ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[alienstorm]

Moving along at 26N

[wjs3]

john morales on nbc miami sure is optimistic this morning

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/sta ... 0252784640

If the current NHC forecast track for Dorian were to be 100% accurate, the Keys, Miami-Dade *and* Broward counties would be left *out* of the tropical storm force wind field! Optimism grows, and this morning's models allow for my confidence level to grow too!

I respect John and the NHC but I’m not entirely convinced to put all my eggs in that far right track basket. There’s way too many moving parts with this storm. I’ll be over here continuing to watch

People on twitter did reply and ask him about the euro, he didnt respond..craig setzer cbs miami is telling people to pause preps which seems reasonable...morales seems a little to confident considering the situationwith the modeling and the history of models having toruble with ridges, a week ago he was very confident of no florida threat, he wasnt the only one but he was really confident

One of the NHC Facebook Lives yesterday made a cool point. Lixion Avila made a point about them not wanting people to get "fatigued" with the storm. Prepare, be prepared, but don't wear yourself out/oversaturate yourself now, before potential watches are out. It was a cool point in an interesting area of meteorology--the psychology of forecasting--how you get people to act in a way that protects life and limb. Sure, it's science, but it's also human behavior. Very interesting to watch the best in the world at the NHC play that out.

[Jr0d]

Thank you for sharing this animation, it truly puts it into scale. Can someone who knows more than me please point out the John Hope cirrus cloud effect/forecast mentioned previously in other posts? I'm just curious what that looks like for this storm.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 00x540.gif

It's not supposed to stall then turn north for another 48 hours or so. So far no cirrus clouds going nort(or northwest), they are shooting west.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a ERC has started.. last two recon passes below. Explains the wobbling eye all over the place.

the pass on the right has not sign of a secondary wind max.. but the most recent pass does have two small peaks.. those should continue to grow.

[La Sirena]

john morales on nbc miami sure is optimistic this morning

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/sta ... 0252784640

If the current NHC forecast track for Dorian were to be 100% accurate, the Keys, Miami-Dade *and* Broward counties would be left *out* of the tropical storm force wind field! Optimism grows, and this morning's models allow for my confidence level to grow too!

I respect John and the NHC but I’m not entirely convinced to put all my eggs in that far right track basket. There’s way too many moving parts with this storm. I’ll be over here continuing to watch

People on twitter did reply and ask him about the euro, he didnt respond..craig setzer cbs miami is telling people to pause preps which seems reasonable...morales seems a little to confident considering the situationwith the modeling and the history of models having toruble with ridges, a week ago he was very confident of no florida threat, he wasnt the only one but he was really confident

I guess that’s why John gets paid the big bucks yet I’m still over here feeling less confident

It’s just curious to me how they are looking to be the big dog who called it a week ago and gain viewer confidence....but the governor is still out there doing the hurricane prep tour.

[KWT]

Stair stepping towards 26N now, but broadly still on a 275-280 motion. These wobbles are going to become increasingly important for the Bahamas over the next 24hrs.

[OuterBanker]

Looking at the locations of the past several VDM locations. Dorian still appears to be on forecast track but is still below 26N, barely.

the updated forecast track.. not yesterdays.. meaning it has been south and left of the models

Dorian has just passed 26N. With any luck it will pass to the north of all the Bahamas.

Btw Aric I think Tx is pretty much out of it now.

[Sailingtime]

Will be interesting if recon finds a Cat 5 later today barring conventional methods estimates don't meet that (purpose of other basins) . The visible images are stunning but scary seeing the landmasses.

https://i.imgur.com/2AG9ioI.gif

Thank you for sharing this animation, it truly puts it into scale. Can someone who knows more than me please point out the John Hope cirrus cloud effect/forecast mentioned previously in other posts? I'm just curious what that looks like for this storm.

