ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Good thing 95L doesn't have much convection. Obvious anti-cyclone above it and a circulation below.

Not much of a circulation were it matters if there was any surface forcing convection would more than likely sustain itself. Not much left this morning

[NDG]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern
Caribbean Sea is disorganized and limited. This system is expected
to move west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea and the Greater
Antilles during the next few days bringing locally heavy rainfall
and possibly some flooding across portions of these islands. Little
or no development of this disturbance is anticipated during the
next couple of days. However, conditions could be a little more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the system reaches the
the Florida Straits or the Bahamas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[SEASON_CANCELED]

this stinks, can't even get a floater on it this morning



Models are not even thinking much of it, but I woke up this morning and saw this hype/fake news graphic front paged and in red on the front page of Orlando Sentinel. With a title STORM APPROACHING Click-bait much?

[acidus]

this stinks, can't even get a floater on it this morning



Models are not even thinking much of it, but I woke up this morning and saw this hype/fake news graphic front paged and in red on the front page of Orlando Sentinel. With a title STORM APPROACHING Click-bait much?

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/resizer/wX9Wxs9Tk6peTy-l--AcmXU4_ow=/800x450/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/CCBTXUWHJJHADGZTQFXNZYHUVM.jpg

The graphic is from the NHC:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[SEASON_CANCELED]

this stinks, can't even get a floater on it this morning



Models are not even thinking much of it, but I woke up this morning and saw this hype/fake news graphic front paged and in red on the front page of Orlando Sentinel. With a title STORM APPROACHING Click-bait much?

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/resizer/wX9Wxs9Tk6peTy-l--AcmXU4_ow=/800x450/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/CCBTXUWHJJHADGZTQFXNZYHUVM.jpg

The graphic is from the NHC:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Headline is over the top

[boca]

I’m surprised this is still an invest it looks terrible.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I’m surprised this is still an invest it looks terrible.

not me. Its still July

[msbee]

I am not sure if 95L will develop into anything but I can tell you that right now St Maarten is getting dumped on with tons of rain.

[Dean4Storms]

I’m surprised this is still an invest it looks terrible.

Yea, some popcorn convection that dies immediately.

[Dean4Storms]

I am not sure if 95L will develop into anything but I can tell you that right now St Maarten is getting dumped on with tons of rain.

That's the most impressive convection with this system this morning. Stay safe!

[jlauderdal]

this stinks, can't even get a floater on it this morning



Models are not even thinking much of it, but I woke up this morning and saw this hype/fake news graphic front paged and in red on the front page of Orlando Sentinel. With a title STORM APPROACHING Click-bait much?

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/resizer/wX9Wxs9Tk6peTy-l--AcmXU4_ow=/800x450/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/CCBTXUWHJJHADGZTQFXNZYHUVM.jpg

This is the title i see:

Tropical wave could form into tropical storm with Florida in its sights

[SFLcane]

[NotSparta]

No surprise it's not looking good, it's not supposed to even develop here

[MississippiWx]

The area that 95L is located is often a killer for convection/weak lows. The trade winds slow down as they approach the island chain which increases convergence. This, along with upper level divergence from the TUTT, increases convection the last two days. The trade winds accelerate again once they move into the Eastern Caribbean. This increases surface divergence which is the opposite of what you want for convection. Once the wave axis is able to move into the SW Atlantic/Bahamas region, you will most likely see an uptick in convection again.

[msbee]

https://i.imgur.com/xaGtQmG.gif

yep, that's right over me!

[artist]

https://i.imgur.com/xaGtQmG.gif

yep, that's right over me!

How are you doing there? Hope it isn’t unmanageable.

[msbee]

https://i.imgur.com/xaGtQmG.gif

yep, that's right over me!

How are you doing there? Hope it isn’t unmanageable.

We are OK in the house but it's been a rough morning.
Currently skies are clearing a little. Maybe the worst is over?
What a deluge it has been!
Early this morning before the rain started I emptied my rain gauge. We had received 2 inches overnight.
Then the heavens opened up once again this morning. Currently my rain gauge measure 3 inches more of rain.
It has been torrential rain with thunder and lightning all morning.
There are reports of many roads flooded.

It seems like 95L convection just blew up right over us.

[artist]

yep, that's right over me!

How are you doing there? Hope it isn’t unmanageable.

We are OK in the house but it's been a rough morning.
Currently skies are clearing a little. Maybe the worst is over?
What a deluge it has been!
Early this morning before the rain started I emptied my rain gauge. We had received 2 inches overnight.
Then the heavens opened up once again this morning. Currently my rain gauge measure 3 inches more of rain.
There are reports of many roads flooded.
I received a video on my Whatsapp of boys jet skiing on the streets of Marigot on the French side.
and I also received pictures of a landslide in Saba where a huge boulder crashed through the side of a house.
It seems like 95L convection just blew up right over us.

Oh gosh, Barb, glad you are ok, though. I hope it pulls away soon for you and noone has been injured.

[artist]

I’m surprised this is still an invest it looks terrible.

This is why it is an invest, from the NHC-

Little
or no development of this disturbance is anticipated during the
next couple of days. However, conditions could be a little more
conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the system reaches the
the Florida Straits or the Bahamas over the weekend.

So it is doing as expected, but there are flooding rains occurring with it, which helps to bring focus to that in their message as well, before it hits its possibly ripe spot to organize.

[plasticup]

I’m surprised this is still an invest it looks terrible.

Feels like CONUS bias. If this was somewhere else we wouldn't be talking about it yet.