ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Jonny]

Is it crazy to say we still have our family Disney trip planned? Arriving Wednesday, the 4th. I have been keeping up with this thread for 4-5 days now and praying it misses Florida! Waiting until early Monday to make the call to cancel or not.

Even if Dorian does not make a direct hit to Orlando, chances are the area will still be impacted and all of the parks will be closed anyway. Flights will also get canceled/postponed. So I wouldn’t even bother, but that’s up to you. Just keep watching to see where the storm is headed.

[Weatherboy1]

I think the important thing to remember here is we're talking about a shift of a couple/few dozen miles. That's it. AND it's only one model cycle. If this trend persists overnight and or the recurve move is shown to occur further to the east, THEN and only then would I get more relieved here in South FL.

[ronjon]

Good news...hopefully its repeated for the 00z suite. Someone flipped the switch on the Florida hurricane shield, lol.

[invest man]

Any EPS members hitting the Carolinas?

Quite a few actually! Looks to me from Charleston to Hatteras is colored in. Most hook out. I think because a lot of those OTS brings the storm close to the fl/ga line then gets kicked out slightly east of NE motion. So where in the world did this un-penetrable high ridge go? I’m here in central ENC where Flo flooded out half our town! We don’t even need so much as a tropical sneeze!

[Steve]

Could someone with professional knowledge explain to us exactly how the models know how and what to predict? Someone mentioned earlier something about atmospheric machines regarding model predictions. What exactly are those and how do they work?

This isn’t a question that can really be answered in a post. If you are good with math, thermodynamics, fluid dynamics and general physics, NCEP & the Climate Prediction Center have explanation pages. Some are statistical, some are dynamic. They get fed data from a variety of sources and are programmed to output. They are very complex.

For most people, being able to identify what they show and understanding basic stuff like high and low pressure and wind currents, we can put 2 and 2 together.

[Jevo]

Feeling pretty good here in South Florida with the shifts in the last runs. I'm hoping a trend starts and I can watch this thing on someones live stream instead of my patio. Keeping an eye on the evening model runs that should have some new data from the planes.

[fci]

This is incredible, just 24 hrs ago everythig was pointing to S FL and now this from the Euro with only 15 members now showing a landfall in FL. Back to drinking

https://i.imgur.com/oyLuv76.png

Is it crazy to say we still have our family Disney trip planned? Arriving Wednesday, the 4th. I have been keeping up with this thread for 4-5 days now and praying it misses Florida! Waiting until early Monday to make the call to cancel or not.

By then a consensus will have been reached. IMO, I doubt it will miss Florida, and even if it does, impacts will still be felt.

Because the models are now trending towards a more Climatological result, I think we give the change more credence.

[Storm Battered]

Could someone with professional knowledge explain to us exactly how the models know how and what to predict? Someone mentioned earlier something about atmospheric machines regarding model predictions. What exactly are those and how do they work?

Would any of the following be of help?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=102873
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/info/ens_detbak.html

They are in the Tropical Reference Library here at Storm2k.http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=61

[Frank2]

Guess I should-a read this before calling the airline but its a hopeful sign. Still, models aren't reality...

[TTARider]

OIA Just halted all flights as of Monday

[Frank2]

Could someone with professional knowledge explain to us exactly how the models know how and what to predict? Someone mentioned earlier something about atmospheric machines regarding model predictions. What exactly are those and how do they work?

Very long ago I was an admin person for the folks who wrote the GFDL, CLIPER and I think the GFS models. From what I recall during their conference and journal articles, its based on interpreting present weather data in a map grid. The finer the grid the better the model (I might be wrong but that might be a very basic description)....

[Hammy]

NAM is further north but also faster and further west, FWIW. Can probably toss the intensity on that model though.

[Sciencerocks]

18z nam takes it into southern florida. Watch the other models trend south once again as they have done repeatedly.

[GeneratorPower]

I think the important thing to remember here is we're talking about a shift of a couple/few dozen miles. That's it. AND it's only one model cycle. If this trend persists overnight and or the recurve move is shown to occur further to the east, THEN and only then would I get more relieved here in South FL.

This is the problem with the geography of Florida. Tiny changes mean big difference in impact.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing is for sure the models have done better with the intensity side of things verses the track side which is normally their strong point.

[Aric Dunn]

icon is a good deal farther north and faster.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just looking at the difference between the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro. They are in close agreement at 12Z Monday with the position of Dorian, the GFS is about 50 or so miles N of the Euro, but pretty close. There is a subtle difference in how they depict the 500mb short wave... the GFS has the wave lifting out slightly faster, and is a little more shallow. The Euro shows it a little deeper, and a little slower. This imparts more of a slow down of Dorian from 12Z Mon - 12Z Tues on the Euro. The GFS doesn't slow down as much. Both then execute a N turn, at similar times, but the GFS has already crossed the coast. So a lot will depend on Dorian's forward speed of motion at 12Z Mon (assuming the models are close to being correct on the pattern)

[jlauderdal]

icon is a good deal farther north and faster.

faster than the gfs and euro, should go farther inland

[Kat5]

icon is a good deal farther north and faster.

faster than the gfs and euro, should go farther inland

North of Jupiter bound, correct me if I’m wrong.

[AutoPenalti]

ICON is a touch north, definitely faster. Landfall in WPB possible.