ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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abajan
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4841 Postby abajan » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:17 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/TuTU3lC.gif

Latest... Very slight N wobble then back to due W... Seems to picked up a little speed...

The eye appears to be contracting in that GIF.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4842 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:19 pm

Image

Nearing T6.5.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4843 Postby sikkar » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:22 pm

Eye completely showing on Bahamas radar.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4844 Postby wx98 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:24 pm

Up for another recon pass from the NOAA plane...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4845 Postby Ian2401 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:24 pm

i wonder if NHC shift cone W at 11?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4846 Postby sponger » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:26 pm

Ian2401 wrote:i wonder if NHC shift cone W at 11?


How could they not. May want to wait for Euro but I would bet they negate some of today's massive East shift.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4847 Postby Evenstar » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:27 pm

Kazmit wrote:
Evenstar wrote:
jdjaguar wrote:Treasure Cay is about to get absolutely hammered.


I don't know anything about the topography of the Bahamas and I'm curious what their emergency/evacuation plan looks like for a CAT 5.

I just went on Google Earth and found that most of the land is below 30ft above sea level. Storm surge will be a major problem. Hopefully as many people leave as possible.


Yeah, I'm having visions of apocalyptic-style storm surge. I'm very concerned about the poor folks in the Bahamas. I hope they are ready for Dorian, because he's almost certainly coming and he's bringing hell with him.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4848 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:27 pm

I want to say this is the highest flight level winds recorded yet with Dorian.

012000 2618N 07502W 7512 02116 9567 +150 //// 037139 151 153 045 01
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4849 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:29 pm

Still straight west.
26.2N 74.8W
938.6mb
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4850 Postby StruThiO » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:29 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4851 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:29 pm

SFMR up to 153 knots! Flight level winds also support Cat 5 intensity. Wouldn't be surprised if it's upgraded here shortly.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4852 Postby southerngale » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:29 pm

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1167910618000584704




 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1167952347567312896


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4853 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:29 pm

938 extrap
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4854 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:30 pm

Last time I saw SFMR that high was Hurricane Lane last year
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4855 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:30 pm

If this isn't a Category 5, I don't know what is.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4856 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:30 pm

With flight level winds over 150 knots, this could be enough to push category 5 intensity. Especially since the SMFR shows over 150 knots too.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4857 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:31 pm

GCANE wrote:Still straight west.
26.2N 74.8W
938.6mb


That 250/200 mb high looks like it is imparting a little more steering on it.. you can see it in the high level flow to the NW of Dorian..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4858 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:31 pm

141 knt 30-sec avg surface in the clear
Cat 5
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4859 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:33 pm

abajan wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/TuTU3lC.gif

Latest... Very slight N wobble then back to due W... Seems to picked up a little speed...

The eye appears to be contracting in that GIF.


The official forecast has it near 76W at 2 PM tomorrow and its moving too fast over the last couple hours. Hopefully it slows some soon or they will have to shift the track back onto the Florida coast.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#4860 Postby MacTavish » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:33 pm

Recon supports cat5 no question.
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