ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Special NHC update like yesterday?

There's no need given it's just a 10 knot increase IMO.

Yesterday's special update was a 5 knot increase

True but the NHC has been surprisingly liberal with TC updates these last couple years.

[xironman]

Looking where kermit is finding the center still basically due west.

[CyclonicFury]

Based on what has happened so far I don't see NHC upgrading Dorian to Category 5 unless flight-level winds reach around 155 kt.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Based on what has happened so far I don't see NHC upgrading Dorian to Category 5 unless flight-level winds reach around 155 kt.

Dropsonde shows plenty of winds >159 knots right above the ground.

I don't get it. Why use the SFMR if you think it's going to be high biased for intense hurricanes at all?

[Hammy]

Based on what has happened so far I don't see NHC upgrading Dorian to Category 5 unless flight-level winds reach around 155 kt.

Dropsonde shows plenty of winds >159 knots right above the ground.

I don't get it. Why use the SFMR if you think it's going to be high biased for intense hurricanes at all?

Still helps determine wind radii even if it's not accurate in stronger systems.

[CFLHurricane]

I’m thinking Dorian has already earned his retirement based upon the unique case study his journey has generated thus far.

[chris_fit]

He looks right on NHC track with a slight N component

[CyclonicFury]

Based on what has happened so far I don't see NHC upgrading Dorian to Category 5 unless flight-level winds reach around 155 kt.

Dropsonde shows plenty of winds >159 knots right above the ground.

I don't get it. Why use the SFMR if you think it's going to be high biased for intense hurricanes at all?

This still confuses me because it is not consistent with what NHC did before 2018. Matthew was upgraded to 145 kt based entirely off ONE SFMR reading of 143 kt, yet there have been several 138+ kt SFMR readings for Dorian on multiple aircraft and NHC continues to blend the flight-level and SFMR winds.

[Highteeld]

[NDG]

Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Based on what has happened so far I don't see NHC upgrading Dorian to Category 5 unless flight-level winds reach around 155 kt.

Dropsonde shows plenty of winds >159 knots right above the ground.

I don't get it. Why use the SFMR if you think it's going to be high biased for intense hurricanes at all?

Still helps determine wind radii even if it's not accurate in stronger systems.

You can reduce from flight level for the same info.

This is more of a Cat 5 than Matthew was, IMO.

[Highteeld]

[Mzshellg]

Hi everyone. I'm just a weather buff and I've been lurking on here for years, especially during hurricane season. Observing the updates and models etc, when should Dorian start making that northerly turn in order to avoid any land as it's forecast to do? Timing is everything. Is there any indication that the high pressure ridge is going to weaken enough to allow Dorian to move north in time?

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'm still seeing a heading of 275 to 280, definitely not <270. Just my eyes though.

[NDG]

He looks right on NHC track with a slight N component

That's because they keep re-adjusting it southward on every update.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looking at the just in soundings across the SE US coast from Newport NC and Charleston SC mid level heights are still at 592 dm, JAX 591 dm and over Miami the whole atmospheric column winds are all from the east, from the low levels to the upper levels. The ridge is still strong to the north of Dorian.

The special balloon data for the 00z runs? Anything you think might influence the next cycle?

[northjaxpro]

I’m thinking Dorian has already earned his retirement based upon the unique case study his journey has generated thus far.

No doubt.Dorian is in the history book for sure already but the journey with him .still has a long way to go yet before he is done for good unfortunately. :

[Blinhart]

With all these different SMFR and Dropsondes showing 156+ winds multiple times, I think they should do an upgrade to 160, we all know in post season analysis this will be upgraded to Cat 5 in most likelihood, so why not do it now to help set off other things that are set off for Cat 5 that aren't set off for Cat 4 (states and countries set certain things to do for each level of a Hurricane), with it about 90% going to hit the Bahamas, I would rather them be prepared for a Cat 5 instead of a Cat 4.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hi everyone. I'm just a weather buff and I've been lurking on here for years, especially during hurricane season. Observing the updates and models etc, when should Dorian start making that northerly turn in order to avoid any land as it's forecast to do? Timing is everything. Is there any indication that the high pressure ridge is going to weaken enough to allow Dorian to move north in time?

That's why NOAA has a Gulfstream jet in the ridge, gathering data for the model runs. 0z should start to have a better clue as that data is input.

[STRiZZY]

Noticing a slight NW wobble on the last few frames by Dorian. We'll see if the due west track continues after or if this is a more longer term direction.

I hate wobble watching idk why I do it lol.