ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[typhoonty]

The impact of a faster Dorian would be a further west recurvature. The Icon is the model that keeps Dorian moving westward about 10 mph the next two days to right off of south Florida. The ridging would have less time to break down so the stall would occur closer to / on Florida.

[AtlanticWind]

I don't see where it's moving faster ,supposed to reach 72.8 at 8AM, seems about right

[BrandonJay21]

Can someone come smash my electronics, so I can go to bed? Patience is not my spiritual gift, and I just keep obsessively refreshing the forum. Must. Get. Sleep.

[WeatherEmperor]

Can someone come smash my electronics, so I can go to bed? Patience is not my spiritual gift, and I just keep obsessively refreshing the forum. Must. Get. Sleep.

Dont be so hard on yourself. I myself am not very patient either. Just take a few breaks to collect yourself. Go out for a walk or drive and come back later


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[typhoonty]

I don't see where it's moving faster ,supposed to reach 72.8 at 8AM, seems about right

Well, when the 2AM advisory comes out, let's see what longitude they mark it at. If they mark it at 72.0, that would be .6 degrees in 3 hours based on the 11PM position, there will be six hours to go after that. So if it maintained this level of speed, the 8AM longitude would be 72.0+.6+.6= 73.2, which is about ~30 miles further west.

[Jr0d]

Can someone come smash my electronics, so I can go to bed? Patience is not my spiritual gift, and I just keep obsessively refreshing the forum. Must. Get. Sleep.

I took sleeping meds..havent kicked in yet. My girl is also a weather nerd...so we are both attatched to our phones looking at weather data

Might as well try to stay up until the 2am advisory now.

[bamajammer4eva]

All wobbles aside: Damien is on track and not moving due west. Looks like it will cross 72.8 right around 25.9.

[BrandonJay21]

Can someone come smash my electronics, so I can go to bed? Patience is not my spiritual gift, and I just keep obsessively refreshing the forum. Must. Get. Sleep.

I took sleeping meds..havent kicked in yet. My girl is also a weather nerd...so we are both attatched to our phones looking at weather data

Might as well try to stay up until the 2am advisory now.

I opened my kindle to try to make it to 2. Doesn’t the... er... Euro or UK model run at 145? I’m in Orlando, and have been getting whiplash with this system. I may have gone into my initial hurricane supply, and will probably need to go back to the store. (Only for the fun stuff. I’ve got water and pb&j up the whazoo)

[Meteorcane]

I just calculated that Dorian will reach 72.80 W at its current speed sometime in the vicinity of 1130 UTC maybe 30 minutes faster than the NHC track, but honestly that is approximately the margin of error with my calculation. So it is maybe moving slightly faster but not like remarkably faster.

[StPeteMike]

The northern island of Caicos is pretty much 72 latitude and it was due north to slightly past there by the latest satellite image I could find at 1240 am.

[cdavis6287]

My goodness. Nail biting to say the least. I am a first responder (police) that lives in Port Saint Lucie. I have been obsessed with weather my whole life but damn..Irma Matthew and now Dorian have my head spinning!!
Waiting to hear if I go to emergency scheduling, which sucks because I can't ride out the storm with my wife and three kids (young).
Busted my behind putting up shutters and doing lawn work while I am off.
I pray this thing goes away but there is that atmosphere with Irma and Matthew that is unknown.
I am going to stay up late, like the most of you to watch the models.
God bless all of you and your families in the path, or whatever path transpires.

[FLpanhandle91]

Dorian has been moving pretty much due west for over 3 hours now. Maybe 275°.

[bamajammer4eva]

Dorian has been moving pretty much due west for over 3 hours now. Maybe 275°.

I'm pretty sure the NHC wouldn't consider 3 hours storm movement. It has made a good wobble west and if that continues probably another 3 hours then they may consider it storm motion. They have mentioned in their discussions before storm motion has been ___ degrees over the past _ hours. I think it is 6 hours but cant find that. 6 would make sense though since that is how often advisories come out.

[Mouton]

Dorian has been moving pretty much due west for over 3 hours now. Maybe 275°.

It looks pretty much the same to me. Meanwhile, our barometer in NE Fl is going up! or an indication a sliver of the high is building back to the west. I really do not see what the models are seeing with the timing of these shifts to the east. I am worried this will continue farther west than predicted and when it makes a turn to the N. By then it could not make much difference as it will run up the spine or off the west coast before cutting back across. Interestingly, drilling rigs in the central GOM have begun removing their personnel "just in case".

On that note, time for sleep for me now. Back at it after 7AM. I hope to see it over 26N by then but I would be surprised were that to happen.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1167663417601212417

[ozonepete]

My goodness. Nail biting to say the least. I am a first responder (police) that lives in Port Saint Lucie. I have been obsessed with weather my whole life but damn..Irma Matthew and now Dorian have my head spinning!!
Waiting to hear if I go to emergency scheduling, which sucks because I can't ride out the storm with my wife and three kids (young).
Busted my behind putting up shutters and doing lawn work while I am off.
I pray this thing goes away but there is that atmosphere with Irma and Matthew that is unknown.
I am going to stay up late, like the most of you to watch the models.
God bless all of you and your families in the path, or whatever path transpires.

Good luck and prayers to you and your family as well buddy! Hang in and feel free to ask any questions here if you need to.

[Aric Dunn]

So from what I have plotted it is moving about 11 mph at about 275 for the last 4 hours..

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like it took a jog more northward for the last 4 frames (20 minutes), right as it crosses 72°W.

https://imgur.com/a/4aGLpFU

[HDGator]

Dorian appears to be moving West much faster than the NHC 11pm track guidance.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-15-48-0-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

Based on GOES_East IR he's crossing 72W at or just before at 05:46UTC.

The 11pm NHC guidance had the following forecast track:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 28.3N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 30.8N 81.2W 90 KT 105 MPH

Based on this, Dorian should have crossed 72W at about 06:50UTC.
That looks to be about an hour ahead of schedule. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
What implications does this have?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Showing where Dorian is in relation to Bahamas radar.

Satellite at 1:58am EDT.
Bahamas radar at 1:50am EDT.

Bahamas radar at the bottom of this page:
http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/
Or simply go here for full screen:
http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

Here is the Bahamas weather service Facebook page which occasionally posts radar images too:
https://www.facebook.com/242MetService/