ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

To the people giving the all clear, let's not forget Irma (and most models were further east, many offshore, after trending that way for days) and we all know what actually happened.

https://i.imgur.com/sKjjARC.png

They may continue trending east, but that is by no means a certainty and they could just as easily start trending back west. It's still four days out.

Yep, lets not forget how far south and west it ended up in a short notice making landfall over northern Cuba before that turn to the north.

[Yellow Evan]

To the people giving the all clear, let's not forget Irma (and most models were further east, many offshore, after trending that way for days) and we all know what actually happened.

https://i.imgur.com/sKjjARC.png

There was a clear westward trend for Irma for days in the model runs in general, with a few exceptions. That hasn't been the case so far with Dorian, especially in the past 24 hours.

[Cypresso]

Just a few tidbits that I found interesting earlier regarding Dorian. LAKELAND, FL - #NOAA49 prepares for a Hurricane #Dorian reconnaissance mission with the first all female three-pilot flight crew, featuring Capt. Kristie Twining, Cmdr. Rebecca Waddington, and Lt. Lindsey Norman.

Florida Gov Ron DeSantis ordered the mobilization of 2,000 National Guard troops Friday, with 4,000 to be mobilized by the end of Saturday.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From NOAA mission that is just about to be back home. Satellite as of 11:43pm EDT.

https://i.imgur.com/edhCPhA.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/IGA217V.jpg

So did those dropsondes droped on their way back made it to the 0z models?

Edit: I now see that they were dropped after oz tonight so they did not made it to the models. 592 dm heights at h50 along the 29th latitude just north of Dorian.

I think it is the message found at any of the following links that normalls says if they got into the GFS.

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/tgstatus/
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/no/ ... dm.nfd.txt
https://w1.weather.gov/data/WNO/ADMNFD

Can't find anything helpful on this page:

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

A small archive of some recent NOUS42 KWNO messages.

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNO/nous42.chunk.html

I'm looking for confirmation that something like this is what it might say (edit, to be clear this is an example image):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6rxY7FV4AA ... name=small

I'll do some more looking.

[Hammy]

To the people giving the all clear, let's not forget Irma (and most models were further east, many offshore, after trending that way for days) and we all know what actually happened.

https://i.imgur.com/sKjjARC.png

There was a clear westward trend for Irma for days in the model runs in general, with a few exceptions. That hasn't been the case so far with Dorian, especially in the past 24 hours.

Out to the 96h point the models and track had been trending east for about a day to day and a half.

[Jr0d]

this thing is barreling west lol
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... orbar=data

No doubt. This will throw another monkey wrench into our computer models.

[Aric Dunn]

Hello 26N let us take a walk together..

https://i.ibb.co/w00HjjY/3.gif

That is almost a due west heading during the past few hours.
Tonight's GFS forecasts it to be 25.95N & 72.87W tomorrow at 12z, it will have to start on a 295 deg heading to meet that position.

at this speed its at now, it should clear 72.87W by 12z easily shouldn't it?

if it stays west at this speed it will be well before 12zand farther south by a good deal.

[psyclone]

Really interested to see how this 'unexpected' 270 motion is going to impact the forecast and the models.. I know the naked eye isnt the 'right' way to observe directional motion, but the last few hours can't be denied.. Starting to think the western erosion is giving Dorian more breathing room than previously anticipated.. If thats the case, this could get crazy fast..

And that, my friends, is why the cone is so dang wide after 72hrs... Little bit of forecaster CYA because mother nature may have a grand plan of her own.. And she doesn't want to share the 411 just yet..

That isn't how the cone works. the last point on the cone is the same diameter circle every time

[BobHarlem]

To the people giving the all clear, let's not forget Irma (and most models were further east, many offshore, after trending that way for days) and we all know what actually happened.

https://i.imgur.com/sKjjARC.png

There was a clear westward trend for Irma for days in the model runs in general, with a few exceptions. That hasn't been the case so far with Dorian, especially in the past 24 hours.

Out to the 96h point the models and track had been trending east for about a day to day and a half.

Except the UKMET, model which did show Cuba for Irma. However, for Dorian, UK just went to the out to sea idea (Was in the Gulf 24 hours ago).

[gfsperpendicular]

I'm not seeing a whole lot of north motion. Definitely looks closer to 270 than 300, at least to my untrained eye. If this motion continues, at what point does it start having track implications?

Also, can we read anything into the asymmetry of the CDO, which has been becoming progressively more pronounced recently? Does it indicate an EWRC? I know Levi mentioned that there could be a little bit of shear on Dorian still.

Still hoping for that minute chance of pure OTS, however unlikely.

[Hammy]

There was a clear westward trend for Irma for days in the model runs in general, with a few exceptions. That hasn't been the case so far with Dorian, especially in the past 24 hours.

Out to the 96h point the models and track had been trending east for about a day to day and a half.

Except the UKMET, model which did show Cuba for Irma. However, for Dorian, UK just went to the out to sea idea (Was in the Gulf 24 hours ago).

UKMET had been showing a SW dip into Miami up until recently so it hasn't exactly been a leader with Dorian.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From NOAA mission that is just about to be back home. Satellite as of 11:43pm EDT.

https://i.imgur.com/edhCPhA.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/IGA217V.jpg

So did those dropsondes droped on their way back made it to the 0z models?

