. Am I imagining things or has this been one of the hardest storms to model in recent times? I'm used to one model or another sticking to their guns and you had to figure out which would be right aside from just going with the NHC. Anyone recall such wild swings in path and landfall timeframe. I'm curious from an analytical standpoint if anyone has such data. Thanks

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/d7n8D6n.png

I'm thinking the TABS model has it just about perfect

ha

[supercane4867]

Let's get back to modeling. I have a serious question though. Am I imagining things or has this been one of the hardest storms to model in recent times? Anyone recall such wild swings in path and landfall timeframe. I'm curious from an analytical standpoint if anyone has such data. Thanks

I'd say Irma was one of the hardest storm to model. The sudden turn into Cuba was very poorly predicted.

[catskillfire51]

Does the fact the euro initializes Dorian at 991, it doesn’t get to 967mb till it gets to Florida but it’s currently at 967 or even lower when recon gets back, but will that have big impacts on track in the future?

[Ken711]

Ryan Maue.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167512296110923776?s=20[/Tweet]