ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

Looks like it will miss next plot to the north.

https://i.imgur.com/2KwUxUx.gif

If it keeps doing that it'll miss the Bahamas slightly to the North.

The core might miss but rain impacts won't.

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like it will miss next plot to the north.

https://i.imgur.com/2KwUxUx.gif

If it keeps doing that it'll miss the Bahamas slightly to the North.

The core might miss but rain impacts won't.

Many models actually have it turning more west over the next 24hrs so they could definitely get the core, certainly the southern eyewall.

[Kohlecane]

Are there any models or maps showing potential Storm surge??

[northjaxpro]

Dorian's likely intensifying again, going for a W ring

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2604554504a18270aff6d231069aee63cdeef8158b86932bbfec1fc30a5469df.gif

Great satellite image. WOW!! Look at the perfect ring of convection within the inner eyewall. This is one hell of an impressive tropical cyçlone. They do not get any better looking on satellite presentation alone than this!!

[ronyan]

If it keeps doing that it'll miss the Bahamas slightly to the North.

The core might miss but rain impacts won't.

Many models actually have it turning more west over the next 24hrs so they could definitely get the core, certainly the southern eyewall.

Just acknowledging the possibility, I think it's more likely they will take a direct hit from the core.

[senorpepr]

TEAL 71 is getting ready to depart Keesler for a low-level fix on Dorian.

[CrazyC83]

Dorian's likely intensifying again, going for a W ring

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2604554504a18270aff6d231069aee63cdeef8158b86932bbfec1fc30a5469df.gif

That might be enough for a cat 5 since Dorian has outperformed Dvorak so far. That would easily be T6.5.

[Kazmit]

I’m surprised an EWRC hasn’t started. It’s been maintaining this intensity or strengthening for a while now.

[TorSkk]

Are there any models or maps showing potential Storm surge??

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/#map

[Blown Away]

South/Central Florida may be out of cone at 5pm per the TVCN. North Florida will be because it's still in the larger 5 day cone.

[chaser1]

https://youtu.be/Hue3IzgkVRA

Good link; have always liked and appreciated Bryan's analyses of hurricanes and the prevailing conditions

[TheStormExpert]

I feel bad for the Abacos and Grand Bahama which are about to experience a full blown Cat.4 head on.

I been over to the Abacos MANY of times and have a friend with a house on Man-O-War Cay, probably the best major island out of the several different Bahama islands I’ve been too.

[chaser1]

Satellite presentation has only improved.. very likely a Cat 5..

Agreed. Perhaps has been one for a few hours now

[TorSkk]

Satellite presentation has only improved.. very likely a Cat 5..

Agreed. Perhaps has been one for a few hours now

OHC and MPI increasing

[chaser1]

I think we're on the cusp of this becoming a category 5 any moment now. Somebody else mentioned that this would be the 4th year in a row with a cat 5 in the atlantic basin too.

I agree. It may be already a Cat 5.

LOL, you beat me to it

[sikkar]

Greetings. Any estimate when recon will be in the eye in eastern time?

[chaser1]

Dorian's likely intensifying again, going for a W ring

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2604554504a18270aff6d231069aee63cdeef8158b86932bbfec1fc30a5469df.gif

That BD Curve doughnut reminds me of Andrew (intensity wise)

[Blown Away]

Wonder if the current sampling mission being done out in front of Dorian will have any noticeable effects on the 18z and/or 00z modeling??

[CrazyC83]

I doubt the NHC will increase the intensity before Recon arrives though. It's not obvious enough with an aircraft a few hours away (and even when obvious, they are willing to wait).

[Bad_Hurricane]

12z UKMET ensembles likes Miami-Dade again.