ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

Intense hurricanes do not move in a straight line; the exact center gyrates around. Focus instead on 2-4 hour trends in position.

which has been pretty much due W since around midnight

Due west is 270 degrees. It has not been that. At any time. It’s north of due west.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1167793399619117056

[GCANE]

PV Streamer has dissipated and ULL has moved SW.
Diabatic Ridge has also moved SW and weakened some.
Appears Dorian is getting more steering from the UL Ridge to the NW.

[CFLHurricane]

https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1167793399619117056

Probably not.

[hohnywx]

NHC Director was just interviewed by Dr. Greg Postal on TWC. Stated that they were using “protractors and compasses” to map out the wind field impacts on Florida. It is possible watches will be issued for the coast this afternoon.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/1167794141964775425

[Canelaw99]

PV Streamer has dissipated and ULL has moved SW.
Diabatic Ridge has also moved SW and weakened some.
Appears Dorian is getting more steering from the UL Ridge to the NW.

https://i.imgur.com/IBFcJjq.png

Would that make it track more w/sw ????

[NDG]

Hot off the press, Dorian has finally reached the 26th Latitude by the latest AF recon pass.

163230 2602N 07340W 6969 02657 9441 +161 +047 131007 012 041 002 00

Unflagged 134 & 140 knot surface winds.

163430 2607N 07337W 6963 02727 9520 +149 +057 112081 087 134 011 00
163500 2608N 07336W 6959 02769 9597 +113 +059 121100 112 140 025 00
163530 2609N 07335W 6968 02824 9689 +091 +059 126132 135 140 040 03

[gailwarning]

Edited to add: one of my friends was mowing the lawn yesterday as well LOL. I think there's a little bit of sense in that - it may take weeks until we'd be able to do it again, should the worst come to happen, and, with much rain and humidity, it'd be very difficult to cut afterwards. But... what to do with the clippings?! There's no waste disposal until it were to strike - if it did.
And another funny prep I saw yesterday: one of my neighbors was thoroughly washing her car

What bugs me is all the people who decide to trim their palms ahead of the storm--and then leave the debris curbside to be tossed around and to plug up storm drains. During Wilma, the water was rising in the street and I discovered that the storm drain next to my house was getting plugged up. I went out and dragged debris out of the drain. It worked.

[wx98]

This thing is dang close to Cat 5 based on that pass

[sponger]

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/1167794141964775425

When that collapses we will see the wind field expand.

[Jr0d]

NHC Director was just interviewed by Dr. Greg Postal on TWC. Stated that they were using “protractors and compasses” to map out the wind field impacts on Florida. It is possible watches will be issued for the coast this afternoon.

Got to love the old school methods sometimes. Even with how advanced our computers sometimes pen and paper with expert wisdom is the best solution. It is my preferred method of navigating offshore and has never failed. I can't tell you how many have gotten way off course with their GPS chart plotters.

[Blown Away]

Hot off the press, Dorian has finally reached the 26th Latitude by the latest AF recon pass.

163230 2602N 07340W 6969 02657 9441 +161 +047 131007 012 041 002 00

Unflagged 134 & 140 knot surface winds.

163430 2607N 07337W 6963 02727 9520 +149 +057 112081 087 134 011 00
163500 2608N 07336W 6959 02769 9597 +113 +059 121100 112 140 025 00
163530 2609N 07335W 6968 02824 9689 +091 +059 126132 135 140 040 03

Part of the eye still S of 26N...

[CFLHurricane]

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/1167794141964775425

Do we know the height of those cloud tops around the eye?

[NDG]

Hot off the press, Dorian has finally reached the 26th Latitude by the latest AF recon pass.

163230 2602N 07340W 6969 02657 9441 +161 +047 131007 012 041 002 00

Unflagged 134 & 140 knot surface winds.

163430 2607N 07337W 6963 02727 9520 +149 +057 112081 087 134 011 00
163500 2608N 07336W 6959 02769 9597 +113 +059 121100 112 140 025 00
163530 2609N 07335W 6968 02824 9689 +091 +059 126132 135 140 040 03

https://i.imgur.com/l4ojrQN.gif

Part of the eye still S of 26N...

Half of the eye still is, remember that satellite pictures have an angle to them, not looking directly from above the eye when the storm is well north of the equator.
The eye is directly on the 26th latitude per the recon.

[supercane4867]

I'm thinking the current intensity should be raised to 135kt due to consistent SFMR measurements along with improving satellite presentation

[Shell Mound]

The persistent, northwesterly, progressive flow over the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard on the GFS/EC suites is not a pattern that favours CONUS landfalls. The number of incoming shortwaves greatly increases the likelihood of a sharp turn OTS, subsequent to a devastating stall over the northern Bahamas. DORIAN could follow the most southerly of the EC members and still miss the East Coast of the U.S. after impacting the northern Bahamas as a very powerful hurricane. DORIAN will likely be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record ever to impact the Bahamas, especially the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama. Only one Cat-5 on record has impacted the northern Bahamas since 1851: Storm Four of 1932, the "Great Abaco" hurricane (140 knots / < 921 mb). DORIAN is very likely to attain Cat-5 status shortly and be at or near Cat-5 status while over the Bahamas, even considering the likelihood of an EWRC, given that environmental conditions will be favourable for the next two and a half to three days. We shouldn't forget that DORIAN could still be worthy of retirement even if it makes no further landfalls after the Bahamas.

Reference: 1932 Bahamas hurricane

[1900hurricane]

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/1167794141964775425

Do we know the height of those cloud tops around the eye?

Based on the 12Z Key West sounding, probably about 14 km.

[1900hurricane]

I'm thinking the current intensity should be raised to 135kt due to consistent SFMR measurements along with improving satellite presentation

I agree. Only an hour or so until the 18Z best track update. It'll be interesting to see what they put in there.

[GCANE]

PV Streamer has dissipated and ULL has moved SW.
Diabatic Ridge has also moved SW and weakened some.
Appears Dorian is getting more steering from the UL Ridge to the NW.

https://i.imgur.com/IBFcJjq.png

Would that make it track more w/sw ????

Gives it more of a "force" to the WSW, meaning if the forecast track was pointed WNW, it may now steer it more W.