ATL: DORIAN - Models

[mutley]

18z ICON German Global Model has Dorian landfalling in Ft. Lauderdale after a slow due west.

What does that model see so differently?

More influence from the low to the west. You can go all the back to 12z Tuesday before it gets wildly off from where Dorian is now.

Ah, in the gulf you mean. I see. Thanks.

[gatorcane]

12z UKM close up

https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

How strong are those ensembles showing Dorian?

[mutley]

18Z ICON has barely budged from its prior 12Z solution and would be catastrophic for metro SE Florida as it barely moves it up the coastline:

https://i.postimg.cc/nhFHGn3J/icon-mslp-wind-seus-22.png

This new german ICON model has two possible destinies. Greatness, or back to the model farm for more training, with it's head held low.

[Ian2401]

18Z ICON has barely budged from its prior 12Z solution and would be catastrophic for metro SE Florida as it barely moves it up the coastline:

https://i.postimg.cc/nhFHGn3J/icon-mslp-wind-seus-22.png

This new german ICON model has two possible destinies. Greatness, or back to the model farm for more training, with it's head held low.

its consistent ill give it that. something the other models cant say

[Ian2401]

18z GFS running. slightly faster at 6hr

[brghteys1216]

For what it’s worth, ICON is showing that SW dip the UKMET models do.

[sma10]

18Z ICON has barely budged from its prior 12Z solution and would be catastrophic for metro SE Florida as it barely moves it up the coastline:

https://i.postimg.cc/nhFHGn3J/icon-mslp-wind-seus-22.png

This new german ICON model has two possible destinies. Greatness, or back to the model farm for more training, with it's head held low.

its consistent ill give it that. something the other models cant say

And also, because tensions are so heightened due to the effect on coastal residents, the understandable mood is that ICON's position is some kind of kooky, crazy outlier. It's not really. For a 72 hr position, it's left yes, but not outrageously so.

[Ian2401]

This new german ICON model has two possible destinies. Greatness, or back to the model farm for more training, with it's head held low.

its consistent ill give it that. something the other models cant say

And also, because tensions are so heightened due to the effect on coastal residents, the understandable mood is that ICON's position is some kind of kooky, crazy outlier. It's not really. For a 72 hr position, it's left yes, but not outrageously so.

that and its got support from the UKMET too. dont think they will verify but like you said its not an outrageous solution.

[HurricaneFrances04]

On the 18Z GFS, ridging looks a bit stronger and the trough is a tad slower. Wouldn't be surprised if there is a small shift west here.

[Ian2401]

gfs has same latitude but faster forward speed. also looks like the ridge is a touch stronger

[jlauderdal]

its consistent ill give it that. something the other models cant say

And also, because tensions are so heightened due to the effect on coastal residents, the understandable mood is that ICON's position is some kind of kooky, crazy outlier. It's not really. For a 72 hr position, it's left yes, but not outrageously so.

that and its got support from the UKMET too. dont think they will verify but like you said its not an outrageous solution.

We have seem ridges underestimated for years, we shouldn't discount its solution.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS...Trend

[StPeteMike]

It’s Irma all over again.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Actually, a bit more ridging on the 18Z GFS through 42 hours. This might be a coastal scraper for North Florida/Georgia

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Trend

[chaser1]

18z ICON German Global Model has Dorian landfalling in Ft. Lauderdale after a slow due west.

I would love for someone to compare the runs of the GICON (German ICON) to what the storm has been doing. It has hardly waivered from its track this whole time.[/qu

0Z Aug 30 ICON run showed a Ft. Lauderdale landfall at 120 hr's. Same model run took the storm to Tampa, and to Jacksonville from there. 12Z ICON model run more or less did the same. 18Z ICON run did the same (at least to Tampa due to being cut off at 120 hr. for this run). Seems to me that the issue with the ICON runs up to that point, were that it was too fast (moving the storm about 24 hours to the coastline quicker then other models).

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It’s Irma all over again.

Ukmet nailed Irma 4 days before hand...all the other models had a matthew and middle of florida consensus

Hope its wrong

[mutley]

its consistent ill give it that. something the other models cant say

And also, because tensions are so heightened due to the effect on coastal residents, the understandable mood is that ICON's position is some kind of kooky, crazy outlier. It's not really. For a 72 hr position, it's left yes, but not outrageously so.

that and its got support from the UKMET too. dont think they will verify but like you said its not an outrageous solution.

I honestly don't think they will verify either, based on all I see. But if they do, it will be shocking to many. We will see. New royalty in the making (UKMET and ICON) or flash in the pan dunderheads. LOL.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Says heck with the stall scenario IMO... Way faster than NHC track

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS trending a stronger ridge building back north of Dorian around hour 54. If this gets much stronger, I expect to see more members making landfall.