ATL: DORIAN - Models

[PandaCitrus]

HMON Due West through 48 hours.

[Hurrilurker]

Remember folks, we are still 2-3 days away from any sort of arrival. These models will shift again.

It’s hard to believe that even 2-3 days out the models can be still adjusting.

I am wondering if all the issues with Recon the past couple of days are playing a big part in this

I don’t see how they couldn’t be playing a part. Models need data to work and they’ve been missing a lot of data so yeah, there is definitely a negative effect (how “big” we shall see).

https://imgur.com/a/k9Zvcxg

[gailwarning]

Never could I have imagined people would over react to an eastward trend only for the "spring" to bounce back. /s

Sadly I could, which is what I warned against earlier in this very thread.

I think the pros need to emphasize to the public that the track for most storms is VERY uncertain this far out. TV personalities are particularly at fault. I have a friend from the Space Coast who is complaining loudly because he fled to TN to stay with family and now says there's going to be "no hurricane."

[RL3AO]

Never could I have imagined people would over react to an eastward trend only for the "spring" to bounce back. /s

Sadly I could, which is what I warned against earlier in this very thread.

I think the pros need to emphasize to the public that the track for most storms is VERY uncertain this far out. TV personalities are particularly at fault. I have a friend from the Space Coast who is complaining loudly because he fled to TN to stay with family and now says there's going to be "no hurricane."

I don't know what else TV Mets can do. The fact is that a five to seven day forecast is usually quite good. But quite good can be a 200 mile error which in this case is the difference between going into PBC and curving far enough east to only threaten the outer banks.

[SFLcane]

Now that’s a westward trend today...

[PandaCitrus]

HMON is stalled in the Bahamas.

[chris_fit]

HMON is stalled in the Bahamas.

Yup - Even moving slightly due E in the Bahamas lol

[MetroMike]

18z German ICON

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019083118/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

Fairly similar to the 12z with minor shifts.

[Highteeld]

gfs trends

[PandaCitrus]

Man this HMON run is just brutal for the Bahamas. They are getting annihilated. Still stalled through 63 hours.

[RL3AO]

gfs trends

https://i.imgur.com/Dzaue0D.gif

Safe to say thats a significant trend.

[SFLcane]

Hmon just of SFL coast west trend from 12z..

[chris_fit]

HWRF a good deals WEST and no stall yet through 45 hours - 27.3N 79.0W

Trend:

[TallyTracker]

HWRF a good deals WEST and no stall yet through 45 hours - 27.3N 79.0W

Trend:

https://i.imgur.com/MPkN7MJ.gif

Note too how the HWRF significantly drops the central pressure as Dorian crosses the Gulf Stream.

[chris_fit]

HMON finally moving slightly N after 69 hours

[PandaCitrus]

HWRF is getting uncomfortably close to the Florida coastline.

[chris_fit]

Huge shift W by HWRF

[BobHarlem]

Onshore flow there in Brevard/IR would bring a ton of surge/erosion there.

[AtlanticWind]

If this stall/turn is delayed by even 8 hours , would not be good

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1167938897092870144