Edit: I now see that they were dropped after oz tonight so they did not made it to the models. 592 dm heights at h50 along the 29th latitude just north of Dorian.

I think it is the message found at any of the following links that normalls says if they got into the GFS.

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/tgstatus/
https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/no/ ... dm.nfd.txt
https://w1.weather.gov/data/WNO/ADMNFD

Can't find anything helpful on this page:

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

A small archive of some recent NOUS42 KWNO messages.

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNO/nous42.chunk.html

I'm looking for confirmation that something like this is what it might say (edit, to be clear this is an example image):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6rxY7FV4AA ... name=small

I'll do some more looking.

Found this:
https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/realtime/

Under "Model Data Dump Tables" look for GFS and then the run you want. 0Z:
https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpro ... ndex.shtml

Then click "dropw".

DROPW is "Dropwinsonde (from TEMP DROP)"

Which gives:

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpro ... fs.015.gif

So I think there are some. A little over 20? I suppose most all of those are from within Dorian? Maybe someone else can help on that more.

Using Google, also found a bigger archive of those admin messages:
http://www.daculaweather.com/emwin/adm/2019_08_adm.htm

"2019" is the year. "08" is the month. Change that in the link to get an archive for the month.

[Aric Dunn]

So lets assume the models are correct with a recurve. well this puts us in the IRMA mode.. every wobble or prolonged westerly motion that keeps it even a few miles south shifts that recurve point.. now given the recurve point is only a 100 miles off shore all Dorian has to do is travel farther west sooner now or later and the recurve is inland..

this "IRMA" playground happens all the time.. so assuming the recurve point is roughly grand bahama island then areas from West palm north to cape Canaveral could still easily see this come in before the recurve..

[TTARider]

Really interested to see how this 'unexpected' 270 motion is going to impact the forecast and the models.. I know the naked eye isnt the 'right' way to observe directional motion, but the last few hours can't be denied.. Starting to think the western erosion is giving Dorian more breathing room than previously anticipated.. If thats the case, this could get crazy fast..

And that, my friends, is why the cone is so dang wide after 72hrs... Little bit of forecaster CYA because mother nature may have a grand plan of her own.. And she doesn't want to share the 411 just yet..

That isn't how the cone works. the last point on the cone is the same diameter circle every time

Understood, I was generalizing, not this storm/cone specifically.. it was more of a "that's why the cone has to be wide beyond 72 hours".. not just this one...

Hope I'm explaining what I mean clearly enough.. tired at this point, lol

[Jr0d]

I'm not seeing a whole lot of north motion. Definitely looks closer to 270 than 300, at least to my untrained eye. If this motion continues, at what point does it start having track implications?

Also, can we read anything into the asymmetry of the CDO, which has been becoming progressively more pronounced recently? Does it indicate an EWRC? I know Levi mentioned that there could be a little bit of shear on Dorian still.

Still hoping for that minute chance of pure OTS, however unlikely.

I was expecting the west turn, I was not expecting the apparent increase in forward speed. By the 5am advisory we will know if this is just a jog. My sleep deprived eyes see a fast run to the west.

[psyclone]

Really interested to see how this 'unexpected' 270 motion is going to impact the forecast and the models.. I know the naked eye isnt the 'right' way to observe directional motion, but the last few hours can't be denied.. Starting to think the western erosion is giving Dorian more breathing room than previously anticipated.. If thats the case, this could get crazy fast..

And that, my friends, is why the cone is so dang wide after 72hrs... Little bit of forecaster CYA because mother nature may have a grand plan of her own.. And she doesn't want to share the 411 just yet..

That isn't how the cone works. the last point on the cone is the same diameter circle every time

Understood, I was generalizing, not this storm/cone specifically.. it was more of a "that's why the cone has to be wide beyond 72 hours".. not just this one...

Hope I'm explaining what I mean clearly enough.. tired at this point, lol

I see how I could have misinterpreted. This storm has worn me out and tonight's encouraging trends are delightful.

[Hammy]

Found the Irma plot I was looking for. This is why it's never good to decide you're in the clear four days out.

[Ian2401]

is this moving faster than expected?

[AtlanticWind]

I'm not seeing a whole lot of north motion. Definitely looks closer to 270 than 300, at least to my untrained eye. If this motion continues, at what point does it start having track implications?

Also, can we read anything into the asymmetry of the CDO, which has been becoming progressively more pronounced recently? Does it indicate an EWRC? I know Levi mentioned that there could be a little bit of shear on Dorian still.

Still hoping for that minute chance of pure OTS, however unlikely.

The forecast has it reaching 25.9 at 8am this morning , seems to be right on track to me

[Blinhart]

I'm not seeing a whole lot of north motion. Definitely looks closer to 270 than 300, at least to my untrained eye. If this motion continues, at what point does it start having track implications?

Also, can we read anything into the asymmetry of the CDO, which has been becoming progressively more pronounced recently? Does it indicate an EWRC? I know Levi mentioned that there could be a little bit of shear on Dorian still.

Still hoping for that minute chance of pure OTS, however unlikely.

The forecast has it reaching 25.9 at 8am this morning , seems to be right on track to me

If it continues this almost due West movement, it might not reach 25.9 for a good 16 to 24 hours.