ATL: DORIAN - Models

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS stalls out at 54 to 60 hours. Suspect it will start heading NW/NNW once the ridge builds back in.

[chaser1]

It’s Irma all over again.

Ukmet nailed Irma 4 days before hand...all the other models had a matthew and middle of florida consensus

Hope its wrong

Can someone re-post the 12 UK from today?

[funster]

Wow. Could be back to a Florida landfall here. Not much movement from 54 to 72 hours, maybe nnw

[sma10]

Ironically, if you plot the models out, GFS is really almost as much a right outlier as ICON is a left outlier (at least at the 72 hr mark)

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm going to attempt to do a validation check on the much discussed ICON.

Here is the 18z ICON 3 hrs out: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.png
This is August 28 00z run, 93 hours out (to now): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_31.png

Very on point. That run ends with a landfall in SE FL.

Pretty much all the ICON runs between that 8/28/00z and the most current have had Dorian pretty much in this current location in this time.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Well that's interesting...I knew the models would shift back west and correct themselves after the extreme shift to the east.

[Siker]

For like the 8th run in a row the GFS has underestimated 500mb heights to the north of the system within its 6 hour forecast. Think the Gonzo flight should help alleviate that for 0z hopefully.

[gatorcane]

The GFS did shift west some on the 18Z on the turn. Hopefully it doesn’t keep shifting west.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Today's trend with the GFS:

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Definite W trend... Getting interesting again... If not Florida may make it harder to escape w/o impacts farther north...

[AutoPenalti]

Definitely a role reversal from yesterday, still plenty of time for changes.

[gatorcane]

[TheDreamTraveler]

This would explain a lot about the westward shift in the 18z GFS...

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167916079995187200

[gatorcane]

Definitely a role reversal from yesterday, still plenty of time for changes.

Wouldn’t take too many more shifts to have Dorian recurving into Palm Beach County. I keep thinking about Irma and what happened and all the west shifts literally up to landfall. Went from coastal SE Florida to the lower Keys in just a few days.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks to those posting the model runs. Keep posting the GFS model maps. With the west shift, I'm curious if it will go a bit more inland once reaching the carolinas

[toad strangler]

18z GFS gives real TS conditions to much of the new watch area on the FL East Coast

[Blown Away]

The GFS did shift west some on the 18Z on the turn. Hopefully it doesn’t keep shifting west.

Some, that's a pretty big shift in short term. Also, GFS seems to not have much of a stall like Euro...

[Jevo]

Cmon GFS! ... well this just got a bit disconcerting, especially since I just drove through Vero on the way home from Disney and shutters were coming down off businesses in a Publix plaza we stopped in.

[FLpanhandle91]

This would explain a lot about the westward shift in the 18z GFS...

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167916079995187200

I believe this data is not input into this run.

[chaser1]

The GFS did shift west some on the 18Z on the turn. Hopefully it doesn’t keep shifting west.

Hard to nail down exactly but looking at the 18Z GFS run, i'd guess that Stuart north to Titusville would receive hurricane force gusts for a prolonged duration. Now, it IS the GFS Happy Hour run LOL, but then again ..... the model has been trending a bit further west and south over the past 2 runs