ATL: DORIAN - Models

[FLpanhandle91]

Ridge building back at 48 hours. 20 miles or so south of 06z.

[KWT]

NW motion between 42-48hrs has started. Still somewhat further north than some of the other models that ran on the 06z suite though, including the 06z ECM.

[b0tzy29]

GFS 12Z - slight shift south from previous run at 48 hours.

[Kat5]

When has ICON ever forecasted anything with accuracy besides intensity

Did well with Barry trajectory, but still not enough to give it enough credit. I treat it as the same level as the HRRR.

[MrJames]

Both GFS models have shifted south and west but remain offshore through 54hrs.

[AutoPenalti]

There hasn’t been any sampling inputted into these runs correct?

[chris_fit]

Has moved ZERO between 54 - and 64 hours - SSW of the 06Z run - this run smells different to me

[SunnyThoughts]

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Weak steering currents & stalling storms should never be trusted.

With 72 hours before Dorian turns north, even a 1 mph error in the storm's speed until then could result in a 72 mile error in how far west Dorian gets.

Stay vigilant. More changes could occur. It's a tough one.

[chris_fit]

Finally turning N at 72 hrs

[FLpanhandle91]

Has moved ZERO between 54 - and 64 hours - SSW of the 06Z run - this run smells different to me

06z EPS picked up on this. Initial trough may miss which allows slight NW movement before the second trough pulls it offshore.

[FLpanhandle91]

Finally turning N at 72 hrs

Yes but the ridging looks stronger ahead of it.

[norva13x]

The good news for Florida is it still appears to stay offshore. The bad news is a shift S and W. We'll see if it becomes a trend.

[USTropics]

Very close call, ridging is trying to build in over the top:

[Aric Dunn]

Simple fact.. for this and the other GFS run.. it needs to be moving 300 to verify..

so we need to watch his motion. but looking at everythihg continued west seems likely.

[KWT]

Still moving roughly NNW out to 72hrs. So still gaining slight longitude even out to that point which is interesting.

[Blown Away]

It appears the 12z GFS initialed a hair N of actual position...

[Jr0d]

When has ICON ever forecasted anything with accuracy besides intensity

Did well with Barry trajectory, but still not enough to give it enough credit. I treat it as the same level as the HRRR.

So far it's been performing great with Dorian. Something that needs to be noted before writing it off.

Normally with it being an outlier of the big 3 I would throw it out. Not yet this time.

[chris_fit]

While W of the 06 run, the 12Z GFS turns Dorian well before FL - it is slightly slower and turn comes a little later

[supercane4867]

Hard to miss the Carolinas on this angle. Probably will landfall somewhere in NC

[chris_fit]