ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

All of south Florida out of the cone as of 11

Yep. And another east shift like that in next advisory will have all of Florida out of the cone. Could be Very good news. I know, I know don’t let your guard down but this is definitely a solid trend right now.

The cone should be completely ignored. It means nothing as far as potential impacts or the CURRENT level of forecast uncertainty.

Completely agree yet the local news stations and Mets are saying we can breathe a sigh of relief here and people will take that as gospel..it can easily shift back west..no one knows yet

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's interesting that they say Dorian could still strengthen further.

Dorian's satellite presentation is outstanding with a distinct eye
of about 15 n mi in diameter. Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter planes have been penetrating the eye this morning and based
on a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity
has been adjusted upward to 130 kt in this advisory. Dorian is
forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm waters, which is
like high octane-fuel for hurricanes. The combination of the warm
ocean and the prevailing low shear along Dorian's path should favor
some additional strengthening, but most likely the hurricane will
experience some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement
cycles that are difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the
hurricane begins to gain in latitude a gradual weakening is
anticipated.

[sponger]

So will the afternoon Euro have the pressure soundings from NOAA fed into it? Really looking forward to the next run.

[jhpigott]

All of south Florida out of the cone as of 11

Yep. And another east shift like that in next advisory will have all of Florida out of the cone. Could be Very good news. I know, I know don’t let your guard down but this is definitely a solid trend right now.

The cone should be completely ignored. It means nothing as far as potential impacts or the CURRENT level of forecast uncertainty.

What's your confidence in the current forecasts? Curious what your thinking is to possible impacts to SEUS coastline

[Michele B]

Here is an interesting snippet from Mark Suddath:

one thing to note about the very obvious changes in the model guidance overnight:

While it is seemingly good news to see a shift away from Florida and a possible window of opportunity for Dorian to miss making landfall anywhere along the southeast US coast, I would like to point out that from what I am reading the additional upper air samples from the NOAA high altitude yet were not in the overnight runs of the models.

Apparently, they are having trouble with the plane itself and were not able to fly this morning either.

If I understand things correctly, the 12Z models yesterday had the data but not last night - and last night was when the east shift really took root.

The reason the high-altitude data is important is because weather balloons are launched from the land based weather service offices and not from out over the ocean for obvious reasons.

The high altitude jet drops instruments around the environment of the hurricane to sample the atmosphere where there is normally no data. This has not happened in 24 hours I believe.

I remember where the plane turned back last night or something.

Knowing data that SHOULD have come from that plane did not get processed into the latest models does not give me confidence in this latest cone. I THOUGHT they shifted it too far east too soon.

[chaser1]

I wonder why a strong Dorian (which would be influenced more my 300MB steering) wouldn’t get pushed more west into South or Central Florida with that ULL over Cuba forcing it west?

I know there are other steering levels in play here but you wonder if that ULL may have more influence than models think right now?

https://i.postimg.cc/kXQ7pYZy/goes16-wv-mid-watl-201908311235.jpg

I was thinking about this today, too.

Do the "steering currents" which influence a storm have something to do with how strong it is, in relation to the HEIGHT of the storm clouds?

IOW, if a very strong storm - like dorien now - has very high tops, then wouldn't the steering currents in much higher atmosphere have more influence than, say, a weaker storm whose cloud tops don't go above - maybe 25k ft?

Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about, but I am assuming that a stronger storm continues to build UPWARD as well as outward, and I wonder if that factor plays into the movement based on "jet stream" verus surface hi/low, etc.

Your thoughts have good merit and the storm itself can/does play a role with regard to how it's future motion may be affected. Deeper core hurricanes will have upper level influences play some role in their current/future motion as compared to much weaker and more shallow tropical cyclones. Likewise, small hurricanes are more apt to make small scale squarely turns and course adjustments mush like a pebble within a strong stream of water might. Meanwhile, very large hurricanes lend to much smoother tracks and in cases can actually influence upper level and steering influences immediately around them. I think it is this reason that some models (and still a few model ensemble members) were depicting Dorian making a short term southwest jog just east of Florida as a result of short term influence that a building ridge just north of Dorian and the small cut off low in the Florida Straits might cause (prior to a sudden turn toward the north or northwest). Large hurricanes are less apt to feel the effects of smaller short term influencing factors and often "push", weaken, or absorb smaller scale features.

