ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

What are the chances of Miami to Homestead getting any tropical storm winds?

Fairly low at this point. Dorian is a quite small hurricane that should pass a good distance to your northeast.

[NDG]

The last frame had a wobble south. If not for that, he'd be solidly north of 26N. Still a ways to go until 74W.

Remember that satellite pictures have an angle to it, so the eye is actually a little further south, the last fix by the NOAA recon 40 minutes ago still had it just below the 26th latitude.

[CronkPSU]

What are the chances of Miami to Homestead getting any tropical storm winds?

very well still could, depends on EWRC and how big the storm gets

[Michele B]

NOAA plan found 158mph too.

May actually be a Cat 5.

Just as someone predicted in here this a.m.

Seriously though, it’s not surprising. Dorian is quite a storm.

So for future reference, maybe we should remember this:

If a storm can FIGHT OFF all the negative elements that Dorian did and survive (and remember Andrew), then once it finds its "Sea Legs," it will be a formidable sight.

[alienstorm]

Here is an interesting snippet from Mark Suddath:

one thing to note about the very obvious changes in the model guidance overnight:

While it is seemingly good news to see a shift away from Florida and a possible window of opportunity for Dorian to miss making landfall anywhere along the southeast US coast, I would like to point out that from what I am reading the additional upper air samples from the NOAA high altitude yet were not in the overnight runs of the models.

Apparently, they are having trouble with the plane itself and were not able to fly this morning either.

If I understand things correctly, the 12Z models yesterday had the data but not last night - and last night was when the east shift really took root.

The reason the high-altitude data is important is because weather balloons are launched from the land based weather service offices and not from out over the ocean for obvious reasons.

The high altitude jet drops instruments around the environment of the hurricane to sample the atmosphere where there is normally no data. This has not happened in 24 hours I believe.

[HurricaneFrances04]

What are the chances of Miami to Homestead getting any tropical storm winds?

As of the 11 am advisory:

Miami 41%
Homestead 33%

Less than 50/50 odds, but still some chance.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1455.shtml?

[jlauderdal]

Some of the local stations here in South Florida are sounding the all clear saying we can breathe a sigh of relief..too soon

John morales is one of them..hope he is right, he already busted big time once on this storm

[Michele B]

NHC goes with 130 knots (probably based off dropsonde data).

11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Slowed down (was 12 mph at 8). May be getting ready to make a turn.

[MGC]

11am forecast track is good news for Florida. Lets hope the hurricane passes off shore. Northern Bahamas still under the gun though. I'm thinking the hurricane will pass just north of the Bahamas sparing the islands the brunt of Dorian.....MGC

[La Sirena]

NOAA plan found 158mph too.

May actually be a Cat 5.

Just as someone predicted in here this a.m.

Seriously though, it’s not surprising. Dorian is quite a storm.

So for future reference, maybe we should remember this:

If a storm can FIGHT OFF all the negative elements that Dorian did and survive (and remember Andrew), then once it finds its "Sea Legs," it will be a formidable sight.

Like The Little Storm That Could But, he was certainly discounted very early on. And he just keeps surprising us.

[jlauderdal]

All of south Florida out of the cone as of 11

Yep. And another east shift like that in next advisory will have all of Florida out of the cone. Could be Very good news. I know, I know don’t let your guard down but this is definitely a solid trend right now.

The cone should be completely ignored. It means nothing as far as potential impacts or the CURRENT level of forecast uncertainty.

Well said, the tv mets in miami follow it to the last inch on the edges..wsvn fox miami repeatedly shows the spaghetti plot with almost no explantion

[Kat5]

NHC goes with 130 knots (probably based off dropsonde data).

11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Not with that decent ridge to the north.


Slowed down (was 12 mph at 8). May be getting ready to make a turn.

[KWT]

NHC goes with 130 knots (probably based off dropsonde data).

11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Slowed down (was 12 mph at 8). May be getting ready to make a turn.

Its at least a sign that the steering currents are starting to weaken a little now, but its barely gaining latitude yet which probably means Abaco is going to get a full square hit from this unless there is a pretty rapid change up.

[Ritzcraker]

Here is an interesting snippet from Mark Suddath:

one thing to note about the very obvious changes in the model guidance overnight:

While it is seemingly good news to see a shift away from Florida and a possible window of opportunity for Dorian to miss making landfall anywhere along the southeast US coast, I would like to point out that from what I am reading the additional upper air samples from the NOAA high altitude yet were not in the overnight runs of the models.

Apparently, they are having trouble with the plane itself and were not able to fly this morning either.

