ATL: DORIAN - Models

[rdcrds]

Makes no sense all those U.K.met models going the opposite again.


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[catskillfire51]

Makes no sense all those U.K.met models going the opposite again.


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Same thing people were saying when ukmet had it missing PR, but it verified. It's hard to point out exactly what one model sees that another doesn't.

[gatorcane]

The UKMET ensembles look a lot different than the European ensembles.

[TheProfessor]

0z NAM is a tick faster and further northwest of the 18z run.

[beachman80]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1167613286357118978

This is great news. Looking better and better for us here in FL

[Blinhart]

Can somebody post the 12Z UKMET ensembles? Levi showed them and I was surprised how many were into SE Florida.

12Z UKMet Ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/Rrakajc.png

One into Vermillion Bay, and quite a few into the panhandle.

[TheProfessor]

0z NAM has much more of a trough in the 250mb flow over the U.S swooping down then it did during the 18z run.

[southerngale]

This was posted in the Discussion thread. A great explanation of some of the models and the setup.

New video from Levi. A must watch. He explains how much uncertainty there is here. He definitely is not taking South Florida off the table. The UKMET ensembles he posted are really interesting. Seems most are into SE Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Aric Dunn]

0z NAM has much more of a trough in the 250mb flow over the U.S swooping down then it did during the 18z run.

yeah its odd. it also started with a much stronger ridge than the 18z.

[South Texas Storms]

Can somebody post the 12Z UKMET ensembles? Levi showed them and I was surprised how many were into SE Florida.

12Z UKMet Ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/Rrakajc.png

One into Vermillion Bay, and quite a few into the panhandle.

UKMET Ensembles were horrible with Barry. Most were pointed at TX for several runs and we know how that turned out.

[HurricaneEnzo]

No one is out of the woods yet. They don't call it the 'windshield wiper' effect for nothing. If the next few model runs keep it OTS they might be onto something but we have to wait and see.

Please stay vigilant if you are in a potential impact area!

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[DESTRUCTION5]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1167616577887490048

[NDG]

Levi Cowan's video on the main tropicaltidbits.com website is ABSOLUTE required viewing for anyone following this storm. It's a mix of hard science and common sense.

Very good video indeed.

[Bocadude85]

0z NAM stalls Dorian on the Palm Beach/Martin County coast and the eyewall is just pounding the costal areas

[TheProfessor]

0z NAM have a very short wsw movement before turning wnw at hour 60. I have to imagine that the much deeper 250mb trough is keeping the 250mb high in the Gulf at bay, allowing the storm to move more northward.

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM barely moving Dorian west over Jupiter/ West Palm Beach:

[HurricaneFrances04]

0z NAM stalls Dorian on the Palm Beach/Martin County coast and the eyewall is just pounding the costal areas

Yeah, that's a decent NW shift from the past few runs which had it meandering in the Bahamas. Although, now it may be meandering just off the Florida coast.

[beachman80]

Two reasons to keep an eye on the models tonight...the UKMET ensembles and the 18z Euro which stalled out the storm completely in GB.

[ronjon]

Subtle shifts in the atmosphere can cause a track to swing 50 miles one way or the other. Looking at the peninsula and the way its shaped and the angle of approach we just don't have the tools or the science to narrow it down 4-5 days away. Levi Cowan has an excellent video on the factors influencing steering and how subtle changes resulted in models clustering on the west coast yesterday but resulted more east coast from today's model runs.

[gatorcane]

How 00Z NAM ends. Has Dorian creeping due west: