ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Latest UL Conditions

[Ian2401]

recon cant get to this storm fast enough

[Blown Away]

Back to due W @270, was a hair N of W most of day... Riding the N side of 26N...

[Aric Dunn]

Latest UL Conditions

https://i.imgur.com/vqOCZnv.png

yep i have been watching that 250 mb feature all day. very interesting.

[CronkPSU]

https://i.imgur.com/BN5MvlF.gif

Back to due W @270, was a hair N of W most of day... Riding the N side of 26N...

hate to use the "other" over used hated A word...but is it gonna go annular?

[Ian2401]

def the most due west its ever been. pretty much dead 270 for the past twoish hours

[xironman]

Back to due W @270, was a hair N of W most of day... Riding the N side of 26N...

It is going to keep chugging alone that away until Monday morning, enjoy the show

[jdjaguar]

Northjaxpro

To your post on the models thread.
I am debating whether to stay or evacuate
So the proximity to the shore is paramount

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1167927888009547776

[northjaxpro]

JDJaguar,

The latest projection by the GFS 18Z run does have the eyewall of Dorian passing about 60 miles offshore of Mayport. If this verifies, yeah hurricane force wind confitions einds will definitely be likely experienced at the coast with potential of winds 60-70 mph at least about 20-25 miles inland from the ciast. This would invlude areas along I-95 corrifor into Downtown metro Jax on Wednesday evening, based on the 18Z GFS.

Now, remember, and you should be we aware of to this juncyure, this can change. The disturbing thing is the last 3 GFS run packages has shown a shift to the southwest.

NO ONE SHOULD BE TAKING THEIR EYES OFF OF THIS MONSTER ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA!!

[xironman]

Could be the light form the time of day but looks like some new mesos are forming around the eyewall

[Nimbus]

https://i.imgur.com/BN5MvlF.gif

Back to due W @270, was a hair N of W most of day... Riding the N side of 26N...

Its done that twice before, gained no latitude between 3 hr observations, the first time after gaining .5 degrees the second time after just .2 so we will be due for another jog wnw. With the slower average forward speed it might not be very noticeable.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://media.giphy.com/media/f6hKr4msnJLsRleK8X/giphy.gif

This is literally... The Picture of Dorian [in] Grey.

...okay I will see myself out now.

Bravo. I've been trying to come up with a way to work that into the conversation (meaning The Portrait of Dorian Grey), but you beat me to it AND it was funny.

I saw someone say this on Tumblr so don’t be too impressed with me.
(Perhaps The Potrait of Dorian [in] Cold Medium Gray?)

[Siker]

Eric Webb just pointed out something on Twitter that I also learned recently: operational models do not initialize “fresh” every time from observations. They are a compromise between new observations and the previous forecast, i.e the 18z GFS = 12z GFS + obs between 12z and 18z (roughly). So adjustments due to new obs should be immediately evident in a new run, but may take several cycles to reach their full effect.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Western eye wall is becoming visible on radar - http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

[JtSmarts]

I've been watching the evolution of Dorian's size and comparing it to other notable hurricanes of past. According to the latest NHC advisory, Dorian's H-winds extend 30 miles from the center and ts winds extend 105 miles from the center. The best comparisons right now are Andrew while he was between South Florida and the Bahamas, and Charley (2004) near landfall in Punta Gorda. Both had similar wind field expansion.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/p ... .018.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_ ... al0492.031

[Aric Dunn]

And the real story with the steering ...

[tolakram]

Dorian over on Mesoscale1 now. Here's some links.

visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1045&y=984.5

IR
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=1017&y=1021

[rdcrds]

Just because they say it’s going to turn. Doesn’t mean it will.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[mlfreeman]

Just finished a day down in the Crescent Beach/Marineland/Flagler Beach area (NE Florida)
It’s dead, especially for Labor Day weekend. Virtually no one is here.
Lots of boarded up windows.
To me it looks like people are taking this seriously thank god.