If I understand things correctly, the 12Z models yesterday had the data but not last night - and last night was when the east shift really took root.

The reason the high-altitude data is important is because weather balloons are launched from the land based weather service offices and not from out over the ocean for obvious reasons.

The high altitude jet drops instruments around the environment of the hurricane to sample the atmosphere where there is normally no data. This has not happened in 24 hours I believe.

A dicey forecasting situation nonetheless...

[sponger]

People on twitter did reply and ask him about the euro, he didnt respond..craig setzer cbs miami is telling people to pause preps which seems reasonable...morales seems a little to confident considering the situationwith the modeling and the history of models having toruble with ridges, a week ago he was very confident of no florida threat, he wasnt the only one but he was really confident

One of the NHC Facebook Lives yesterday made a cool point. Lixion Avila made a point about them not wanting people to get "fatigued" with the storm. Prepare, be prepared, but don't wear yourself out/oversaturate yourself now, before potential watches are out. It was a cool point in an interesting area of meteorology--the psychology of forecasting--how you get people to act in a way that protects life and limb. Sure, it's science, but it's also human behavior. Very interesting to watch the best in the world at the NHC play that out.

That's a great post and reflects a really well learned perspective by Lixion who I used to enjoy chatting with years ago. Bottom line is when you've watched, tracked and forecasted these storms long enough, you come to the realization that many factors evolve and change 3, 4, and 5 days out. Like watching a boxing match and seeing how each boxer is "up", then fading, then "down", then "back up" again LOL, the result is an ongoing rise and fall of emotion, anxiety and anticipation. That is why there's different levels of preparation for a hurricane and why there's a time for buying supplies, a time for planning boarding up and cleaning the yard of loose items, and a time for logistics of decision and actions that relate to work, children, school/day care, and "bugging out"/evacuation. By and large, a lot of what people need to do is have an overall plan and then to simply WAIT AND WATCH.

On a related note, I'm here in Central Florida and couldn't help from laughing while watching the MANY home-owners having their lawns mowed "in preparation for the storm". I''m not making this up because I asked a couple neighbors as well as my own lawn maintenance guy For the life of me, I can't see the benefit of having a groomed lawn in the event that trees, my neighbors debris, and roofing material end up littered all over it following a hurricane impact. Just seems like some way of coping with nervous energy I guess LOL.

I always do it just because I know that it will be awhile before I can mow it, due to all the rain. If you miss your opportunity, it is a foot high by the time you can mow without sinking into it. Also a great stress reliever like any exercise.

[AutoPenalti]

NHC goes with 130 knots (probably based off dropsonde data).

11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Slowed down (was 12 mph at 8). May be getting ready to make a turn.

Still has 48hrs left.

[tropicwatch]

Is Dorian Slowing down a little sooner than expected? Could this let Dorian avoid the next front keeping it from making the northward turn?

[CronkPSU]

NHC goes with 130 knots (probably based off dropsonde data).

11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Slowed down (was 12 mph at 8). May be getting ready to make a turn.

not supposed to make a turn until Monday/Tuesday

[wjs3]

Here is an interesting snippet from Mark Suddath:

one thing to note about the very obvious changes in the model guidance overnight:

While it is seemingly good news to see a shift away from Florida and a possible window of opportunity for Dorian to miss making landfall anywhere along the southeast US coast, I would like to point out that from what I am reading the additional upper air samples from the NOAA high altitude yet were not in the overnight runs of the models.

Apparently, they are having trouble with the plane itself and were not able to fly this morning either.

If I understand things correctly, the 12Z models yesterday had the data but not last night - and last night was when the east shift really took root.

The reason the high-altitude data is important is because weather balloons are launched from the land based weather service offices and not from out over the ocean for obvious reasons.

The high altitude jet drops instruments around the environment of the hurricane to sample the atmosphere where there is normally no data. This has not happened in 24 hours I believe.

...That said the thing that made the track move was the trof in the central US eroding the ridge. That continental environment is quite well-measured, withe extra soundings.

[KWT]

11am forecast track is good news for Florida. Lets hope the hurricane passes off shore. Northern Bahamas still under the gun though. I'm thinking the hurricane will pass just north of the Bahamas sparing the islands the brunt of Dorian.....MGC

Better get a move on with that WNW motion, because at the motion its still near due west. Hopefully the turn happens sooner than expected, but most of the models that spared the Bahamas a direct landfall were already decently north of its current location at this point (and even those still gave hurricane winds to Abaco).

Can't see a miss at this point personally.