ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Ok what did i miss lol..

Is there a circulation?

Could someone pull up the obs to see if there are any westerlies?

[melhow]

Will be interesting if recon finds a Cat 5 later today barring conventional methods estimates don't meet that (purpose of other basins) . The visible images are stunning but scary seeing the landmasses.

https://i.imgur.com/2AG9ioI.gif

Thank you for sharing this animation, it truly puts it into scale. Can someone who knows more than me please point out the John Hope cirrus cloud effect/forecast mentioned previously in other posts? I'm just curious what that looks like for this storm.

[TorSkk]

VDM suggests Dorian may have become a Category 5.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 13:49Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 23
Observation Number: 11

A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 13:27:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.88N 73.17W
B. Center Fix Location: 268 statute miles (431 km) to the ENE (78°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,622m (8,602ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 945mb (27.91 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 8kts (From the E at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 141kts (162.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix at 13:24:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 131kts (From the SE at 150.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix at 13:24:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 117kts (134.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SW (227°) of center fix at 13:29:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 312° at 108kts (From the NW at 124.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SW (227°) of center fix at 13:29:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,086m (10,125ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 131kts (~ 150.8mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (42°) from the flight level center at 13:24:00Z

What was the highest pressure in a C5 storm?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Usually the NHC will wait for more data than 1-2 SFMR readings to upgrade to Category 5 (see Michael post-season); this'll either come in the form of more recon passes or corroborating data from another HH. The other plane in Michael only found 120 knots. Dropsonde was also lower. Good evidence to suggest 130-135 knots though at 11am by blending the two.

[Portaransas]

NHC now gives the low pressure area off of Cuba a slight chance of development... So assuming it gets at least marginally stronger, what effect does this low have on Dorian if any?

[Aric Dunn]

The eye is beginning to football.. around.. wonder if an ERC is starting.

i dont see a secondary wind max in the recon data.. so who knows

[NDG]

A 12 hr average heading that I just calculated between the latest AF recon coc fix at 9:27 AM and a recon fix made last night at 9:06 PM gives me an average heading of 285 degrees, not 290 degrees like the NHC said at its 5 AM advisory. If Dorian keeps this heading it will be tracking south of Grand Bahama Island and not north like most of the models show this morning.

[Cee235]

Sitting in Melbourne FL anxiously waiting to see what the track holds, if anything, for us

[La Sirena]

Ok what did i miss lol..

At least 5 more people gave the all clear for Florida, some mused that Dorian will be a Cat 5 by 11 am today, surface winds reported to be around 135 kts, the interesting little westerly track it’s taking, and the fact that the NHC moved the track right....I think that covers it

john morales on nbc miami sure is optimistic this morning

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/sta ... 0252784640

If the current NHC forecast track for Dorian were to be 100% accurate, the Keys, Miami-Dade *and* Broward counties would be left *out* of the tropical storm force wind field! Optimism grows, and this morning's models allow for my confidence level to grow too!

I respect John and the NHC but I’m not entirely convinced to put all my eggs in that far right track basket. There’s way too many moving parts with this storm. I’ll be over here continuing to watch

[Aric Dunn]

NHC now gives the low pressure area off of Cuba a slight chance of development... So assuming it gets at least marginally stronger, what effect does this low have on Dorian if any?

tough call.. but I can tell you that the models that showed more west into the gulf yesterday and day before had this gulf system the strongest..

[AutoPenalti]

I took a 2 hour nap after I woke up from my initial bedtime. What happened all of the sudden?

[Jr0d]

Ok what did i miss lol..

I'm sure you missed some sleep. I got maybe 3 hours.

Going to be an interesting 5pm advisory if the west motion continues and the models shift left again.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Breathing easier today in Land O Lakes

[GCANE]

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the locations of the past several VDM locations. Dorian still appears to be on forecast track but is still below 26N, barely.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The wobbles we're seeing is the eye gyrating around, usually a prelude to an EWRC.

[jlauderdal]

At least 5 more people gave the all clear for Florida, some mused that Dorian will be a Cat 5 by 11 am today, surface winds reported to be around 135 kts, the interesting little westerly track it’s taking, and the fact that the NHC moved the track right....I think that covers it

john morales on nbc miami sure is optimistic this morning

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/sta ... 0252784640

If the current NHC forecast track for Dorian were to be 100% accurate, the Keys, Miami-Dade *and* Broward counties would be left *out* of the tropical storm force wind field! Optimism grows, and this morning's models allow for my confidence level to grow too!

I respect John and the NHC but I’m not entirely convinced to put all my eggs in that far right track basket. There’s way too many moving parts with this storm. I’ll be over here continuing to watch

People on twitter did reply and ask him about the euro, he didnt respond..craig setzer cbs miami is telling people to pause preps which seems reasonable...morales seems a little to confident considering the situationwith the modeling and the history of models having toruble with ridges, a week ago he was very confident of no florida threat, he wasnt the only one but he was really confident

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019083112, 03, OFCL, 3, 260N, 734W, 130, 945, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 100, 60, 100, 0, 0, 0, 160, 15, , 0, LAA, 280, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 150, 120, 120, 150,

130kts

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the locations of the past several VDM locations. Dorian still appears to be on forecast track but is still below 26N, barely.

the updated forecast track.. not yesterdays.. meaning it has been south and left of the models

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the locations of the past several VDM locations. Dorian still appears to be on forecast track but is still below 26N, barely.

the updated forecast track.. not yesterdays.. meaning it has been south and left of the models

Yes todays forecast track