ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Highteeld
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#401 Postby Highteeld » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:35 pm

Major heating going on in the eye right now. several pixels at WMG

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#402 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:41 pm

Wow, 130 kt, that's even higher than initial peak intensity (which I think was a little stronger than now personally).
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#403 Postby Highteeld » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:42 pm

2019SEP29 002025 6.8 922.9 134.8 6.8 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.35 -73.51 EYE 28 IR 63.1 23.85 44.72 ARCHER GOES16 44.0
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#404 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:45 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:How high is NHC willing to go without Recon though? That looks to be T7.0 to me with the WMG pixel and the thick ring developing. A completed CMG ring would be T7.5 I believe.

A CMG ring wouldn't do anything to the data T unless it meets width requirements of 30 nm (0.5º latitude). Only then would the DT of 7.5 be achieved.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#405 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:46 pm

Highteeld wrote:2019SEP29 002025 6.8 922.9 134.8 6.8 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.35 -73.51 EYE 28 IR 63.1 23.85 44.72 ARCHER GOES16 44.0

Wow. That would be T7.0 very soon.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#406 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:53 pm

Wow, this morning I thought this was done for but now it's surpassed its first peak intensity! Maybe it can make it to cat 5 this time.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#407 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:01 pm

Given that Lorenzo is clearly RI'ing right now, the ADT is probably a better estimate than any subjective data with constraints. When Recon was in the storm, there was perfect agreement between Dvorak and the aircraft too.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#408 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:02 pm

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1178113388372791296


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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#409 Postby StruThiO » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:12 pm

This about sums it up

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1178113068561305606


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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#410 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:13 pm

Image

T7.0.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#411 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:18 pm

2019SEP29 005025 6.9 920.3 137.4 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.80 -74.03 EYE 25 IR 63.1 23.92 44.77 ARCHER GOES16 44.0
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#412 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:18 pm

If I were to visually assign an intensity, especially considering Dvorak has been underestimating the big ones, I'd probably go with 140 kt by advisory time if this held. But that would take a big leap of faith without Recon...

Is there a Basic Dvorak image of Isabel on September 11, 2003 for comparison? (i.e. when it became a cat 5 based on Dvorak alone)
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#413 Postby Highteeld » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:39 pm

Should be an objective T 7.0 given the thickness of the White Ring. Very rare for the Atlantic... Irma was the last storm to do this...
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#414 Postby StruThiO » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:46 pm

Welp.

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#415 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:47 pm

2019SEP29 012025 7.0 917.7 140.0 7.0 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.16 -74.59 EYE 24 IR 63.1 24.01 44.78 ARCHER GOES16 44.0
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#416 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:47 pm



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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#417 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:48 pm

Wow wasn't expecting this. Lorenzo is back in beast mode. What an impressive storm. He is gonna put the NAtl ACE to above average for the season.

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Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#418 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If I were to visually assign an intensity, especially considering Dvorak has been underestimating the big ones, I'd probably go with 140 kt by advisory time if this held. But that would take a big leap of faith without Recon...

Is there a Basic Dvorak image of Isabel on September 11, 2003 for comparison? (i.e. when it became a cat 5 based on Dvorak alone)

This is from 18Z September 11th, 2003. Assigned intensity was 145 kt.

Image
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#419 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:50 pm

Let me guess...135kt at 11PM advisory? :lol:
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#420 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:51 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Let me guess...135kt at 11PM advisory? :lol:

Or 140kt?
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