[NDG]

All of south Florida out of the cone as of 11

Yep. And another east shift like that in next advisory will have all of Florida out of the cone. Could be Very good news. I know, I know don’t let your guard down but this is definitely a solid trend right now.

The cone should be completely ignored. It means nothing as far as potential impacts or the CURRENT level of forecast uncertainty.

Yep, good example is the latest 06z Euro which shows some of the outer squalls to reach SE FL with the potential of TS force wind gusts with them and very rough waters by the beach.

[Bluehawk]

People on twitter did reply and ask him about the euro, he didnt respond..craig setzer cbs miami is telling people to pause preps which seems reasonable...morales seems a little to confident considering the situationwith the modeling and the history of models having toruble with ridges, a week ago he was very confident of no florida threat, he wasnt the only one but he was really confident

One of the NHC Facebook Lives yesterday made a cool point. Lixion Avila made a point about them not wanting people to get "fatigued" with the storm. Prepare, be prepared, but don't wear yourself out/oversaturate yourself now, before potential watches are out. It was a cool point in an interesting area of meteorology--the psychology of forecasting--how you get people to act in a way that protects life and limb. Sure, it's science, but it's also human behavior. Very interesting to watch the best in the world at the NHC play that out.

That's a great post and reflects a really well learned perspective by Lixion who I used to enjoy chatting with years ago. Bottom line is when you've watched, tracked and forecasted these storms long enough, you come to the realization that many factors evolve and change 3, 4, and 5 days out. Like watching a boxing match and seeing how each boxer is "up", then fading, then "down", then "back up" again LOL, the result is an ongoing rise and fall of emotion, anxiety and anticipation. That is why there's different levels of preparation for a hurricane and why there's a time for buying supplies, a time for planning boarding up and cleaning the yard of loose items, and a time for logistics of decision and actions that relate to work, children, school/day care, and "bugging out"/evacuation. By and large, a lot of what people need to do is have an overall plan and then to simply WAIT AND WATCH.

On a related note, I'm here in Central Florida and couldn't help from laughing while watching the MANY home-owners having their lawns mowed "in preparation for the storm". I''m not making this up because I asked a couple neighbors as well as my own lawn maintenance guy For the life of me, I can't see the benefit of having a groomed lawn in the event that trees, my neighbors debris, and roofing material end up littered all over it following a hurricane impact. Just seems like some way of coping with nervous energy I guess LOL.

West Boca Raton resident here: We are instinctively learning this lesson today We do not watch any media regarding the hurricane. The NHC and this forum help us prepare well enough! That being said, after burning ourselves out yesterday afternoon preparing (read: cleaning it and playing tetris with all the stuff in there lol) the garage to take in the patio and yard furniture, tools, etc, this morning it was an amazing sense of relief to know we are able to "wait and see" without stress, instead of waking up very early to board up the gliding doors and bring the very heavy yard furniture in. We have everything ready, and the rest of the house is protected as we have impact windows, but we can take a little break, and are very grateful for it. I maintain faith this will stay OTS, but I am well aware serious players in the modelling world (all pun intended) of hurricane tracking are still saying "hold my beer".
Edited to add: one of my friends was mowing the lawn yesterday as well LOL. I think there's a little bit of sense in that - it may take weeks until we'd be able to do it again, should the worst come to happen, and, with much rain and humidity, it'd be very difficult to cut afterwards. But... what to do with the clippings?! There's no waste disposal until it were to strike - if it did.
And another funny prep I saw yesterday: one of my neighbors was thoroughly washing her car

[sponger]

ICON showing landfall Broward County.

[wjs3]

Yep. And another east shift like that in next advisory will have all of Florida out of the cone. Could be Very good news. I know, I know don’t let your guard down but this is definitely a solid trend right now.

The cone should be completely ignored. It means nothing as far as potential impacts or the CURRENT level of forecast uncertainty.

Well said, the tv mets in miami follow it to the last inch on the edges..wsvn fox miami repeatedly shows the spaghetti plot with almost no explanation

I emailed WPLG earlier this morning because they are saying things like "the NHC removed Broward county from the cone of concern" or, earlier today, were naming specific cities that were n and out of the cone.

(1) The NHC draws the forecast. The cone draws itself. The NHC does not include or remove an area from the cone. They don't seem to understand that because they keep saying it.
(2) Saying places are "in" or "out" ignores that the cone represents only some of the average error. And it's just too darn precise. What, someone in Lauderdale is "out" but Pompano is "in"??

