ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CyclonicFury]

We likely won't see an upgrade to Category 5 unless the flight level winds increase to at least 150 kt or so.
 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1167825365122846720

[underthwx]

A weekend of uncertainty underway...

[GCANE]

[vxskaxv]

Hello to all members of Storm2K,
Let me start things off firstly by apologizing for this post/thread interruption. My name is Christopher and I’m a storm/rescue responder in Galveston, Texas. I personally rescued 181 people from Dickinson to Cypress Texas during Hurricane Harvey. 7 days out in pure hell, constantly soaked. For me as a board lurker this is something that has to be said and now is this moment.
1. Everyone on here needs to 100% understand that there are outsiders lurking and reading information here to sadly use said info to make their “leave or stay” and “prep or not to prep” decisions. I personally know that this practice is not ethical but it is happening as we speak, everyday-every year. There seems to be an understanding that this is a board of nothing but scientists and pro meteorologists. So keep that in mind as to how a big portion of people see this board.
2. There is a specific board for “storm model” talk and a specific for “storm non-model discussion”, and you all need to keep it as it was intended. Please stay on topic.
3. Never ever say anyone is “in the clear” at any time, unless you you work for the NHC you do not have that authority. You have to understand that one person may come here and base your one lousy statement as fact and not look at another post and carry on in life, but yet that individual goes and tells others what he or she read. This is not acceptable verbiage. There truly are people in lower Florida as we speak that really are trying to return “Emergency Supplies” that they bought three days ago based on what they erroneously ready from yesterday here. This is extremely concerning.
4. Said “rogue” statements make my job as a storm/emergency first responder very difficult. If an evacuation is ordered for a particular area I need as many as possible to leave said area. Even if I’m the end nothing transpired in said areas. I’ve heard it way too often that a family decided to ride a storm out at last minute and then got trapped and had to be rescued based off an internet board posting. But to learn this statement as I’m standing in 5 feet of septic waters in a flooded neighborhood rescuing families I get very upset at this trend. I have not built my mind and body and reinforced my rescue vehicle and spent thousands on safety gear and medical supplies and food to constantly hear these sickening comments.
5. I appreciate every poster on here wether you add something big or small to the conversation, know it’s appreciated as long as it’s valid speech.
6. To me as a first responder, anyone from North Carolina to Brownsville Texas needs to have one eye open on this current storm and always seek professional information from your local authorities and the NHC when making prep or evacuation plans.
7. Thank you all for those that read this and understand where I’m coming from. I stand ready as rescue support for here in Galveston and if needed I will travel to east coast to help there, if that time comes. Everyone stay safe and once again be mindful of the information you are presenting on here as to exactly how may people and organizations it may have an impact on. God bless you all.

[LarryWx]

Appears to be speeding up again although not to quite as fast as last night. Already close to 73.75 W I think. 12 MPH last 2 hours?

[mpic]

I have friends in Florida who are all over Facebook breathing a sigh of relief. I have to tell myself that they are just putting up a good front, glad that it might not be a direct hit and releasing a lot of tension. They are already prepared if it goes inland. Take some of the relief with a grain of salt. Most people in Florida know better than to not let their guard down until the fat lady sings.

[underthwx]

Hello to all members of Storm2K,
Let me start things off firstly by apologizing for this post/thread interruption. My name is Christopher and I’m a storm/rescue responder in Galveston, Texas. I personally rescued 181 people from Dickinson to Cypress Texas during Hurricane Harvey. 7 days out in pure hell, constantly soaked. For me as a board lurker this is something that has to be said and now is this moment.
1. Everyone on here needs to 100% understand that there are outsiders lurking and reading information here to sadly use said info to make their “leave or stay” and “prep or not to prep” decisions. I personally know that this practice is not ethical but it is happening as we speak, everyday-every year. There seems to be an understanding that this is a board of nothing but scientists and pro meteorologists. So keep that in mind as to how a big portion of people see this board.
2. There is a specific board for “storm model” talk and a specific for “storm non-model discussion”, and you all need to keep it as it was intended. Please stay on topic.
3. Never ever say anyone is “in the clear” at any time, unless you you work for the NHC you do not have that authority. You have to understand that one person may come here and base your one lousy statement as fact and not look at another post and carry on in life, but yet that individual goes and tells others what he or she read. This is not acceptable verbiage. There truly are people in lower Florida as we speak that really are trying to return “Emergency Supplies” that they bought three days ago based on what they erroneously ready from yesterday here. This is extremely concerning.
4. Said “rogue” statements make my job as a storm/emergency first responder very difficult. If an evacuation is ordered for a particular area I need as many as possible to leave said area. Even if I’m the end nothing transpired in said areas. I’ve heard it way too often that a family decided to ride a storm out at last minute and then got trapped and had to be rescued based off an internet board posting. But to learn this statement as I’m standing in 5 feet of septic waters in a flooded neighborhood rescuing families I get very upset at this trend. I have not built my mind and body and reinforced my rescue vehicle and spent thousands on safety gear and medical supplies and food to constantly hear these sickening comments.
5. I appreciate every poster on here wether you add something big or small to the conversation, know it’s appreciated as long as it’s valid speech.
6. To me as a first responder, anyone from North Carolina to Brownsville Texas needs to have one eye open on this current storm and always seek professional information from your local authorities and the NHC when making prep or evacuation plans.
7. Thank you all for those that read this and understand where I’m coming from. I stand ready as rescue support for here in Galveston and if needed I will travel to east coast to help there, if that time comes. Everyone stay safe and once again be mindful of the information you are presenting on here as to exactly how may people and organizations it may have an impact on. God bless you all.

