ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

[GCANE]

Looks like a weak PV Streamer, from the ULL to its south west, is trying to hang over the west quad of Dorian.
That would explain the lopsided IR presentation.
This needs to clear out before any significant strengthening can resume.

[birdwomn]

Wow, Dorian remains very strong!!!!!!
144.9 mph winds by SFMR


105200 2549N 07238W 6970 02739 9542 +137 +133 172099 118 126 016 00
105230 2550N 07236W 6920 02907 9670 +112 //// 165127 131 122 032 05

Can someone please point me to I guide to interpret this data? I am more of an observer and used to know, but have forgotten a bit. Or maybe I need coffee?

[gatorcane]

Wild swings in the models the past 36 hours. We go from slicing the state in half to a good majority of the models not even making landfall now. The slowdown the models were showing a couple days ago was the big clue. Florida is by no means out of the woods but you got to have a strong ridge to drive such a storm into Florida which is rare to have for storms that approach Florida from the east. That is why most of South Florida’s threats are from the south where storms recurve through the state from the Caribbean particularly the Western Caribbean. The Bahamas on the other hand, though not far from South Florida are usually not so lucky.

[Airboy]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 11:12Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 22
Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 10:50:13Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.79N 72.77W
B. Center Fix Location: 291 statute miles (468 km) to the E (80°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,628m (8,622ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 135° at 5kts (From the SE at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (119.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the SW (234°) of center fix at 10:48:35Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 321° at 111kts (From the NW at 127.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SW (234°) of center fix at 10:48:23Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 126kts (145.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the ENE (72°) of center fix at 10:52:08Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 164° at 131kts (From the SSE at 150.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) of center fix at 10:52:37Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,067m (10,062ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,081m (10,108ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 131kts (~ 150.8mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) from the flight level center at 10:52:37

[GCANE]

Eye diameter: 12nm
944mb
Dewpoint 4C
Core temp: 22C @ 700mb, 11C Delta

[Blown Away]

Large group of Euro ensembles have a distinct SW dip near SE Bahamas, still looks like the FL east coast would get a brush, but that will be hairy to watch if it happens...

[NDG]

Wow, Dorian remains very strong!!!!!!
144.9 mph winds by SFMR


105200 2549N 07238W 6970 02739 9542 +137 +133 172099 118 126 016 00
105230 2550N 07236W 6920 02907 9670 +112 //// 165127 131 122 032 05

Can someone please point me to I guide to interpret this data? I am more of an observer and used to know, but have forgotten a bit. Or maybe I need coffee?

The 4 most important columns:

1: extrap sea level pressure
2: wind direction in degrees (first 3 digits) and speed at flight level (last 3 digits)
3: maximum flight level winds
4: estimated surface winds by SFMR instrument

[Chris90]

Wow, Dorian remains very strong!!!!!!
144.9 mph winds by SFMR


105200 2549N 07238W 6970 02739 9542 +137 +133 172099 118 126 016 00
105230 2550N 07236W 6920 02907 9670 +112 //// 165127 131 122 032 05

Can someone please point me to I guide to interpret this data? I am more of an observer and used to know, but have forgotten a bit. Or maybe I need coffee?

I recommend going to tropicalatlantic.com, it's the site run by our fellow member Chris_in_Tampa (sorry if I got that username a bit wrong, going off pure memory from reading the boards).
You can follow the real time recon and he's got all other past recon archived as well.
It'll break all this information down into sections that are categorized so you know exactly what you're looking at. You can click on things like the High Density observations to find information like this broken down, and you can also select other sections like dropsondes to see all the profiles for the drops they've done, etc. Just go to the reconnaissance section of the website. I highly recommend going and checking it out and exploring a bit. It makes reading the recon data so much easier in my opinion.

[Nimbus]

Large group of Euro ensembles have a distinct SW dip near SE Bahamas, still looks like the FL east coast would get a brush, but that will be hairy to watch if it happens...

06Z HWRF showing a a much further north solution.

[WAcyclone]

Sunrise over Dorian:

[Visioen]

Looks like a weak PV Streamer, from the ULL to its south west, is trying to hang over the west quad of Dorian.
That would explain the lopsided IR presentation.
This needs to clear out before any significant strengthening can resume.

https://i.imgur.com/Dw0RxGp.gif

https://i.imgur.com/fhSa0MO.png

Shouldn't the arrow around the ULL be pointing counter-clockwise?

[NDG]

Close up loop of Dorian this morning

[Chris90]

NE eyewall dropsonde is similar to the one in an earlier mission from yesterday, winds seem to be mixing down a bit more effectively now though.

Yesterday measured a max wind of 168kts with 147kt average in the lowest 500m, and 132kts in lowest 150m.

Dropsonde just now measured a max wind of 166kts with 142kts in lowest 500m, and 143kts in lowest 150m.

Just to avoid the question that seems to always arise, these are instantaneous winds that are sampled as the dropsonde descends through the atmosphere to the surface, they are NOT sustained winds.

[flamingosun]

Evacuation of patients at Cape Canaveral Hospital is already underway.

[Kat5]

Seems to be heading WNW at a slower pace. Might make the turn further away from Florida, and hopefully the Bahamas too.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1167762277241634821

[Canelaw99]

Looks like a weak PV Streamer, from the ULL to its south west, is trying to hang over the west quad of Dorian.
That would explain the lopsided IR presentation.
This needs to clear out before any significant strengthening can resume.


https://i.imgur.com/fhSa0MO.png

Shouldn't the arrow around the ULL be pointing counter-clockwise?

Doesn’t that create kind if a funnel towards FL for the storm? Between that counter clockwise ULL and the clockwise winds above??

[KWT]

Track over the last hour so is no more than 275, or a touch north of West.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The 8 am position is a little off from where the 11 pm advisory forecasted it last night:

INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH

8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 25.8°N 73.0°W