ATL: BARRY - Models

[gatorcane]

Wow that is a lot of rain for NOLA if the GFS is right

[TheStormExpert]

It’ll be interesting to see what the 00z model suite shows but for now the consensus is not good for the New Orleans area in terms of flooding impacts.

[sphelps8681]

I dont think I can share an image but the 18z Euro (out to 90 hrs only) shifted well to the west with a NNW heading about 100 or so miles south of Pecan Island, LA. Are the shorter intermediate runs of the Euro less reliable? First year I've seen this product.

Saw the same image with 979 headed to Tx/La border. Not sure how that will play out.

[MississippiWx]

This track situation is a doozy and far from set in stone. The 18z Euro just came in close to where the HWRF makes landfall, and thus stronger.

I didnt know there was a 18z Euro!

Yes, it's new this year. Not sure of its reliability compared to the normal cycles, but it is much farther to the west this run.

[northjaxpro]

It’ll be interesting to see what the 00z model suite shows but for now the consensus is not good for the New Orleans area in terms of flooding impacts.

Exactly. I was just getting ready to mention this. Really that whole region of Louiisiana and Mississippi for that matter. Potential flood concerns in NOLA a very disticnt probability now.

[WAcyclone]

18z ECMWF:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1148752485168885760

[SoupBone]

So why the west shift in the Euro? That's concerning for SE Texas.....again.

[gatorcane]

Wow looks like the GFS shows round 2 with future Barry making a large cyclonic loop (strengthening over land mind you lol) and coming back around for LA. 342 hours below: this run is totally not believable.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1148757607676440576




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1148759296408084480

[LeonardRay]

I dont think I can share an image but the 18z Euro (out to 90 hrs only) shifted well to the west with a NNW heading about 100 or so miles south of Pecan Island, LA. Are the shorter intermediate runs of the Euro less reliable? First year I've seen this product.

Where can I run the 18z euro?

[northjaxpro]

Wow looks like the GFS shows round 2 with future Barry making a large cyclonic loop (strengthening over land mind you lol) and coming back around for LA. 342 hours below:

https://i.postimg.cc/CMnTZk6X/gfs-z850-vort-watl-58.png

I do not want to even think about this crazy long range solution right now. Thankfully it is LONG RANGE! Let us get through this week's situation first and foremost, which is keeping me and everyone else very busy.

[NDG]

18z Rapid HD Euro will definitely wake up Houston people again

[jasons2k]

Wow looks like the GFS shows round 2 with future Barry making a large cyclonic loop (strengthening over land mind you lol) and coming back around for LA. 342 hours below: this run is totally not believable.

It is early July. It's quite possible for a ridge to build back in. Wouldn't be the first time.

[CaneCurious]

Wow that is a lot of rain for NOLA if the GFS is right

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0M9SRzc/gfs-apcpn-seus-21.png

We can’t handle that much rain! Parts of the city will be decimated by that much water.

[South Texas Storms]

18z Rapid HD Euro will definitely wake up Houston people again

https://i.imgur.com/38UtB0E

No one over here should be sleeping yet anyway! Like I mentioned this afternoon, everywhere from TX to MS shouldn't let their guard down just because most of today's models started to key in on LA being the likely landfall spot. Still far from a sure thing.

[SoupBone]

18z Rapid HD Euro will definitely wake up Houston people again

https://i.imgur.com/38UtB0E

No one over here should be sleeping yet anyway! Like I mentioned this afternoon, everywhere from TX to MS shouldn't let their guard down just because most of today's models started to key in on LA being the likely landfall spot. Still far from a sure thing.

But what is it picking up on that changes so dramatically from the last 2 runs?

[LeonardRay]

18z Rapid HD Euro will definitely wake up Houston people again

https://i.imgur.com/38UtB0E

No one over here should be sleeping yet anyway! Like I mentioned this afternoon, everywhere from TX to MS shouldn't let their guard down just because most of today's models started to key in on LA being the likely landfall spot. Still far from a sure thing.

But what is it picking up on that changes so dramatically from the last 2 runs?

I'm sure it missed the trough and the high started to build back in and a deeper system will react to that with a more westward movement.

Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk

[NDG]

18z Rapid HD Euro will definitely wake up Houston people again

https://i.imgur.com/38UtB0E

No one over here should be sleeping yet anyway! Like I mentioned this afternoon, everywhere from TX to MS shouldn't let their guard down just because most of today's models started to key in on LA being the likely landfall spot. Still far from a sure thing.

But what is it picking up on that changes so dramatically from the last 2 runs?

Like Levi explained a stronger hurricane would track further west, in this case this is what the HWRF and 18z Rapid Euro do.

[Camerooski]

18z Rapid HD Euro will definitely wake up Houston people again

https://i.imgur.com/38UtB0E

No one over here should be sleeping yet anyway! Like I mentioned this afternoon, everywhere from TX to MS shouldn't let their guard down just because most of today's models started to key in on LA being the likely landfall spot. Still far from a sure thing.

But what is it picking up on that changes so dramatically from the last 2 runs?

The stronger the storm the higher in the atmosphere it will feel the affects of the northerly flow pushing the storm to the south and west. Therefore, the stronger Barry is the further west, the weaker= eastern solution.

[plasticup]

The HWRF is laughably always over done IMO

HWRF nailed Hurricane Danny in 2015, which underwent rapid intensification into a major hurricane in the Tropical Atlant:ic . It was the only model which had it as a major hurricane.

Don't be so hard on that model....

Broken clock, twice a day, etc