ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Bocadude85]

0z NAM stalls Dorian on the Palm Beach/Martin County coast and the eyewall is just pounding the costal areas

Yeah, that's a decent NW shift from the past few runs which had it meandering in the Bahamas. Although, now it may be meandering just off the Florida coast.

NAM finally pushes inland around the PalmBeach/Martin line

[AdamFirst]

Excruciating slow crawl as the NAM pushes inland. Probably picking up on the weakness and turn, just at the wrong time

[TheProfessor]

The 0z NAM actually develops a 250mb high to it's east and that is likely enough to prevent a sharp southerly motion. That little high has been showing up on the GFS so it could be a legit feature.

[Ubuntwo]

NAM stalls right on the Palm Beach coast. Catastrophic scenario.

[viberama]

The 0z NAM actually develops a 250mb high to it's east and that is likely enough to prevent a sharp southerly motion. That little high has been showing up on the GFS so it could be a legit feature.

Isn't the NAM one of the more reliable models when it comes to forecasting trough's/ridges/lows/highs?

[TheProfessor]

The 0z NAM makes a lot of sense with it's very slow crawl. There's a lot of conflicting steering currents that were introduced into this run, the upper level trough is swooping down so it may have picked Dorian up in future hours, but there's also a decent influence from the Gulf 250mb HP. The key things to watch will be how much Dorian is influenced by the 250mb flow, is there an upper level HP to the east of Dorian that competes against the Gulf HP causing Dorian to slow, and exactly where will Dorian be when there's a door to the north.

[HurricaneEnzo]

NAM is terrible for tropical tracking purposes

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[ronjon]

00z NAM rebuilds midlevel ridging over the SE just as the storm approaches the coast off WPB. This provides enough block to keep it drifting west just inland at 84 hrs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019083100&fh=84

[TheProfessor]

The 0z NAM actually develops a 250mb high to it's east and that is likely enough to prevent a sharp southerly motion. That little high has been showing up on the GFS so it could be a legit feature.

Isn't the NAM one of the more reliable models when it comes to forecasting trough's/ridges/lows/highs?

I don't know the exact stats for the NAM when it comes to synoptic forecasting, but it is a mesoscale model and I personally love using it for these mesoscale features. However, you have to think of the NAM like any other model. Hour 84 is in the NAM long range so it's not going to be incredibly accurate. Hour 36 is where the NAM really starts making its money.

[SunnyThoughts]

While we are waiting for 00z gfs...the 00z ICON is rolling

[TheProfessor]

NAM is terrible for tropical tracking purposes

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In general yes, but when a storm can be heavily influenced by smaller mesoscale features that are relatively close to the conus the NAM is not a horrible model to turn to, especially when the potential wsw turn starts getting within 36 hours.

[wxmann_91]

The 0z NAM actually develops a 250mb high to it's east and that is likely enough to prevent a sharp southerly motion. That little high has been showing up on the GFS so it could be a legit feature.

Isn't the NAM one of the more reliable models when it comes to forecasting trough's/ridges/lows/highs?

No. It's actually one of the least reliable ones (from this time range).

[Ian2401]

ICON south and faster this run so far

[Bocadude85]

0z ICON coming in faster and southwest of the 18z through 30 hours

[Ian2401]

quick question...how accurate is the ICON in general. i know its a newer model, but how good is it in terms of tropical meteorology

[Hammy]

quick question...how accurate is the ICON in general. i know its a newer model, but how good is it in terms of tropical meteorology

It does not seem like it's been performing well with Dorian, it's been well to the south of the other models, at one point going straight west towards Cuba.

[Hurricaneman]

ICON is faster this run

[Powellrm]

Let’s steer away from NAM and ICON and back towards more helpful tools. Not that they aren’t worth discussion.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Let’s steer away from NAM and ICON and back towards more helpful tools. Not that they aren’t worth discussion.

All models are "useful tools." Plus, people are going to talk about the models that are running in the models thread.

[jlauderdal]

Let’s steer away from NAM and ICON and back towards more helpful tools. Not that they aren’t worth discussion.

Its a discussion board, can we discuss models in this thread?