EPAC: ERICK - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

SAB to my surprise is T2.0 still.

[Kingarabian]

Convection still pretty shallow and no blossoming CDO yet.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

The depression has not changed in organization since earlier this
morning. GOES-17 visible imagery suggests that the depression's
center is embedded within an elongated northeast-to-southwest
oriented trough, yet the cyclone also has a central area of
convection and some convective banding. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB.
It should be noted that just-received ASCAT data suggests the
possibility the system is at tropical storm strength, and if this
is confirmed a Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued before the
next advisory.

A strong mid-level high is centered over the U.S./Mexico border,
with the flow on its southern periphery pushing the depression
quickly westward with a motion of 280/16 kt. The ridging is not
expected to break down much during the forecast period, thus the
cyclone is expected to maintain a westward or west-northwestward
motion through day 5, with perhaps some slowing of its forward
speed. The track models are tightly clustered, although most of
them lie south of the previous official forecast. The new forecast
has therefore been adjusted southward, but it lies along the
northern edge of the guidance envelope.

Vertical shear is expected to be low for at least the next 4 days,
with sea surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone being generally
between 27 and 29 degrees Celsius. Therefore, strengthening is
anticipated, although the trend could be gradual in the short term
while the cyclone attempts to form a more symmetric circulation.
The updated NHC official intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN
model consensus, bringing the system to tropical storm strength by
tonight and then to hurricane strength on Tuesday. If the
circulation becomes more well defined sooner, then the cyclone
could strengthen a little more than indicated in the forecast, as
suggested by the HWRF and HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 11.6N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 11.8N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 12.2N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 13.2N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 14.3N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 15.6N 145.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 16.7N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Taylor

[Kingarabian]

Will be Erick soon

[Yellow Evan]

Am a bit puzzled on why the NHC is so conservative with the intensity forecast. We’ve seen the statistical guidance bust low so many times in this basin.

[Kingarabian]

Am a bit puzzled on why the NHC is so conservative with the intensity forecast. We’ve seen the statistical guidance bust low so many times in this basin.

Even the GFS operational peaks it @ 975mb 100mph.

[TheAustinMan]

I'm a little surprised that the NHC seems to have jumped the gun on the advisory, which appears to have necessitated a pretty unusual tropical cyclone update for a pretty marginal intensity increase of 5 knots and for a storm not imminently affecting land. One would imagine ASCAT data downlink and availability and orbits are known well in advance. Looking at the data it appears they're referencing this afternoon's ASCAT-C scatterometer pass with gale-force winds whose data seems to have been available for at least a half-hour prior to advisory issuance and around an hour or more before the scheduled advisory time.

Perhaps NHC wasn't expecting significant changes (based on the rather meager satellite appearance) and the scatterometer data wasn't accounted for in the intensity analysis phase of the NHC advisory workflow that I guess wrapped up well before 21z, or maybe for whatever reason the data was assimilated into ATCF later than anticipated. I remember seeing a timeline diagram of a typical NHC advisory package workflow somewhere and was wondering if anyone had that handy.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Erick Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
215 PM PDT Sat Jul 27 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite ocean surface wind data indicate that Tropical Depression
Six-E has become Tropical Storm Erick with winds near 40 mph
(65 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend about 20 miles
(30 km) to the east of the center.


SUMMARY OF 215 PM PDT...2115 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 125.3W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2055 MI...3305 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster BEVEN

[Astromanía]

Hi Erick!

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUL 2019 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 11:36:48 N Lon : 125:25:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1010.8mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.6 3.1

Center Temp : -69.8C Cloud Region Temp : -60.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

[Kingarabian]

Last few frames show convection near the center getting a bit more organized compared to earlier this morning:

[Kingarabian]

If the CDO can persists for another 6 hours we should see a core develop since there are some hints on 37ghz imagery:

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUL 2019 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 11:39:01 N Lon : 125:46:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1008.5mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 3.0 3.4

Center Temp : -64.7C Cloud Region Temp : -59.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Both the HWRF and HMON make this a major hurricane.

