ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skillz305]

Just pretend I never said anything. I guess I came here to vent. Everything here in Central Florida is hectic and stressful as heck. I know in the long run its better to be prepared, of course, that's a fact. God might spare us here, I hope he does. I'm sure some of you know what I am speaking of when it comes to needing to vent after these long dreadful days of anticipation and preparing. The trend for an OTS storm is just seeming more and more likely. Of course there's the windshield wiper effect. Just gotta "wait-n-see" ... I've loved following Hurricanes since I was a kid. Must be because I was born in Miami, 1 month before Hurricane Andrew.

[TTARider]

Really interested to see how this 'unexpected' 270 motion is going to impact the forecast and the models.. I know the naked eye isnt the 'right' way to observe directional motion, but the last few hours can't be denied.. Starting to think the western erosion is giving Dorian more breathing room than previously anticipated.. If thats the case, this could get crazy fast..

And that, my friends, is why the cone is so dang wide after 72hrs... Little bit of forecaster CYA because mother nature may have a grand plan of her own.. And she doesn't want to share the 411 just yet..

[Captkeith2]

Made the decision at noon to dry dock our large passenger vessels tomorrow morning. For the time being it looks like we made the right decision. We will begin preps for rest of the fleet, shore facilities, and our crew and families on Sunday. Could be a worse version of Mathew for our island. Prayers that that it keeps moving east.

[birddogsc]

Longer loop here shows 6-ish hours of just north of west motion - with stair-stepping.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-96-1-100-4&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

[Ian2401]

barreling west

[jaxfladude]

Sorry already if asked when will they sample the upper level atmosphere again? So we in Florida still have to be prepared right until the NHC is sure enough to show the the future track of Dorian will be east off the Florida coast enough for minimal impacts, right?
Also how does the current motion of Dorian compare to the forecast and is it better or worse for Florida and the Bahamas?

[floridasun78]

Did they sampled the atmosphere north of Dorian today? To me the ridge looks stronger than what the models were showing earlier today. Very important how strong the Bermuda ridge is, any little more strength could push Dorian further west before stalling.

https://i.imgur.com/PaYwXVl.gif

we not sure what high will do but all forecast models want take it by weakness

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From NOAA mission that is just about to be back home. Satellite as of 11:43pm EDT.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Sorry already if asked when will they sample the upper level atmosphere again? So we in Florida still have to be prepared right until the NHC is sure enough to show the the future track of Dorian will be east off the Florida coast enough for minimal impacts, right?
Also how does the current motion of Dorian compare to the forecast and is it better or worse for Florida and the Bahamas?

FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49
A. 31/1200Z
B. NOAA9 2405A DORIAN
C. 31/0530Z ... Scheduled departure at 1:30am EDT
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

[NDG]

From NOAA mission that is just about to be back home. Satellite as of 11:43pm EDT.

https://i.imgur.com/edhCPhA.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/IGA217V.jpg

So did those dropsondes droped on their way back made it to the 0z models?

Edit: I now see that they were dropped after oz tonight so they did not made it to the models. 592 dm heights at h50 along the 29th latitude just north of Dorian.

[smithtim]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Uhhhh, the official landfall point is not far from you. That would be potentially deadly advice to not prepare based on that. You need to continue to treat this like it is coming your way. The error range at 4 days out is still over 150 miles either way.

Not to mention surge & swell straight out in front... so even if it does turn right before the coast and no direct landfall whatever town in right in front very well may have real storm surge. I remember Matthew, and while it didn't actually have a full landfall is kinda "bounced" right between new smyrna & cape Kennedy space center. At that time I had a condo on New Smyrna beach and we got saltwater in our house, the ocean came over... and we were on the west side of a1a

[TTARider]

Longer loop here shows 6-ish hours of just north of west motion - with stair-stepping.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-96-1-100-4&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

See it clearly.. The question is how this impacts the forecasting... Dorian is deeper and stronger than the forecast, and is now south of the forecasted points.. Sure this can be 'made up' in long term motion.. but the question remains... gonna get some sleep.. probably better for me to revisit in a few hours.. I think minute-watching is starting to make my brain melt tonight


I have an interesting viewpoint in that I don't have wishcast bias... Family in Tampa, I'm in the Orlando area, family in Jacksonville, and condo in New Smyrna...