Well said...as a Harvey victim...truer words were never spoken

[Vdogg]

Hot off the press, Dorian has finally reached the 26th Latitude by the latest AF recon pass.

163230 2602N 07340W 6969 02657 9441 +161 +047 131007 012 041 002 00

Unflagged 134 & 140 knot surface winds.

163430 2607N 07337W 6963 02727 9520 +149 +057 112081 087 134 011 00
163500 2608N 07336W 6959 02769 9597 +113 +059 121100 112 140 025 00
163530 2609N 07335W 6968 02824 9689 +091 +059 126132 135 140 040 03

https://i.imgur.com/l4ojrQN.gif

Part of the eye still S of 26N...

They track the center.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hello to all members of Storm2K,
Let me start things off firstly by apologizing for this post/thread interruption. My name is Christopher and I’m a storm/rescue responder in Galveston, Texas. I personally rescued 181 people from Dickinson to Cypress Texas during Hurricane Harvey. 7 days out in pure hell, constantly soaked. For me as a board lurker this is something that has to be said and now is this moment.
1. Everyone on here needs to 100% understand that there are outsiders lurking and reading information here to sadly use said info to make their “leave or stay” and “prep or not to prep” decisions. I personally know that this practice is not ethical but it is happening as we speak, everyday-every year. There seems to be an understanding that this is a board of nothing but scientists and pro meteorologists. So keep that in mind as to how a big portion of people see this board.
2. There is a specific board for “storm model” talk and a specific for “storm non-model discussion”, and you all need to keep it as it was intended. Please stay on topic.
3. Never ever say anyone is “in the clear” at any time, unless you you work for the NHC you do not have that authority. You have to understand that one person may come here and base your one lousy statement as fact and not look at another post and carry on in life, but yet that individual goes and tells others what he or she read. This is not acceptable verbiage. There truly are people in lower Florida as we speak that really are trying to return “Emergency Supplies” that they bought three days ago based on what they erroneously ready from yesterday here. This is extremely concerning.
4. Said “rogue” statements make my job as a storm/emergency first responder very difficult. If an evacuation is ordered for a particular area I need as many as possible to leave said area. Even if I’m the end nothing transpired in said areas. I’ve heard it way too often that a family decided to ride a storm out at last minute and then got trapped and had to be rescued based off an internet board posting. But to learn this statement as I’m standing in 5 feet of septic waters in a flooded neighborhood rescuing families I get very upset at this trend. I have not built my mind and body and reinforced my rescue vehicle and spent thousands on safety gear and medical supplies and food to constantly hear these sickening comments.
5. I appreciate every poster on here wether you add something big or small to the conversation, know it’s appreciated as long as it’s valid speech.
6. To me as a first responder, anyone from North Carolina to Brownsville Texas needs to have one eye open on this current storm and always seek professional information from your local authorities and the NHC when making prep or evacuation plans.
7. Thank you all for those that read this and understand where I’m coming from. I stand ready as rescue support for here in Galveston and if needed I will travel to east coast to help there, if that time comes. Everyone stay safe and once again be mindful of the information you are presenting on here as to exactly how may people and organizations it may have an impact on. God bless you all.

I agree with you 100%. This is what I'm trying to help do in the model thread.

I survived Hurricane Andrew as a boy while visiting relatives in South Florida. People need to stop and listen to the experts at the NHC, rather than model watch so much.

[decgirl66]

Northern Brevard county here! With the current track, can someone give me an estimate on how far off our coast Dorian may pass?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Northern Brevard county here! With the current track, can someone give me an estimate on how far off our coast Dorian may pass?

You should consult the NHC or your local NWS office. Most of us here are not experts rather we are informed hobbyists at best.

[USTropics]

From images updated every 30 minutes 10 years ago, we're now down to 30 seconds. Mesoscale Floater 1 will be updating images of Dorian every 30 seconds now:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

From images updated every 30 minutes 10 years ago, we're now down to 30 seconds. Mesoscale Floater 1 will be updating images of Dorian every 30 seconds now:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thanks for the great link.

[senorpepr]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

[Aric Dunn]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

Yay !

[ricka47]

NHC Director was just interviewed by Dr. Greg Postal on TWC. Stated that they were using “protractors and compasses” to map out the wind field impacts on Florida. It is possible watches will be issued for the coast this afternoon.

Got to love the old school methods sometimes. Even with how advanced our computers sometimes pen and paper with expert wisdom is the best solution. It is my preferred method of navigating offshore and has never failed. I can't tell you how many have gotten way off course with their GPS chart plotters.

It's actually comforting to read that they are just not reading what the computers say and trusting that data. They are a tool, to be sure. But, so is paper, pencil, compass, and protractor!

[NDG]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

Yes!!! Great news!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Northern Brevard county here! With the current track, can someone give me an estimate on how far off our coast Dorian may pass?

It's just too early to tell. This is a complicated setup with a complicated storm. My advice to you would be to intently follow bulletins from the NHC, your NWS WFO, and local emergency management. If you want my estimate? It could be anywhere from three hundred miles offshore to west of you. That's the uncertainty we are dealing with here.

[caneseddy]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

Wonderful news!! It was desperately needed!!

[BrandonJay21]

Good news from the recon front... Gonzo (G-IV) is taxiing for take off!!

Probably dumb question... is Gonzo the plane that will take readings of the the ridge strength?