Well these runs will all be out the door if Dorian continues this west motion.. its very apparent the last hour or so it has begun accelerating west.. paralleling south of the 26N line.
will it continue ?
ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
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catskillfire51
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
The timing of that low has to be outstanding though, Dorian moves faster, that trough moves slower. Until sunday everyone will be glued.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I'm personally not buying the latest GFS, it tends to shift too quickly and underplay the ridge. Plus it's already moving further west and south of where it should be on that run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It's strange that the models haven't picked up on the W motion that has been going for hours. They're missing something.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.08.2019
HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 71.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.9N 73.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.4N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.5N 77.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.6N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.7N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 27.0N 78.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.3N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.7N 80.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 31.3N 79.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 33.1N 78.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 34.7N 75.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 71.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.9N 73.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.4N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.5N 77.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.6N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.7N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 27.0N 78.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.3N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.7N 80.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 31.3N 79.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 33.1N 78.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 34.7N 75.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.08.2019
HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 71.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.9N 73.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.4N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.5N 77.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.6N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.7N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 27.0N 78.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.3N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.7N 80.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 31.3N 79.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 33.1N 78.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 34.7N 75.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
Can anyone plot this?
UKMET shifts east.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
SouthDadeFish wrote:The trough over the eastern US has gotten deeper at the 2-day period over the last few GFS runs. This allows the weakness for Dorian to gain latitude.
Has it in reality or in modeling?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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viberama
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Hammy wrote:I'm personally not buying the latest GFS, it tends to shift too quickly and underplay the ridge. Plus it's already moving further west and south of where it should be on that run.
I agree and watching Levi's video blog on tidbits regarding the modeling this evening makes me not believe this GFS run either. Too many other variables still in play.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Ubuntwo wrote:It's strange that the models haven't picked up on the W motion that has been going for hours. They're missing something.
This run seems to have a lower forward speed? The stall is further from the coast.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Indeed, stays well offshore Florida, gets maybe a little closer to North Florida/Georgia but still far out, recurves.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Both GFS models hit the Carolinas. Smh, we do not need that. Let the out to sea stuff pan out please. 
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JtSmarts
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
GFS at 120 very close to Charleston, then skirts right along the SC coast at 126.
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Meteorcane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
birddogsc wrote:Where did that huge L over the upper midwest come from at 78 hrs on the GFS?
Looks like cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies just downstream of the encroaching shortwave (that ultimately will tug Dorian N/NE later in its life-cycle).
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Wow! This is looking better every hour!! Question is, how far will the east trend go? At this point, I see zero evidence that the trend is going to go back west...You can really see the weakness in the maps on the model runs. And in my opinion, I don't think the high is just going to magically fill back in...I think they will shift the cone even further right by morning......
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
00z GFS reminds me a lot of Hurricane Hugo in terms of impacts. Shifting around like crazy.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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beachman80
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Ubuntwo wrote:It's strange that the models haven't picked up on the W motion that has been going for hours. They're missing something.
It's not moving due west. It's still got a small northern component to it. All the models have shown this.
I think the GFS is just reacting to what everyone is seeing. It's not a bad run. It's just following the trend.
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