[craptacular]

Recon problems summary for today:

According to FlightAware, NOAA G-IV "Gonzo" flys from Lakeland to Savannah, GA early this morning (0634z, 2:34AM EDT), instead of scheduled synoptics missions. Gulfstream is based in Savannah, so emergency repairs??
AF303 takes off from Keesler at 1502z on buoy drop mission, but turns around before Jacksonville and heads back to base.
AF307 has a non-tasked mission with a few sets of minobs starting at 1932z over the northern GOM, heading towards Florida, but that's all the data we see.
NOAA2 "Kermit" takes off from Lakeland at 2043z for invest mission.
At 2059z, according to FlightAware, TEAL77 (I assume that's AF307) took off from Homestead, climbed to 5000 feet, and looped back to land at 2115z.
AF307 takes off from Homestead (again) at 2304z and heads towards Dorian
According to FlightAware, Gonzo takes off from Savannah at 0022z (8:22pm EDT) and flies back to base at Lakeland. Hoping that means it's available for synoptics flights again.
AF307 drops to operational altitude and launches a dropsonde on the NW edge of Dorian at 0048z, then turns around and heads back WSW towards Nassau.
Around 0130z, after two center fixes, Kermit climbs to ~28K feet while heading north away from Dorian, then turns west and launches a bunch of dropsondes on the way back to Lakeland, where it appears to have just landed.
At 0147z, near Dunmore Town, Bahamas, AF307 makes an abrupt turn back to the NNE, flies that way for 40 minutes, then turns WNW and is currently crossing Florida in the general direction of Keesler.

Having fun yet?

[Aric Dunn]

Hello 26N let us take a walk together..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Sorry already if asked when will they sample the upper level atmosphere again? So we in Florida still have to be prepared right until the NHC is sure enough to show the the future track of Dorian will be east off the Florida coast enough for minimal impacts, right?
Also how does the current motion of Dorian compare to the forecast and is it better or worse for Florida and the Bahamas?

FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49
A. 31/1200Z
B. NOAA9 2405A DORIAN
C. 31/0530Z ... Scheduled departure at 1:30am EDT
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

That is unless they still have a mechanical problem. I see now that they haven't been going out lately due to a mechanical problem:
https://www.wfla.com/news/noaa-hurrican ... ze-dorian/

They didn't fly the last two missions that were scheduled. Not the one that was supposed to take off at 1:30am EDT Friday or the one at 1:30pm EDT Friday. I was wondering what was wrong with my recon system but the missions never flew.

[Ian2401]

bout to cross 72W still heading due W

[Yellow Evan]

Really unfourtante we don't have a plane in this thing right now given it's re-cooling of the cloud tops in recent frames and continued improvement in the eye defintion. This is making a run at Category 5.

[Hammy]

To the people giving the all clear, let's not forget Irma (and most models were further east, many offshore, after trending that way for days) and we all know what actually happened.



They may continue trending east, but that is by no means a certainty and they could just as easily start trending back west. It's still four days out.

[NDG]

Hello 26N let us take a walk together..

https://i.ibb.co/w00HjjY/3.gif

That is almost a due west heading during the past few hours.
Tonight's GFS forecasts it to be 25.95N & 72.87W tomorrow at 12z, it will have to start on a 295 deg heading to meet that position.

[Ian2401]

Hello 26N let us take a walk together..

https://i.ibb.co/w00HjjY/3.gif

That is almost a due west heading during the past few hours.
Tonight's GFS forecasts it to be 25.95N & 72.87W tomorrow at 12z, it will have to start on a 295 deg heading to meet that position.

at this speed its at now, it should clear 72.87W by 12z easily shouldn't it?