ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

I would like to see pressures <935 or so before being confident in cat 5 winds at the surface but wind/pressure relationships aren't always spot on. We'll see.

[supercane4867]

It's getting there. Trying to push for DT7.0

[JtSmarts]

Latest Video From Levi Cowan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhOmkDxmcOY

[pcolaman]

Just heard some of the evaluation orders were recended from one county . OMG there crazy for that

[Kingarabian]

Still no signs of EWR on the new microwave pass. I'm quite surprised that it can hold such intense inner core for this long

https://i.imgur.com/yvRKDuy.jpg

I'm surprised it has such high winds despite the core looking like that. Makes one wonder how really under estimated EPAC hurricanes and WPAC typhoons are.

Note: please ignore my psot and keep the discussion about Dorian and let's not have a war about Typhoons and recon etc lol.

[caneseddy]

Just heard some of the evaluation orders were recended from one county . OMG there crazy for that

Martin County. They were going to issue the order tomorrow but they rescinded them this evening because of the new forecast track

[Highteeld]

155 knots WPAC



135 knots (ish) Atlantic

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR

148 knots
(~ 170.3 mph)

I don't see how this doesn't justify at least 135 knots.

[Hammy]

SFMR

148 knots
(~ 170.3 mph)

I don't see how this doesn't justify at least 135 knots.

That whole eyewall set was flagged.

[Highteeld]

SFMR

148 knots
(~ 170.3 mph)

I don't see how this doesn't justify at least 135 knots.

That whole eyewall set was flagged.

Only 1 was

[supercane4867]

Those SFMR winds are off the charts...It's really hard to convince me that they don't matter at all. I hope an in-depth post season analysis can explain this.

[MetroMike]

Latest Video From Levi Cowan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhOmkDxmcOY

He has a great explanation of the G4 mission and the ridge that was slightly stronger that was ingested into the GFS 18z
data.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR

148 knots
(~ 170.3 mph)

I don't see how this doesn't justify at least 135 knots.

That whole eyewall set was flagged.

Doesn't show up as flagged on the Tropicalatlantic site.

[Yellow Evan]

Even a blend of 90% and raw SFMR would support 140 now...

[Highteeld]

Even a blend of 90% and raw SFMR would support 140 now...

Special NHC update like yesterday?

[NDG]

AF recon's vortex message from the first pass:

459
URNT12 KNHC 312357
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 31/23:22:10Z
B. 26.19 deg N 074.61 deg W
C. 700 mb 2577 m
D. 941 mb
E. 150 deg 8 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C14
H. 143 kt
I. 328 deg 8 nm 23:19:00Z
J. 061 deg 144 kt
K. 328 deg 8 nm 23:19:00Z
L. 120 kt
M. 143 deg 10 nm 23:25:00Z
N. 237 deg 120 kt
O. 145 deg 9 nm 23:24:30Z
P. 14 C / 2443 m
Q. 19 C / 2436 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF308 2505A DORIAN OB 09
MAX FL WIND 144 KT 328 / 8 NM 23:19:00Z
;

[Yellow Evan]

Even a blend of 90% and raw SFMR would support 140 now...

Special NHC update like yesterday?

There's no need given it's just a 10 knot increase IMO.

[TorSkk]

Even a blend of 90% and raw SFMR would support 140 now...

Special NHC update like yesterday?

There's no need given it's just a 10 knot increase IMO.

Yesterday's special update was a 5 knot increase

[supercane4867]

Classic look for a marginal CAT5. Resembles many 135kt storms in the EPAC

[Highteeld]

Perhaps it's the categorical increase that the NHC justify special update off of