[Yellow Evan]

There were 142 FL winds and 141 SFMR. 90% of 142 is 128. Not sure how a blend of that yields 130 knots.

[Blown Away]

Look at that sudden acceleration burst on latest loop... These storms are so unpredictably cool...

[Michele B]

ICON showing landfall Broward County.

Where did this model come from and how reliable has it been? I never heard of it until this year.

[chaser1]

One of the NHC Facebook Lives yesterday made a cool point. Lixion Avila made a point about them not wanting people to get "fatigued" with the storm. Prepare, be prepared, but don't wear yourself out/oversaturate yourself now, before potential watches are out. It was a cool point in an interesting area of meteorology--the psychology of forecasting--how you get people to act in a way that protects life and limb. Sure, it's science, but it's also human behavior. Very interesting to watch the best in the world at the NHC play that out.

That's a great post and reflects a really well learned perspective by Lixion who I used to enjoy chatting with years ago. Bottom line is when you've watched, tracked and forecasted these storms long enough, you come to the realization that many factors evolve and change 3, 4, and 5 days out. Like watching a boxing match and seeing how each boxer is "up", then fading, then "down", then "back up" again LOL, the result is an ongoing rise and fall of emotion, anxiety and anticipation. That is why there's different levels of preparation for a hurricane and why there's a time for buying supplies, a time for planning boarding up and cleaning the yard of loose items, and a time for logistics of decision and actions that relate to work, children, school/day care, and "bugging out"/evacuation. By and large, a lot of what people need to do is have an overall plan and then to simply WAIT AND WATCH.

On a related note, I'm here in Central Florida and couldn't help from laughing while watching the MANY home-owners having their lawns mowed "in preparation for the storm". I''m not making this up because I asked a couple neighbors as well as my own lawn maintenance guy For the life of me, I can't see the benefit of having a groomed lawn in the event that trees, my neighbors debris, and roofing material end up littered all over it following a hurricane impact. Just seems like some way of coping with nervous energy I guess LOL.

I always do it just because I know that it will be awhile before I can mow it, due to all the rain. If you miss your opportunity, it is a foot high by the time you can mow without sinking into it. Also a great stress reliever like any exercise.

Apparently so; well, at least one taking the effort to ease the anxiety of waiting and watching seems more productive then just watching and becoming more alarmed or anxious while sitting and staring at the satellite. I can see your point of having to mow a week higher/deeper lawn if it were that high a week or two from now. I guess I found it comical given the many other more relavent things I either had to do or help others with. Cutting the grass just wasn't in my "top 20" list.

[La Sirena]

ICON showing landfall Broward County.

Where did this model come from and how reliable has it been? I never heard of it until this year.

It is a fairly new German model.

[Blown Away]

ICON showing landfall Broward County.

Where did this model come from and how reliable has it been? I never heard of it until this year.

Looking at the current NHC cone, I'd say not much consideration...

[caneseddy]

Broward County mayor saying that while it appears at this moment it’s heading north, don’t let your guard down..brought up Irma how it was supposed to head up the east coast or up the spine and instead went west of us. Saying to still prepare because things can change

[AutoPenalti]

ICON showing landfall Broward County.

Where did this model come from and how reliable has it been? I never heard of it until this year.

Looking at the current NHC cone, I'd say not much consideration...

This run just came out...

[jlauderdal]

The cone should be completely ignored. It means nothing as far as potential impacts or the CURRENT level of forecast uncertainty.

Well said, the tv mets in miami follow it to the last inch on the edges..wsvn fox miami repeatedly shows the spaghetti plot with almost no explanation

I emailed WPLG earlier this morning because they are saying things like "the NHC removed Broward county from the cone of concern" or, earlier today, were naming specific cities that were n and out of the cone.

(1) The NHC draws the forecast. The cone draws itself. The NHC does not include or remove an area from the cone. They don't seem to understand that because they keep saying it.
(2) Saying places are "in" or "out" ignores that the cone represents only some of the average error. And it's just too darn precise. What, someone in Lauderdale is "out" but Pompano is "in"??

https://twitter.com/SheliNBC6/status/1167814125428387840

[GeneratorPower]

Broward County mayor saying that while it appears at this moment it’s heading north, don’t let your guard down..brought up Irma how it was supposed to head up the east coast or up the spine and instead went west of us. Saying to still prepare because things can change

The wisest course of action!