ATL: DORIAN - Models

[PavelGaborik10]

OZ runs are huge.

[BobHarlem]

18z HMON is noticeably faster at hour 33. Hits Abaco Midday Sunday with a cat 5 8 hours sooner than the 12z did.

[gatorcane]

That SW wobble on the 18Z GFS is a bit concerning. Plus the run is more south of the 12Z on its approach to SE Florida. If it shifts south just a bit more and the SW dip is a bit more pronounced, it could come ashore Palm Beach County. ICON/HMON/NAM insist on a SW dip. Perhaps because they depict a more intense cyclone being steered by 300MB. Timeframe is around 4 days so still plenty of room for shifts.

[KWT]

HMON coming in further NW through 24 hours.

It is a little north of where it was on the 12z run, though still south of most of the other runs at 48hrs.

ICON also has moved further north relative to where it was by 48hrs compared to the 12z run, though still has a pretty impressive WSW/SW dive. Can't rule it out given how it nailed the eastward stint earlier in Dorian's track.

[Blinhart]

Could the models not initializing Dorian strong enough affect their projected path?

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

I'm not a Pro or anyone with any meteorological classes, but if I remember correctly from past storms, they do have some effect on the projected path.

[Aric Dunn]

HMON is wsw from 48 to 54 hrs so far.

[gatorcane]

HMON is wsw from 48 to 54 hrs so far.

[AubreyStorm]

18z HMON is noticeably faster at hour 33. Hits Abaco Midday Sunday with a cat 5 8 hours sooner than the 12z did.

Picture? WOW!

[gatorcane]

18Z HMON moving WSW just south of Grand Bahama

[gatorcane]

18Z HMON moving WSW just south of Grand Bahama

[Aric Dunn]

HMON 60 hours
note: this is just random postion along the track. not all are included..

[AubreyStorm]

18Z HMON moving WSW just south of Grand Bahama

https://i.postimg.cc/MG7GwLf5/hmon-mslp-wind-05-L-21.png

Cat 5.... OMGGGGGGGGGGG

[KWT]

HMON is wsw from 48 to 54 hrs so far.

Both HMON and ICON are pretty stubbornly sticking to this WSW motion. I think tomorrows motion will give us a good clue of whether this is ever going to be realistic and just how westerly the motion is.

NAM 3km also heads WSW fwiw.

[gatorcane]

HMON is wsw from 48 to 54 hrs so far.

Both HMON and ICON are pretty stubbornly sticking to this WSW motion. I think tomorrows motion will give us a good clue of whether this is ever going to be realistic and just how westerly the motion is.

Maybe because those models show CAT 5s and are steered by 300MB?

[kevin]

Just saw a few posts in the discussion thread about the latest recon measuring 946/947 mbar. Is it normal for an intensifying hurricane like this to be so much stronger than many of the global models are at 0 hours?

[AdamFirst]

HWRF going bonkers on intensity
150 knots at 48 hours east of Abaco

[gatorcane]

HMON with a small loop at 72 hours

[supercane4867]

The City of Freeport in the Bahamas would be wiped clean if HMON verifies...

[Nimbus]

HMON with a small loop at 72 hours

The stall indicates lack of steering at all levels.

[orion]

Could someone with professional knowledge explain to us exactly how the models know how and what to predict? Someone mentioned earlier something about atmospheric machines regarding model predictions. What exactly are those and how do they work?

For more info and explanation on ensemble prediction systems, this is a pretty good site from NCEP:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/