ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

WV loop. Very impressive

[NDG]

Both planes are in the eye right now

They're coming at each other from exact opposite direction, never seen that before, wow!

[GCANE]

Two broken recon windshields = model windshield wiper back to west

[Aric Dunn]

Agreed.

Do you expect it to get within 50 miles of the Florida coast at some point?

Anything is possible at this point but I will not be surprised, models always have a tough time when a due west moving hurricane starts changing course as steerings start weakening & start coming in from another direction, where that happens is always the big question. Great example was Irma, it was supposed to turn towards Miami but ended up over the western keys.

Appreciate it, but I was asking Aric specifically because those were his specific points and I wanted to know what conclusion does that lead him to.

It is fully in the realm of possibility.

we have extensive ridging, upper level steering holding strong, poorly modeled ridge pumping, etc.. the likelyhood of it processing inland into Florida even after the mid level ridging is eroded is pretty straight forward.

Models have not handled the continued motion well through its entire life and especially the last 2 days.

Presently it is south of ALL guidance and still heading west..

it has not slowed yet nor should it until we actually have some data to support the weaker ridge..

we have seen this many times before..

[TheDreamTraveler]

Someone on twitter made some interesting tweets about why Dorian hasn't really had any ERC's yet.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1167946951712632833

[jlauderdal]

This was a scary twitter thread to read. The pro mets and atmospheric physicists are starting to freak out on twitter that the models have blown this and it will barrel into South Florida.

Did someone say “pump the ridge”?

https://twitter.com/shawnmilrad/status/1167973227886342146

Shawn Milrad teaches at embry riddle in daytona beach

[prairie2]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

What the heck is that model?

That's the reason why I copied his tweet. I hope someone knows... and what credit to allow it

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_f ... oss_Scales

[Hammy]

So this is when recon data decides to stop coming in...

[Full8s]

If this doesn’t turn some people are going to lose their jobs, we have the all clear in Tampa


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I'm in Tampa (just north of it actually) and we certainly have not gotten an "all clear".

[GCANE]

26.3N 75.0W
937.9mb

[wx98]

Both planes are in the eye right now

Am I crazy or judging by the plots they are on top of eachother

Seems like I recall one storm before where one plane took a picture of the other as it passed overhead.

[dukeblue219]

So this is when recon data decides to stop coming in...

It's in on Tropicalatlantic.com from Mission 26 (the NOAA plane)

[Hammy]

So this is when recon data decides to stop coming in...

It's in on Tropicalatlantic.com from Mission 26 (the NOAA plane)

Any way to view it in-browser? Earth freezes the computer.

[GCANE]

26.2N 75.1W
941.1 mb

[supercane4867]

SFMR readings into CAT5 range on all quadrants...

[Hammy]

020700 2619N 07507W 7543 02004 9483 +173 +172 042083 100 148 012 00

[dukeblue219]

So this is when recon data decides to stop coming in...

It's in on Tropicalatlantic.com from Mission 26 (the NOAA plane)

Any way to view it in-browser? Earth freezes the computer.

You can view it in a table. For example http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... .9-135-148

[jasons2k]

I tried to find a historical hurricane track that shows hard right turn like Euro or track like the NHC... Nada

Where is Don Sutherland when you need him??

[NDG]

Still not gaining much latitude.

020900 2613N 07501W 7516 01951 9380 +186 +167 119010 014 032 000 03

[BrandonJay21]

Orlando International Airport announced they’re changing plans, and staying open.