ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Eye maybe getting saturated. Measured temp, 16.9C and dewpoint, 16.3C are close.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think the 136 kt SFMR is legit. I think you can make a conservative argument for 130 kt intensity, but 135 kt could also be justified. Either way, Dorian is still intensifying and is now approaching category 5 intensity.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1167771518677454848

[hohnywx]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1167762389678219268

These photos from the eyewall are always a sight to behold

[sponger]

Great news for the entire Florida East Coast! We are nowhere near out of the woods but this forecast track will save billions and lives. Lets hope it does not revert back like Matthew's track did.

[supercane4867]

130kt intensity estimate should be on target, in line with FL->Sfc winds. Very close to CAT5 but not there yet.

[abajan]

So what are the chances Dorian misses the Bahamas and the US entirely? Latest HWRF moves this north of the Bahamas.

Missing the Bahamas- close to 0%

Missing Florida- looks like 50% from the latest cone.

According to Google, Coopers Town in Abaco is at 0 feet above mean sea level. Hopefully, everyone has evacuated.

[supercane4867]

No concentric eyewall but the western side looks weak, windshear?

[GCANE]

The diabatic ridge, located SE of the CoC and created by outflow, may deepen more than expected if Dorian continues to ramp up.
This will pull Dorain back and essentially slow down the track.
Very subtle but could see more profound shifts in the forecast track.

[underthwx]

8 am advisory from NHC headline says recon plane finds Dorian even stronger..145....moving westward...i don't trust this storm

[WeatherOrKnot]

The diabatic ridge, located SE of the CoC and created by outflow, may deepen more than expected if Dorian continues to ramp up.
This will pull Dorain back and essentially slow down the track.
Very subtle but could see more profound shifts in the forecast track.

https://i.imgur.com/HT02xZB.png

https://i.imgur.com/lviQchQ.png

Shifts in which direction?

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

The diabatic ridge, located SE of the CoC and created by outflow, may deepen more than expected if Dorian continues to ramp up.
This will pull Dorain back and essentially slow down the track.
Very subtle but could see more profound shifts in the forecast track.

https://i.imgur.com/HT02xZB.png

https://i.imgur.com/lviQchQ.png

Shifts in which direction?

Excellent question

[boca]

What kinds of shifts in the track are you referring to?

[La Sirena]

The diabatic ridge, located SE of the CoC and created by outflow, may deepen more than expected if Dorian continues to ramp up.
This will pull Dorain back and essentially slow down the track.
Very subtle but could see more profound shifts in the forecast track.

https://i.imgur.com/HT02xZB.png

https://i.imgur.com/lviQchQ.png

Shifts in which direction?

Excellent question

Well, that was a perfect response lol! I spit coffee when I read that....needed the humor

[hipshot]

The diabatic ridge, located SE of the CoC and created by outflow, may deepen more than expected if Dorian continues to ramp up.
This will pull Dorain back and essentially slow down the track.
Very subtle but could see more profound shifts in the forecast track.

https://i.imgur.com/HT02xZB.png

https://i.imgur.com/lviQchQ.png

Shifts in which direction?

Excellent question

Seems like it would be a matter of which is the stronger, the high to the north, the low to the SE or the low to the SW. Could be a tough call.

[underthwx]

What is the latest news on potential evacuations for yall in Florida?...it must be weighing heavy on officials minds...tough call to make.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167782628059226113

[Visioen]

The diabatic ridge, located SE of the CoC and created by outflow, may deepen more than expected if Dorian continues to ramp up.
This will pull Dorain back and essentially slow down the track.
Very subtle but could see more profound shifts in the forecast track.

https://i.imgur.com/HT02xZB.png

https://i.imgur.com/lviQchQ.png

The same would apply then to the high to it's north, pretty much cancelling out the effect. Altough it's probably more complicated than that.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167778380227502080

[1900hurricane]

No concentric eyewall but the western side looks weak, windshear?

https://i.imgur.com/GfDsHf3.jpg

Looks like either light shear just below anvil level or possibly a pocket of upper level subsidence right on the NW fringe from ridging.