ATL: DORIAN - Models

[floridasun78]

Next poster who says someone is in the clear gets a 10 day timeout.

AM I CLEAR. Also, if you keep responding to these trolling posts you may end up with a timeout as well.

Cut the crap, stay on topic.

that good move i seen few post saying you go out notthing worry about their not look track long time not seen how their change track and modles change too

[BobHarlem]

https://i.imgur.com/8LGucMC.png

Keep in mind the Euro 48 hours ago had a landfall near Destin on the Florida panhandle...

It also had it almost perfect where it is currently even 72 hours ago.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Something I have noticed is that the ULL that has been west of Dorian for some time was forecast to be diving SW and weakening. As far as I can see, its not doing that but moving west almost in tandem with Dorian. I also (looking on WV) dont think this coming shortwave is as strong as forecast. I dont know what the implications of those two thing would be in conjunction with modeling, but I find it valuable to acknowledge what you see with your own two eyes rather than constant model watching where you dont really take a look at the pattern unfolding that you can see.
Also, with an approaching shortwave I would expect humidity levels in the Atlanta Metro (where I am) to be increasing with SW flow...yet RH is at 40% which is quite low for this area this time of year.

[toad strangler]

Anyone with a 12z UKMET plot ?

[MrJames]

Anyone with a 12z UKMET plot ?

[Blown Away]

12z ICON... Back to landfall in Miami then up the peninsula...

[Blown Away]

12z NAVGEM... Decent shift W and brushes Florida then up to GA/Carolinas...

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/qkXC0yG.gif

12z ICON... Back to landfall in Miami then up the peninsula...

Yep...This was posted a few pages back it did very well as Dorian left the Caribbean but at this point I’d discard it considering it has 0 support from other models.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/qkXC0yG.gif

12z ICON... Back to landfall in Miami then up the peninsula...

That looks like it would be quite a problem for Atlantic Canada long term

[crimi481]

Do any models show a south movement, due to lack of steering? "South" is a word not used too much.

[Nimbus]

Don't let your guard down yet, the 06z stall on the ECWMF is a bit concerning still, it's highlighting how subtle steering currents are, the amount of ridging and strength/orientation of the trough are still to be determined. I'd feel more confident in an offshore track if the ensemble mean of the UKMET jumps offshore at 12z. Dorian has proven to be a difficult storm to forecast, even 3 days out, was forecasted to hit Hispaniola, none of the ensemble guidance from the GFS/UKMET/ECMWF even showed a possibility of going east of Puerto Rico.

https://i.imgur.com/iZdszWn.png

At 96 hours, the best performing model currently (UKMET) still has a 125 mile absolute position error. The GFS, ECMWF, and even NHC track have a ~200+ positional error at 96 hours. Until Florida is out of the cone, things can change, stay vigilante.

https://i.imgur.com/C8dd4u9.png

Dorian reached my early morning benchmark tracking above 26N at 74W which verifies the HWRF so far. NHC seems to think the WNW wobble might be a permanent heading but if it makes another run west perhaps the Carolinas could still be in danger.

The net effect of all the different subtle steering effects on the now larger storm structure has thus far kept the track moving north of west. The outflow builds a dome that is not unlike a cheese glass dome, You can move the cheese around without touching it but the dome and tray the cheese sit on is a larger diameter than the cheese.


Also see WXman57 thinks it may miss south Florida.

Too many other posts to catch up on so I may miss some.

[Ian2401]

anyone got the EURO ensembles?

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/9hGCzQA.gif
12z NAVGEM... Decent shift W and brushes Florida then up to GA/Carolinas...

That’s a bit more than a brush BUT it is the NAVGEM

[tolakram]

As you might remember I thought there was a slim change this could miss the coast, or recurve and graze the carolinas. I'm still not confident though because I don't like the coincidence that the models started showing recurve as we lost the extras upper air data due to equipment issues. I'll feel a lot better once that gets back into the modeling.

It's always a bad idea to declare someone in the clear. We go through this silliness every year, some posters seem to get a thrill declaring someone in the clear. It's fine to discuss why you think the storm is going where you think it's going, backed up with data.

The majority of posters here, including me, have no authority to declare anything. These types of posts will be removed and we may issue warnings or suspensions depending on the situation. Please just avoid it.

Here's the latest error chart



and here's the bias chart for 12, 24, and 48 hour forecast points.



source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

[Emmett_Brown]

GFS, UKMET, CMC, GFS Legacy, ICON, NAV all trended back W to some degree this afternoon.

[catskillfire51]

As you might remember I thought there was a slim change this could miss the coast, or recurve and graze the carolinas. I'm still not confident though because I don't like the coincidence that the models started showing recurve as we lost the extras upper air data due to equipment issues. I'll feel a lot better once that gets back into the modeling.

