ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NOAA2 has just done a 180 degree turn, probably resample the insane winds again.

[caneman]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

No,we don't have all anything. While the cone supports that now to some degree, the danger of this storm moving further west or even WSW still exists. Go read up on the 1926 Great Hurricane and get back to me. Or 1947 Lauderdale cane. They are unpredictable animals and every met in the world with a modicum of respect for the science will tell you that.

That's nice and all and all for us weather geeks and I agree but you cant expect that of every day folks that just go about their business

[Highteeld]

Most insane dropsonde since Maria.

https://i.imgur.com/1FEvI0m.png

Here's Maria's mega-drop for reference

[Siker]

Did someone say “pump the ridge”?

 https://twitter.com/shawnmilrad/status/1167973227886342146

[sponger]

Three major feeder bands on Bahama radar.
Solid convection ahead of the eyewall.
No signs of any type of EWRC trying to start.

May god help them!

[EnnisTx]

155 CAT 4 vs 156 CAT 5 is just nomenclature

156 mph is not Cat 5.

Let me rephrase
155 mph vs 157mph is just nomenclature.

I like it, phraseology.

[jasons2k]

Just a random observation. I grew-up in Tampa. Then, I lived in Savannah for a number of years. We used to camp on a hammock out in the marsh, which was only accessible at low tide, and I was in charge of keeping track of the tide charts and scheduling the hike out to the hammock.

I never once have heard the term “king tide” in my entire life until yesterday. Not ever.

We always called them “spring tides.”

I don’t understand this need to constantly change things.

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

What the heck is that model?

[ozonepete]

Yes but unfortunately the short term motion now will lead to long term problem later regardless of whats happening with the shortwave. That shortwave is not close enough to cause any effect on the environment around Dorian right now..

its currently south of all the 12/18z gfs guidance and still heading west. The recurve will happen.. just when is the issue. and its looking like there will be enough ridging to cause florida east coast some serious problems.

Agreed.

Do you expect it to get within 50 miles of the Florida coast at some point?

Anything is possible at this point but I will not be surprised, models always have a tough time when a due west moving hurricane starts changing course as steerings start weakening & start coming in from another direction, where that happens is always the big question. Great example was Irma, it was supposed to turn towards Miami but ended up over the western keys.

Appreciate it, but I was asking Aric specifically because those were his specific points and I wanted to know what conclusion does that lead him to.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

What the heck is that model?

Model ran out of IBM -- not reliable.

[ouragans]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

What the heck is that model?

That's the reason why I copied his tweet. I hope someone knows... and what credit to allow it

[Nimbus]

Bahamas radar showed a wobble to the WnW in most recent loop..IMO

They need a lot more than a wobble and the Florida east coast needs a place to park this monster till the front arrives. The 2 AM position tomorrow is supposed to be near 76W then the 2PM position is supposed to be near 77W so its supposed to slow down to about 4.5 mph by sunrise?

[PandaCitrus]

This was a scary twitter thread to read. The pro mets and atmospheric physicists are starting to freak out on twitter that the models have blown this and it will barrel into South Florida.

Did someone say “pump the ridge”?

https://twitter.com/shawnmilrad/status/1167973227886342146

[wx98]

Both planes are in the eye right now

[supercane4867]

Dorian is almost fully in the range of Bahamas radar

[CopyGator]

Does anyone have a map of forecast points vs. actual center fixes? To gauge where he should have been at X time?

[NDG]

Agreed.

Do you expect it to get within 50 miles of the Florida coast at some point?

Anything is possible at this point but I will not be surprised, models always have a tough time when a due west moving hurricane starts changing course as steerings start weakening & start coming in from another direction, where that happens is always the big question. Great example was Irma, it was supposed to turn towards Miami but ended up over the western keys.

Appreciate it, but I was asking Aric specifically because those were his specific points and I wanted to know what conclusion does that lead him to.

Ooops, I just realized you were asking Aric

[Blown Away]

I tried to find a historical hurricane track that shows hard right turn like Euro or track like the NHC... Nada

[Michele B]

Yes but unfortunately the short term motion now will lead to long term problem later regardless of whats happening with the shortwave. That shortwave is not close enough to cause any effect on the environment around Dorian right now..

its currently south of all the 12/18z gfs guidance and still heading west. The recurve will happen.. just when is the issue. and its looking like there will be enough ridging to cause florida east coast some serious problems.

Agreed.

Do you expect it to get within 50 miles of the Florida coast at some point?

The way everything is setting up, 50 miles inland is not out of the question, or even 50 miles off the West Coast.

50 miles off the West Coast IS 50 miles inland!

[catskillfire51]

Both planes are in the eye right now

Am I crazy or judging by the plots they are on top of eachother