ATL: DORIAN - Models

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4661 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:58 am

Anyone got then new UKMET?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4662 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:58 am

Jr0d wrote:
Kat5 wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:When has ICON ever forecasted anything with accuracy besides intensity


Did well with Barry trajectory, but still not enough to give it enough credit. I treat it as the same level as the HRRR.


So far it's been performing great with Dorian. Something that needs to be noted before writing it off.

Normally with it being an outlier of the big 3 I would throw it out. Not yet this time.


Well it appears it has been doing quite well in the 1 to 3 day period.

So yeah we cant count it out.. especially with the EPS showing multiple similar tracks.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4663 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:59 am

Gfs sparing florida

If the euro comes in right of florida we are going to have a big model war
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4664 Postby beachman80 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:59 am

GFs continues to pose good news for Fla, but bad news for Bahamas and Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4665 Postby norva13x » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:00 am

beachman80 wrote:GFs continues to pose good news for Fla, but bad news for Bahamas and Carolinas.


Maybe. If it continues to trend S and W that is not good news for Florida either.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4666 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:01 am

12z GFS may not LF
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4667 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:01 am

12z legacy is back on the coast near the cape...at 78 hrs...big shift west from its 06z run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4668 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:02 am

GFS appears to be very close to the official NHC forecast.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4669 Postby Raebie » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:03 am

This run is looking less than spectacular for Wilmington.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4670 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:04 am

GFS Legacy Trend

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4671 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:04 am

ronjon wrote:12z legacy is back on the coast near the cape...at 78 hrs...big shift west from its 06z run.


Yes, that is indeed a large shift to the left. Since the GFS ensembles still run off the legacy, it will be interesting to see what they show
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4672 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:05 am

12z UKMET: Remains east of FL, very close to SC/NC though.

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 73.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2019 0 25.8N 73.0W 986 60
0000UTC 01.09.2019 12 26.3N 75.2W 984 63
1200UTC 01.09.2019 24 26.4N 76.8W 978 66
0000UTC 02.09.2019 36 26.5N 77.8W 968 65
1200UTC 02.09.2019 48 26.5N 78.3W 963 69
0000UTC 03.09.2019 60 26.6N 78.5W 954 75
1200UTC 03.09.2019 72 26.9N 78.7W 944 79
0000UTC 04.09.2019 84 28.1N 79.5W 923 94
1200UTC 04.09.2019 96 29.5N 80.4W 931 91
0000UTC 05.09.2019 108 31.2N 80.1W 932 90
1200UTC 05.09.2019 120 32.8N 78.5W 925 93
0000UTC 06.09.2019 132 34.7N 75.5W 927 94
1200UTC 06.09.2019 144 36.1N 71.5W 940 80
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4673 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:06 am

GFS: Center barely missed LF in NC.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4674 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:06 am

Airboy wrote:So the ICON have a stronger ridge forcing it in and up Florida as I can understand it.


Icon isn't a very good model so I wouldn't put much weight into it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4675 Postby La Sirena » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:08 am

TheDreamTraveler wrote:
Airboy wrote:So the ICON have a stronger ridge forcing it in and up Florida as I can understand it.


Icon isn't a very good model so I wouldn't put much weight into it.

Are you getting the 2 confused?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4676 Postby MrJames » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:08 am

12z UKMet shifts west but still offshore.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4677 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:08 am

Also, the 06z HWRF crossed 74W at 26.5N... 30-40 miles N of current position...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4678 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:08 am

The UKMO is still offshore but got to say, thats really not that far from brushing the east coast of Florida on that 12z, a fairly close approach and wouldn't take much of a westward shift to bring the eyewall close to the coast....
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4679 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:10 am

South Texas Storms wrote:12z UKMET: Remains east of FL, very close to SC/NC though.

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 73.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2019 0 25.8N 73.0W 986 60
0000UTC 01.09.2019 12 26.3N 75.2W 984 63
1200UTC 01.09.2019 24 26.4N 76.8W 978 66
0000UTC 02.09.2019 36 26.5N 77.8W 968 65
1200UTC 02.09.2019 48 26.5N 78.3W 963 69
0000UTC 03.09.2019 60 26.6N 78.5W 954 75
1200UTC 03.09.2019 72 26.9N 78.7W 944 79
0000UTC 04.09.2019 84 28.1N 79.5W 923 94
1200UTC 04.09.2019 96 29.5N 80.4W 931 91
0000UTC 05.09.2019 108 31.2N 80.1W 932 90
1200UTC 05.09.2019 120 32.8N 78.5W 925 93
0000UTC 06.09.2019 132 34.7N 75.5W 927 94
1200UTC 06.09.2019 144 36.1N 71.5W 940 80




key thing here is the barely any north component for 48 hours until the stall.. all it has to do is continue that west motion for another 6 hours and its onshore florida.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#4680 Postby norva13x » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:12 am

Looks like a trend west for current model runs. Hopefully it doesn't continue. Not out of the woods.
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