It's always a bad idea to declare someone in the clear. We go through this silliness every year, some posters seem to get a thrill declaring someone in the clear. It's fine to discuss why you think the storm is going where you think it's going, backed up with data.

The majority of posters here, including me, have no authority to declare anything. These types of posts will be removed and we may issue warnings or suspensions depending on the situation. Please just avoid it.

Here's the latest error chart

https://i.imgur.com/QGl1jJi.png

and here's the bias chart for 12, 24, and 48 hour forecast points.

https://i.imgur.com/vy4bu68.png

source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

Is the Icon on that error chart?

[caneman]

As you might remember I thought there was a slim change this could miss the coast, or recurve and graze the carolinas. I'm still not confident though because I don't like the coincidence that the models started showing recurve as we lost the extras upper air data due to equipment issues. I'll feel a lot better once that gets back into the modeling.

It's always a bad idea to declare someone in the clear. We go through this silliness every year, some posters seem to get a thrill declaring someone in the clear. It's fine to discuss why you think the storm is going where you think it's going, backed up with data.

The majority of posters here, including me, have no authority to declare anything. These types of posts will be removed and we may issue warnings or suspensions depending on the situation. Please just avoid it.

Here's the latest error chart

https://i.imgur.com/QGl1jJi.png

and here's the bias chart for 12, 24, and 48 hour forecast points.

https://i.imgur.com/vy4bu68.png

source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

That is an average error if 120-140 mile error within 48 hours so it absolutely could come back west enough to ruin your day

[tolakram]

As you might remember I thought there was a slim change this could miss the coast, or recurve and graze the carolinas. I'm still not confident though because I don't like the coincidence that the models started showing recurve as we lost the extras upper air data due to equipment issues. I'll feel a lot better once that gets back into the modeling.

It's always a bad idea to declare someone in the clear. We go through this silliness every year, some posters seem to get a thrill declaring someone in the clear. It's fine to discuss why you think the storm is going where you think it's going, backed up with data.

The majority of posters here, including me, have no authority to declare anything. These types of posts will be removed and we may issue warnings or suspensions depending on the situation. Please just avoid it.

Here's the latest error chart

https://i.imgur.com/QGl1jJi.png

and here's the bias chart for 12, 24, and 48 hour forecast points.

https://i.imgur.com/vy4bu68.png

source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al052019/

Is the Icon on that error chart?

I don't think so, unless they use initials I'm not familiar with. I thought the Icon was the intensity model but it's not, it's a German model and it seems to be doing a respectable job, but I don't think it's out performing any of the other models. It would be nice to have some hard verification data for it.

[Ken711]

GFS, UKMET, CMC, GFS Legacy, ICON, NAV all trended back W to some degree this afternoon.

That's a model trend that I hope doesn't continue with the 18z runs.

[Mouton]

This has been my chief worry for the Northeast Flotia region:

STORM SURGE FLOODIING.

Dorian does not have to impact the Northeast Florida region with a direct landfall here in the region.to cause potential major storm surge into the Ssint Johns River and.its tributaries. Irma demonstrated that 2 years ago. Dorian's inner core, should it get as close as within 50 miles of Jacksonville, can still cause potential of major surge into the river, especally if it moved NW to N, parallel.up the coast causing a prolonged onshore fetch into the river.

Also, can not forget the Intracoastal Waterway as well as storm surge would cause problems along that basin .

and the St Mary's river and intercoastal in Nassau County. The Fernandina Beach marina is still under repair from Mathew. The bend at the Fl/Ga coast where the St Mary's/Amelia River outflow is a massive surge collector. Nowhere for the water to go especially during abnormally high "king" tides as the mouth is oriented toward NE winds.

Any idea what conditions would have to be met before they evacuate the island? Is it the strength of the storm or how far west it will be or a combination of both?

Technically almost the entire island is a cat 1 evac zone. The powers that be tend to discount that a bit if the storm is approaching from the SW as surge will be minimal. Storms up the coast or worse like Dora in 64 which came straight into Ponte Vedra are another matter. Mathew was a mandatory evac, few heeded it and had almost zero problem as it jogged east before land fall. Had it jogged west, not so good. The problem if you don't leave is they close the bridge and keep it closed till it is deemed safe on the island for return as in power lines removed from roads and major roads cleared of debris and if the bridge is deemed safe for crossing. We came back to some tree damage on our property but no structural and power off for a short while. Unless the NHC track moves further east, off of 80W, we are planning on leaving on Monday FWIW. Will put up shutters tomorrow and remove all loose stuff from the yard just in case. I'd rather have a short vacation away than sitting here in the dark with no AC! FWIW, the hurricane center shows a 23% chance of Mayport, just to our south, having cat 1 winds. That is interesting is it is the highest percent of all on the east coast at this time.