ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Honestly can’t wait for the G-IV samples to come in. These will be key.

[caneman]

Moving due West at 12 mph on8 am advisory. No slow down yet

[gatorcane]

So what are the chances Dorian misses the Bahamas and the US entirely? Latest HWRF moves this north of the Bahamas.

[ObsessedMiami]

The NW quad looks like it's getting hit with a bit of shear or dry air, probably nothing major, but a bit of that section is getting eroded.

Was about to post the same thing. Definitely looks weaker. Cloud pattern on west side not looking as good. Looking more like Dorian may miss the East U.S. Coast (at least the center). May pass a little north of the Bahamas, too.

Could end up being all hype and bark with no bite, and we'd get some nice swells out of it.

Pattern's quite different this year vs last two with a lot of big troughs and strong highs coming south into the northern half of US.

Not a fan of the word “hype”, especially at this stage of the game.

[CFLHurricane]

So what are the chances Dorian misses the Bahamas and the US entirely? Latest HWRF moves this north of the Bahamas.

Missing the Bahamas- close to 0%

Missing Florida- looks like 50% from the latest cone.

[flamingosun]

Options for flying out of Florida are dwindling fast. Various airlines have already cancelled a few flights, with more doubtless to come.
The Orlando and Daytona airports will close down completely as of 2 AM Monday. Miami will close when TS force winds are recorded there.

[Visioen]

Looks like a weak PV Streamer, from the ULL to its south west, is trying to hang over the west quad of Dorian.
That would explain the lopsided IR presentation.
This needs to clear out before any significant strengthening can resume.


https://i.imgur.com/fhSa0MO.png

Shouldn't the arrow around the ULL be pointing counter-clockwise?

Doesn’t that create kind if a funnel towards FL for the storm? Between that counter clockwise ULL and the clockwise winds above??

Yes, which is one of the reasons it is still moving west at that point. But when it gets closer to Florida this effect weakens.

[KWT]

So what are the chances Dorian misses the Bahamas and the US entirely? Latest HWRF moves this north of the Bahamas.

Possible, but most of the models are already too far north even just 6hrs into their run. I suspect it does hit the northern Bahamas and the models have wind wiped too far the opposite direction now.

Looking much better for Florida now though it has to be said.

Motion still looks a hair north of due west, probably 275, you can see the northern eyewall creep over the 26N latitude line, but its not much north of due west.

[caneman]

Shouldn't the arrow around the ULL be pointing counter-clockwise?

Doesn’t that create kind if a funnel towards FL for the storm? Between that counter clockwise ULL and the clockwise winds above??

Yes, which is one of the reasons it is still moving west at that point. But when it gets closer to Florida this effect weakens.

I'm not sure how much it will weaken. It sure looks like that high has far more influence. Anyone else notice in water loop that there seems to be a thumb ridge that has protruded out and more over the system now? Or am I seeing things? Is this now accounting for the due west and 12 mph motion now? If it maintains its influence just 5 or 6 hours longer than forecasted, it really changes things

[txwatcher91]

142kts flight level just found

[Blown Away]

So what are the chances Dorian misses the Bahamas and the US entirely? Latest HWRF moves this north of the Bahamas.

Bahama miss on current trend 50/50 now without crazy 36 hour stall...

95% I don’t put up my back breaking shutters and watch football today!!!

[Airboy]

From dropesonde approach the center from north:
952mb (28.12 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 25.0°C (77°F) 55° (from the NE) 118 knots (136 mph)
925mb 257m (843 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.4°C (72°F) 65° (from the ENE) 131 knots (151 mph)

[toad strangler]

Wild swings in the models the past 36 hours. We go from slicing the state in half to a good majority of the models not even making landfall now. The slowdown the models were showing a couple days ago was the big clue. Florida is by no means out of the woods but you got to have a strong ridge to drive such a storm into Florida which is rare to have for storms that approach Florida from the east. That is why most of South Florida’s threats are from the south where storms recurve through the state from the Caribbean particularly the Western Caribbean. The Bahamas on the other hand, though not far from South Florida are usually not so lucky.

I noticed that slowdown approaching the FL E Coast during 18z guidance on Thursday and tried to explain that it was a significant development. It was brushed off here but that’s cool. I still haven’t touched my shutters yet.

[jlauderdal]

Wild swings in the models the past 36 hours. We go from slicing the state in half to a good majority of the models not even making landfall now. The slowdown the models were showing a couple days ago was the big clue. Florida is by no means out of the woods but you got to have a strong ridge to drive such a storm into Florida which is rare to have for storms that approach Florida from the east. That is why most of South Florida’s threats are from the south where storms recurve through the state from the Caribbean particularly the Western Caribbean. The Bahamas on the other hand, though not far from South Florida are usually not so lucky.

I noticed that slowdown approaching the FL E Coast during 18z guidance on Thursday and tried to explain that it was a significant development. It was brushed off here but that’s cool. I still haven’t touched my shutters yet.

Some brushed it off, veterans of this stuff didnt

[GCANE]

Looks like a weak PV Streamer, from the ULL to its south west, is trying to hang over the west quad of Dorian.
That would explain the lopsided IR presentation.
This needs to clear out before any significant strengthening can resume.

https://i.imgur.com/Dw0RxGp.gif

https://i.imgur.com/fhSa0MO.png

Shouldn't the arrow around the ULL be pointing counter-clockwise?

Thanks

[KWT]

So what are the chances Dorian misses the Bahamas and the US entirely? Latest HWRF moves this north of the Bahamas.

Bahama miss on current trend 50/50 now without crazy 36 hour stall...

95% I don’t put up my back breaking shutters and watch football today!!!

I'd be surprised, given the models that miss Bahamas are already too far north. HMON currently looks good with regards to track in the short term and it hits the northern islands. Whether or not its a landfall, not sure, but I'd feel confident about them getting hurricane force winds.

[Chris90]

There was a flagged 136kt SFMR wind directly after that 142kt flight level wind, and that 136kt flagged reading was then followed by 127kts unflagged.

I'd say it's 130kts now. He's making that Cat 5 run I think.

Also, just to note, but those 142kt flight level winds were not at 700mb. They're flying around 750mb right now actually.

[GCANE]

70mm/hr rain rate.
Strong enough to maintain Cat 4 and possible increase to Cat 5

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1167762389678219268

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1167772647624720384