I can't quote John Hope exactly but as memory serves his theory was that if you look at the low level clouds out well ahead of the hurricane and see which way they are moving/trending - bulging out so to speak, it's a good indication of the way the hurricane will move in general. Pretty basic but in a lot of cases it seems to work.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the locations of the past several VDM locations. Dorian still appears to be on forecast track but is still below 26N, barely.

the updated forecast track.. not yesterdays.. meaning it has been south and left of the models

Dorian has just passed 26N. With any luck it will pass to the north of all the Bahamas.

Btw Aric I think Tx is pretty much out of it now.

its actually riding 26n.. and still south of all yesterdays models and guidance..

hey and there is still one UKMET member into texas.. lol

[pcolaman]

the updated forecast track.. not yesterdays.. meaning it has been south and left of the models

Dorian has just passed 26N. With any luck it will pass to the north of all the Bahamas.

Btw Aric I think Tx is pretty much out of it now.

its actually riding 26n.. and still south of all yesterdays models and guidance..

hey and there is still one UKMET member into texas.. lol

Been riding 26 n for about 3 hours now .

[b0tzy29]

Looks like a nudge north

[KWT]

the updated forecast track.. not yesterdays.. meaning it has been south and left of the models

Dorian has just passed 26N. With any luck it will pass to the north of all the Bahamas.

Btw Aric I think Tx is pretty much out of it now.

its actually riding 26n.. and still south of all yesterdays models and guidance..

hey and there is still one UKMET member into texas.. lol

Yep, though its still stair stepping a rough 275-280 motion overall. Won't be enough for the Bahamas though unless there is a rather more sizeable wobble to the north in the next 12hrs.

[northjaxpro]

Moving along at 26N
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2297/1seXnq.gif

Textbook looking storm. What a beautiful satellite image!! tt NEVER, EVER ceases to amaze me these cyclones. BEAUTIFUL but DEADLY.

The Medussas of Earth is what I personally call them. I just wanted to .try to add a.liitle light hearted humor to help take the tenseness and edge off this morning....

We don't turn.into stone observing their images but.I personally get locked and frozen in moments of awestruck when they get this powerful..

[Airboy]

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 131 kts (150.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 138 kts (158.8 mph)

[Evil Jeremy]

I wake up and find a huge shift east in the track despite the storm moving well left of yesterday’s track.

I must say, extremely rash and irresponsible move by the NHC. This will basically put most people on the east coast of FL into complacency.

Forecast accuracy matters. So does not making people feel safe when your own track from yesterday busted severely.

What would you rather the NHC have done instead? Not provide the most accurate interpretation of the data they are given at any moment?

[Michele B]

Not to discount the model shift.

As someone post before, John Hope would say follow the cirrus clouds because the storm will follow. Those cirrus clouds are going to S\CFL.

I do miss John Hope.

They did a "flashback" thing in twc with some past storm, and John Hope forecasting it on camera. It brought back good memories. He was one smart dude!

I don't see any like him now. They are (mostly) all content to just read what they are told to read instead of doing the research for themselves. I wonder if it has something to do with how much "air time" they are given? Or their level of training? Or their willingness to learn more?

IDK

[AdamFirst]

I don't expect a large shift away from the coast in the 11 AM advisory just yet. Perhaps after the 12z guidance if that trend continues. Dont want to lull people off preparations

[KWT]

I don't expect a large shift away from the coast in the 11 AM advisory just yet. Perhaps after the 12z guidance if that trend continues. Dont want to lull people off preparations

I think the key message needs to be that Florida's east coast is still very much in the cone and so people still need to keep a very close eye on it. Need to be cautious, especially given the models have a history of recurving storms too rapidly in the past.

[AutoPenalti]

I remember watching a YouTube video of John Hope when he was tracking Andrew in 92. I was born in 99 but by golly what a man he was for that time. He was legendary for the weather channel.

[Sanibel]

The town government gave the all clear for our side over here on the west coast...

This one had me worried but the High Pressure didn't have it...