ATL: DORIAN - Models

[mutley]

Today's trend with the GFS:

https://i.imgur.com/iS8iz7d.gif

I'm beginning to think the small push south is real.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Scraping along the coast

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still manages to find an escape route away from Florida, but the trend throughout the day is noteworthy.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah very surprised at the forward speed depicted .on the 18Z run toward the coast.

[AnnularCane]

Cmon GFS! ... well this just got a bit disconcerting, especially since I just drove through Vero on the way home from Disney and shutters were coming down off businesses in a Publix plaza we stopped in.

Vero Beach is still in the cone, isn't it? This is the same kind of thing I was hearing about during Irma. I suspect someday people will learn an expensive lesson, either with this storm or another one.

[shah83]

We are really counting on strong and deep troughs happening as scheduled. Much weaker than what's shown on 18z is going to be trouble.

[MacTavish]

Setup of the second trough tooks a bit different on the 18z gfs. moving faster too.

[RL3AO]

Never could I have imagined people would over react to an eastward trend only for the "spring" to bounce back. /s

[SFLcane]

Gfs has been trending westward all day today..it can stop now

[funster]

Tons of rain for the Carolinas on this GFS run to say this least.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Never could I have imagined people would over react to an eastward trend only for the "spring" to bounce back. /s

Sadly I could, which is what I warned against earlier in this very thread.

[northjaxpro]

This 18Z GFS run has Dorian.passing.JAX by about 60 miles offshore Wednesday evening.

[Aric Dunn]

the left shifts continue. 1/4 of the G4 data for this GFS 18z run.
not sure how the other models work with getting the data.

but cant shift much more left without being onshore..

[gatorcane]

the left shifts continue. 1/4 of the G4 data for this GFS 18z run.
not sure how the other models work with getting the data.

but cant shift much more left without being onshore..

We are literally a shift west away on the GFS from the riding the east coast of Florida and a few shifts a way from maybe Dorian taking that left side of the track up through Palm Beach County. Let us hope we see a shift back east at 00Z.

[Hurrilurker]

12z UKMET ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/22PtaeH.png

This is mildly disturbing

The mildness being inversely proportional to how close you live to South Florida...

[toad strangler]

This 18Z GFS run has Dorian.passing.JAX by about 60 miles offshore Wednesday evening.

The same can be said and even less from Martin County all the way up the FL coast. Another shift like this and hurricane conditions would rake the whole described area.

[lrak]

A little information about the ICON model...https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

Didn't understand most of it

[GeneratorPower]

Never could I have imagined people would over react to an eastward trend only for the "spring" to bounce back. /s

It was quite an east shift though. Enough to get the NHC to bite hard. If it does go back west heads are gonna explode.

[Weatherboy1]

Well that's interesting...I knew the models would shift back west and correct themselves after the extreme shift to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/QND8Znk.png

GFS looks to be a BIT south and west of precious run. Still offshore. But like football, it’s a game of inches here given how close to the east coast of Florida this could get

[TheDreamTraveler]

Never could I have imagined people would over react to an eastward trend only for the "spring" to bounce back. /s

lol exactly. I had somebody arguing with me that this was a done deal and there was barely a chance it'd make landfall anywhere on the coast just because all of the models flipped hard to the east. I knew they'd start adjusting back west but not as far west as they originally were.