ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Its was very close again..

so we wait for the center to figure itself out and its forward motion is still a problem. even 8 to 12 hours slower and no out to sea.

[Aric Dunn]

144 to 168 its got trapped. but then split ? lol timing is going to very important with this.

in the 500mb level anyway..

850 vort turns north ..

[LarryWx]

144 to 168 its got trapped. but then split ? lol timing is going to very important with this.

in the 500mb level anyway..

850 vort turns north ..

Aric,
This Euro run was initialized better than any previous one (center further east) and it went OTS. So, this only serves to increase my confidence that we aren’t going to have to sweat this one out in the SE US. At this point, I’d be absolutely shocked if this were to become a threat again.

[Aric Dunn]

144 to 168 its got trapped. but then split ? lol timing is going to very important with this.

in the 500mb level anyway..

850 vort turns north ..

Aric,
This Euro run was initialized better than any previous one (center further east) and it went OTS. So, this only serves to increase my confidence that we aren’t going to have to sweat this one out in the SE US. At this point, I’d be absolutely shocked if this were to become a threat again.

Thats all good. except we dont have a well defined center we have a stalled system.. all the models keep moving it and it keeps just drifting around..

So I am not going to jump on board until its consolidates and actually starts moving..

we have 2 vorts rotating around northern circ is going to swing west here shortly what that does who knows.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is that a Loop like Jeanne in 2004?

[Aric Dunn]

FYI.. JMA which is typically heavy on the troughs.. traps this and drives it SW..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 312&fh=-60

[floridasun78]

JMA not trust models not use by nhc

[tgenius]

FYI.. JMA which is typically heavy on the troughs.. traps this and drives it SW..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 312&fh=-60

Sure looks like JMA does a loop back down to SFL on that run (or whats left of it)

[tpr1967]

FYI.. JMA which is typically heavy on the troughs.. traps this and drives it SW..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 312&fh=-60

Sure looks like JMA does a loop back down to SFL on that run (or whats left of it)

Thinking this my dive back SW and west if weaker system. The 00Z GFS Showed that last night.

[Aric Dunn]

I count about 20 12z EPS that get left behind, loop, over move ese to se. out 132 hours.

That is very worth noting.

[BobHarlem]

A few folks are trying too hard here to get a landfall out of something that's not there for my comfort here (aka really really reaching). If this thing keeps forming east it may just not even go over the Bahamas .

[boulderrr]

[LarryWx]

I count about 20 12z EPS that get left behind, loop, over move ese to se. out 132 hours.

That is very worth noting.

https://i.ibb.co/0FW70tz/Capture.png

Later on in the 12Z EPS run, I counted about 5 actual TCs (10%) that go into the Gulf and about 6 (12%) that either hit or skim somewhere within NC to NE US. I can’t see the N.C.-NE US option now but I won’t yet completely eliminate in my mind the loop to S FL and/or Gulf. Regardless, the overwhelming best chance per the EPS remains OTS.

[Nuno]

A few folks are trying too hard here to get a landfall out of something that's not there for my comfort here (aka really really reaching). If this thing keeps forming east it may just not even go over the Bahamas .

And a few folks are too readily dismissive and ready to accept whatever the models say despite the continued stalling and lack of a defined center. Let's just track and see what happens. It probably will go out to sea, but the steering set up could be interesting.

[LarryWx]

Note about 12Z EPS: One of the TCs that gets into the Gulf within 240 hours is not from Nine. But I definitely see 5 of the 51 members there (10%) from NINE. itself.

[LarryWx]

I just checked a different source, Weathernerds, and it actually shows not just 5 but 7 of the 51 12Z EPS members (14%) with something going into the Gulf from NINE, itself. So, I think Aric is right that we can't ignore the chance. But still an overwhelming majority recurve safely OTS.

[Aric Dunn]

I just checked a different source, Weathernerds, and it actually shows not just 5 but 7 of the 51 12Z EPS members (14%) with something going into the Gulf from NINE, itself. So, I think Aric is right that we can't ignore the chance. But still an overwhelming majority recurve safely OTS.

IT has to start moving now like the models keep showing or the models will continue to play catch up like they have been for days.

and if this southern vort takes over then everything is all messed up again lol

[TheDreamTraveler]

How people can come to a conclusion that the storm has a defined path out to sea when it hasn't even fully developed yet is beyond me. Especially given the pattern this storm is going to be in? Wait until we have a well defined center before saying you know where this thing is going. There's quite a few meteorologists saying that this has a chance to impact the east coast, but at the same time it could go out to sea too. I feel like this conversation always happens early on before a storm truly forms.

[Aric Dunn]

Very distinct 3 camps..

1. Out to sea...

2. stall then nw towards carolinas

3. then loop back sw into florida and gilf.

[boca]

Looks like quite a few loop it back towards South Florida but majority take this OTS but 9 is still forming so who knows.