[cycloneye]

As of 00:00 UTC Jul 28, 2019:

Location: 11.8°N 126.1°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ERICK EP062019 07/28/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 49 54 62 68 70 72 69 65 60 55
V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 49 54 62 68 70 72 69 65 60 55
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 52 60 67 71 70 65 59 52
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 1 2 1 3 1 6 6 6 8 11 22 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 3 4 -1 -7 -5 0 2 5 4 1
SHEAR DIR 287 268 49 144 146 160 221 236 212 251 246 256 266
SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.8 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 150 153 152 146 142 144 138 134 129 132 134
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 58 57 57 56 56 54 49 49 49 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 12 13 11 12 12 14 14 16 15 15 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR -8 4 5 16 12 10 9 14 15 5 -7 -1 -7
200 MB DIV 7 30 75 66 70 28 11 26 49 38 5 -1 -6
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -8 -9 -9 -6 -2 -2 -3 -1 7 6 4
LAND (KM) 2051 2143 2242 2343 2434 2299 1992 1710 1422 1159 927 692 458
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.6 129.0 130.4 131.8 134.3 137.1 139.7 142.3 144.7 146.8 149.0 151.2
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 15 12 15 20 16 10 17 20 12 6 4 3 5

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 19. 27. 33. 35. 37. 34. 30. 25. 20.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.8 126.1

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.93 9.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 3.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 42.9% 31.6% 22.6% 14.7% 33.1% 34.4% 25.4%
Logistic: 37.6% 71.4% 59.0% 52.0% 9.9% 31.9% 6.8% 7.5%
Bayesian: 4.1% 12.2% 3.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Consensus: 19.5% 42.2% 31.4% 25.5% 8.4% 21.8% 13.8% 10.9%
DTOPS: 4.0% 17.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 14.0% 7.0% 36.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/28/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 JUL 2019 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 11:41:37 N Lon : 126:15:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1001.7mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : -51.1C Cloud Region Temp : -52.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.60 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 12:29:23 N Lon: 126:39:36 W

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 280019
TCSENP

A. 06E (NONAME)

B. 28/0000Z

C. 11.8N

D. 125.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D05.24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND LLC 3/10 ON LOG BASE 10
SPIRAL. MET=1.5 AND PT=2. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLC
POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/2131Z 11.8N 125.3W AMSR2


...BOLL

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 0, 118N, 1261W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, ASL, 280, 16,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 3, 119N, 1268W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, ASL, 280, 15,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 12, 122N, 1290W, 40, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 50, 0, , 0, ASL, 280, 14,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 24, 126N, 1318W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, ASL, 280, 14,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 36, 131N, 1344W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, ASL, 280, 13,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 36, 131N, 1344W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, ASL, 280, 13,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 48, 137N, 1371W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, ASL, 285, 13,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 48, 137N, 1371W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, ASL, 285, 13,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 48, 137N, 1371W, 65, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, ASL, 285, 13,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 72, 150N, 1421W, 75, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, ASL, 285, 12,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 72, 150N, 1421W, 75, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, ASL, 285, 12,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 72, 150N, 1421W, 75, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, ASL, 285, 12,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 96, 165N, 1465W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, ASL, 290, 11,
EP, 06, 2019072800, 03, OFCL, 120, 170N, 1510W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, ASL, 275, 11,

[Nancy Smar]

WTPZ41 KNHC 280233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

An ASCAT-C scatterometer overpass this afternoon showed an area of
35-kt winds over the eastern semicircle of the system's circulation,
which led to upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Erick in
an update just after the previous official advisory was issued. The
overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past
several hours, and the latest satellite intensity estimate averages
from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the system at 35 kt for this
advisory.

The motion of Erick is 280/15 kt, driven by strong mid-level ridging
to the north of the cyclone. This ridging is forecast to persist to
the north of the Erick, with only slight weakening expected later in
the forecast period. This will result in a motion just north of
west with a slight decrease in forward speed in a few days. Model
guidance is in very good agreement on the forecast track of Erick.
The latest guidance runs shifted back northward slightly from their
previous runs, and the latest official forecast was nudged only a
little north to lie essentially in the middle of the tightly
clustered track guidance.

Environmental conditions are favorable for Erick to intensify over
the next 3 to 4 days, with the only current inhibiting factor is
that the system lacks a well-defined inner core. How fast this
inner core consolidates will be a key factor in the pace of
intensification of Erick in the short term. Based on expectation
that the inner core will consolidate, the NHC official intensity
forecast has been increased through 96 hours to follow the trends in
the intensity guidance. It should be noted that some of the more
reliable dynamical guidance is suggesting that Erick could intensify
more than indicated in this favorable environment. By about 96
hours, Erick should begin to weaken as it is expected to begin
moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly shear, with
SHIPS guidance indicating over 20 kt of shear by day 5. And, at
this same time dry air surrounding the system may begin to entrain
into the storm's circulation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 11.9N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven

[Ntxw]

Ready..set..go!



Guessing 120 kts for peak...low shear + warm water + organized.