ATL: DORIAN - Models

[NFLnut]

Dorian is no Floyd. The setup is completely different

Matthew?

More like Frances if I have to pick one. Just maybe further east

Frances entered Florida around Brevard county and moved northwest across the entire state, exiting into the GOM. Are you sure you meant Frances?

[tolakram]

Latest error plot. Focus on the kilometer error at 96 hours. Best model is 190 km, euro is 310.

There should be NO surprises if Dorian doesn't go where you think it will. The only way to reduce the error is to get closer to landfall.



source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Guys note that we are still roughly 72 hours before any sort of landfall, things can change just as quickly as today.

Best post in the thread.

At this time Irma was forceast to scrap the florida east coast.

Of course the models we're 100 miles off

Do not let your guard down

[ConvergenceZone]

Dorian is no Floyd. The setup is completely different

Matthew?

I don’t think it will get as close as Matthew. The next NHC advisory will almost certainly be offshore and I believe the shifts east will continue. Just my opinion. It seems climatology and current Synoptics combined are pointing to a much better track for all of us in Florida. I for one am feeling much better tonight.

I agree! Although there is still an outside chance this storm will still hit Florida, it's looking better and better with each passing model run, and you can now officially say that all of the models are now trending east....The best case is that they continue to trend east and not only miss Florida, but also miss the islands as well, but not sure it will be able to get North of the islands or not. But yes, feeling much much much better than this last night and even much better than this afternoon...........

I think everyone is feeling better, hence the slow amount of posting on this board compared to 24 hours ago....

[NDG]

Amazing model swings just 4 days out. Check out the 00Z tracks. Night and day from 24 hours ago. IN fact TVCN recurves with no US landfall:

https://i.postimg.cc/T3PFtpnf/05-L-tracks-00z.png

And TVCN goes N of the Bahamas... Might be a total miss... Wow amazing swing...

Still brings the eyewall to the extreme northern Bahamas.

[boulderrr]

Does anyone know where the OFCL plot came from for this? It shows Dorian remaining offshore and bending NE toward hour 120, which the latest NHC forecast does not show.

[Blinhart]

Everyone also has to remember that all these models that are running now or in the past 3 hours do not have the most current information about strength and pressure, so you got to take them with a grain of salt.

I really think this will end up going further South and West than all these models are showing, I think the ICON will be more in line than what we all thought. Maybe the German Model will get it correct...

[fci]

Guys note that we are still roughly 72 hours before any sort of landfall, things can change just as quickly as today.

The trend is your friend!!

[BobHarlem]

Wrong thread. But I'd caution with the RI that's happening tonight to really buy any of the models. Florida isn't an outside chance, it's more like 50/50.

[Nimbus]

Yes the steering currents will collapse and just be drifting north due to weak currents off our coast.

According to Levi Cohen the stall is partially due to the top of a high pressure circulation in the gulf pushing ESE at the ~300 mb level. The trough to the north of that high apparently misses. So its going to be critical for Dorian to keep gaining latitude and get north of 26N.
Trough could dig more than forecast which would simplify the solution and add a lot of confidence to the recurve scenario, but its still a few days out yet.

[gatorcane]

Can somebody post the 12Z UKMET ensembles? Levi showed them and I was surprised how many were into SE Florida.

[NDG]

Guys note that we are still roughly 72 hours before any sort of landfall, things can change just as quickly as today.

More like 84-96 hrs.

[BobHarlem]

Can somebody post the 12Z UKMET ensembles? Levi showed them and I was surprised how many were into SE Florida.

from: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo

[MrJames]

Can somebody post the 12Z UKMET ensembles? Levi showed them and I was surprised how many were into SE Florida.

12Z UKMet Ensembles

[gatorcane]

Wow thanks

That’s a lot into Florida

[SFLcane]

Were did the 18z Euro finish?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Were did the 18z Euro finish?

38 hrs over Grand Bahama

[NDG]

The shortwave "forecasted" to form and swing down across the northern Plains and Great Lakes early next week will be very important, that is what will be weakening the ridging north of Dorian by then, how strong it ends up being that is what is going to dictate its track. IMO.

[sma10]

Levi Cowan's video on the main tropicaltidbits.com website is ABSOLUTE required viewing for anyone following this storm. It's a mix of hard science and common sense.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167613286357118978