ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4621 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:34 am

12Z GFS is running

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4622 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:34 am

12z GFS just a tick south of 06z with stronger ridging through 18 hours.
Last edited by FLpanhandle91 on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4623 Postby Airboy » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:35 am

So the ICON have a stronger ridge forcing it in and up Florida as I can understand it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4624 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 am

GFS Trend - 24hrs

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4625 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 am

GFS initialized a hair south of 06z.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4626 Postby b0tzy29 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:12z GFS just a tick south of 06z with stronger ridging through 19 hours.



Ooooooo boyyy, here we go.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4627 Postby alienstorm » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 am

GFS slightly south of 00z at 24 hrs. Here we go.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4628 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:37 am

You can see in the 250mb GFS charts, there is a bit more of an eastern extension in ridging, causing a slight south shift on the 12z GFS run:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4629 Postby Kat5 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:37 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:12z GFS just a tick south of 06z with stronger ridging through 18 hours.



Ridge seems the same as 06z.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4630 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:37 am

12z GFS going to hit Abaco Island this time with either a direct hit or with at least the eyewall, looks like its going to be rough there.

When will the turn occur, thats whats going to be interesting to see, should know soon.

GFS looks good to me now through to 24hrs.
Last edited by KWT on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4631 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:38 am

Kat5 wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:12z GFS just a tick south of 06z with stronger ridging through 18 hours.



Ridge seems the same as 06z.


Erodes to a similar level as 06z at 30 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4632 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:39 am

:eek: :eek:

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1167821051931189253


Last edited by SFLcane on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4633 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:40 am

When has ICON ever forecasted anything with accuracy besides intensity
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4634 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:40 am

Good Deal SW of 06Z run @ 42 hours - over northern end of Grand Bahama
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4635 Postby b0tzy29 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:41 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:When has ICON ever forecasted anything with accuracy besides intensity


It is a different ICON. It is the new German ICON. Not the Intensity Consensus ICON
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4636 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:42 am

12z ICON moves it N-NW up the spine of Florida after landfall in Ft Laud. What might be a trend to look at is ICON brings it south of the northern Bahama islands and doesn't stall it like the Euro. Second longer term trend is look at the strengthening 500mb ridge south of Bermuda and east of the storm in days 4-5. This massive ridge is expanding and extending all the way to almost the NC coast and keeping the storm from recurving until it reaches north Florida on this run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019083112&fh=3
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4637 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:42 am

Still slightly stronger ridging through 42 hours. Looks as though the low to its west is also stronger as well.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4638 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:42 am

so for the GFS to verifiy it has to start moving 290 to 300 right now..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4639 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:42 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:When has ICON ever forecasted anything with accuracy besides intensity


There's not enough data to really say how accurate it is (some of the members in the UK stated it's pretty accurate there). With that said, it was the first to consistently show a track to east of PR when the other models did not:
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Last edited by USTropics on Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4640 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:43 am

48hr Trend

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