ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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hohnywx
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4621 Postby hohnywx » Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:55 pm

TS Watches posted from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4622 Postby dukeblue219 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:55 pm

hohnywx wrote:5 PM advisory stays at 150 MPH. Movement remains W at 8 MPH.

Watches are up for Florida now FWIW.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4623 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:02 pm

mutley wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Bad_Hurricane wrote:12z UKMET ensembles likes Miami-Dade again.
https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png


UKMET is going to lose some cred by the end of this storm.


How sure are you of that?


Sure enough to put it in writing. :wink:

Check back with me in a couple of days.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4624 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:03 pm

ozonepete wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Slowed down again. Speed changes due to wobbling?


Speed changes also occur just before a recurve.


5PM NHC update expects the track to continue toward The northern tip of Great Abaco.

Current heading is north of west with wobbles and would cross 27N near ~77W.
Models NHC following suggest a turn to the NW track crossing 27.5 - 27.75N near 77W.
HWRF runs that show a recurve are near the 27.75 benchmark.

Slower forward speed that is usually associated with trochoidal wobbling would help.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4625 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:06 pm

Bad_Hurricane wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Bad_Hurricane wrote:12z UKMET ensembles likes Miami-Dade again.
https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png


UKMET is going to lose some cred by the end of this storm.


Possible, but we’ll see...


Yup. Don't get me wrong - I am a big UKMET fan. :)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4626 Postby otowntiger » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:12 pm

The NHC no longer mentioning possible Florida landfall. Pretty clear signal is the tropical storm watches as opposed to hurricane watches. If they had doubts they would post hurricane watch as that would only say hurricane conditions are possible. Apparently only T.S. conditions are possible and hurricane conditions unlikely.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4627 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:15 pm

Nimbus wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Slowed down again. Speed changes due to wobbling?


Speed changes also occur just before a recurve.


5PM NHC update expects the track to continue toward The northern tip of Great Abaco.

Current heading is north of west with wobbles and would cross 27N near ~77W.
Models NHC following suggest a turn to the NW track crossing 27.5 - 27.75N near 77W.
HWRF runs that show a recurve are near the 27.75 benchmark.

Slower forward speed that is usually associated with trochoidal wobbling would help.


All of what you said is great except for "slower forward speed usually associated with trochoidal wobbling." That is not correct. Trochoidal wobbling does not cause a slowing of speed. It is part of the forward "stair-stepping" motion. In this case Dorian has been doing trochoidal motion for a long time now so any recent or newly occuring slow down will not be because of trochoidal motion.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4628 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:19 pm

otowntiger wrote:The NHC no longer mentioning possible Florida landfall. Pretty clear signal is the tropical storm watches as opposed to hurricane watches. If they had doubts they would post hurricane watch as that would only say hurricane conditions are possible. Apparently only T.S. conditions are possible and hurricane conditions unlikely.

They do say “Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or
Sunday.”
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4629 Postby norva13x » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:20 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:
otowntiger wrote:The NHC no longer mentioning possible Florida landfall. Pretty clear signal is the tropical storm watches as opposed to hurricane watches. If they had doubts they would post hurricane watch as that would only say hurricane conditions are possible. Apparently only T.S. conditions are possible and hurricane conditions unlikely.

They do say “Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or
Sunday.”


Yeah I don't think they are saying that a landfall isn't possible. It's still well within the 3 day cone even. If they were more confident most of the cone would be further east I would think.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4630 Postby psyclone » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:22 pm

otowntiger wrote:The NHC no longer mentioning possible Florida landfall. Pretty clear signal is the tropical storm watches as opposed to hurricane watches. If they had doubts they would post hurricane watch as that would only say hurricane conditions are possible. Apparently only T.S. conditions are possible and hurricane conditions unlikely.

It also helps that Dorian is a small storm. I always emphasize wind probs over cone or center track. I still recall Charley passing 60 or so miles to my east with 100+mph gusts and the sun was out here with a light breeze. these tightly knotted vortexes are something else...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4631 Postby MacTavish » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:26 pm

I could be wrong but it almost looked like outflow might be starting to be restricted a little bit on the NW side of the storm
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4632 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:26 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Speed changes also occur just before a recurve.


5PM NHC update expects the track to continue toward The northern tip of Great Abaco.

Current heading is north of west with wobbles and would cross 27N near ~77W.
Models NHC following suggest a turn to the NW track crossing 27.5 - 27.75N near 77W.
HWRF runs that show a recurve are near the 27.75 benchmark.

Slower forward speed that is usually associated with trochoidal wobbling would help.


All of what you said is great except for "slower forward speed usually associated with trochoidal wobbling." That is not correct. Trochoidal wobbling does not cause a slowing of speed. It is part of the forward "stair-stepping" motion. In this case Dorian has been doing trochoidal motion for a long time now so any recent or newly occuring slow down will not be because of trochoidal motion.


Same speed but longer distance to cover..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4633 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:29 pm

Won't be surprised if recon finds Dorian very close CAT5 intensity.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4634 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:29 pm

Image

Dorian still chugging away just a hair N of due W... Same pace all day, no slowdown yet...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4635 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:31 pm

otowntiger wrote:The NHC no longer mentioning possible Florida landfall. Pretty clear signal is the tropical storm watches as opposed to hurricane watches. If they had doubts they would post hurricane watch as that would only say hurricane conditions are possible. Apparently only T.S. conditions are possible and hurricane conditions unlikely.


doesn't mean that at all....it only makes sense that trop storm watches go up first because trop force winds extend MUCH further out than hurricane winds...as the storm approaches we may very well still see hurricane watches
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4636 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:31 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Won't be surprised if recon finds Dorian very close CAT5 intensity.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/NnnF7lL.jpg[/rl]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/3fTLuqV.jpg[/ul]

Agreed. Considerably colder cloud tops compared to 12 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4637 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:32 pm

Nimbus wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
5PM NHC update expects the track to continue toward The northern tip of Great Abaco.

Current heading is north of west with wobbles and would cross 27N near ~77W.
Models NHC following suggest a turn to the NW track crossing 27.5 - 27.75N near 77W.
HWRF runs that show a recurve are near the 27.75 benchmark.

Slower forward speed that is usually associated with trochoidal wobbling would help.


All of what you said is great except for "slower forward speed usually associated with trochoidal wobbling." That is not correct. Trochoidal wobbling does not cause a slowing of speed. It is part of the forward "stair-stepping" motion. In this case Dorian has been doing trochoidal motion for a long time now so any recent or newly occuring slow down will not be because of trochoidal motion.


Same speed but longer distance to cover..


I tried. :)
Last edited by ozonepete on Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4638 Postby WeatherOrKnot » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:33 pm

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but Palm Beach County Schools are closed Tuesday.
Last edited by WeatherOrKnot on Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4639 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:33 pm

Microwave pass at 20z shows no signs of ERC

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4640 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:37 pm

Something feels very creepy and wrong about this storm. Maybe it’s just its intensity and lack of concern about it holding together. Maybe it’s the forecasted stall. The aircraft issues causing multiple cancelled recon flights. I dunno. Seems like something is wrong. This one isn’t like any other I’ve tracked in 20 years and it’s weird.
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