ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

A 130kt storm with 150kt+ flight level winds. Don't think I've ever seen this before

155 knot drop sonde, 151 knot flight level and 153 knot smrf. Sorry but I disagree with the nhc.

[jasons2k]

When this is all over, we will look back and realize either yesterday was the end of a swing west, or today was the end of a swing east. One of them will be wrong. It will seem so obvious and easy in hindsight, yet as of now, we honestly don’t know either way.

I think the G4 outage and subtle changes in the ridging will end-up as a close study for future storms.

My message continues to be: we still have a long ways to go with Dorian. The only certainty right now is that things will change again.

Oh, and I think Dorian is indeed a Cat. 5.

My $.02

[sponger]

Im numb....
Joined after the crazy 2004 season. Experienced Katrina here, and learned so much since then. However seeing what is less than 400 miles from me to the SE has me almost floored tonight. The shift shifts(lol) dont help either.

Welcome rookie!!

[ozonepete]

Appreciate it, but I was asking Aric specifically because those were his specific points and I wanted to know what conclusion does that lead him to.

It is fully in the realm of possibility.

we have extensive ridging, upper level steering holding strong, poorly modeled ridge pumping, etc.. the likelyhood of it processing inland into Florida even after the mid level ridging is eroded is pretty straight forward.

Models have not handled the continued motion well through its entire life and especially the last 2 days.

Presently it is south of ALL guidance and still heading west..

it has not slowed yet nor should it until we actually have some data to support the weaker ridge..

we have seen this many times before..

Ok, thanks Aric. I guess a lot of people on here were waiting for you to shut me up.

[BobHarlem]

Brown's the best punter in the NFL. Otherwise wow, I hope this doesn't bite them.

[srainhoutx]

This is JTWC tier.

Careful grasshopper. You are crossing a thin line.

[supercane4867]

On the other hand it looks like there's still nothing to stop it from continue intensifying at the moment

[EquusStorm]

Well color me confused. Doesn't make sense to throw out very consistent data indicating otherwise, but if the pressure keeps falling and winds keep being significantly above category five threshold on future flights and aren't flagged, there'd be no choice but to upgrade.

[Hammy]

Although the exact NHC track forecast lies
east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even
a landfall remain a possibility.

from the nhc

That's a change from earlier today I believe

[MrJames]

Is recon still sampling? Maybe they are waiting to finish and then do a special advisory.

[GeneratorPower]

NHC must be in we're not gonna panic Florida mode cause all the evidence points to at LEAST 155mph and to not move the cone despite all the models shifting?

As another poster said, they doubled-down on their forecast. Millions of people are going to bed with all-clear in their minds, even though that’s not what NHC said. It’s what people are inferring from the track forecast. This storm could be one for the record books in terms of how it was handled for public consumption. I can point to no critical errors by NHC. But sometimes logical decisions are the building blocks of an unintended nightmare.

[ronyan]

Is recon still sampling? Maybe they are waiting to finish and then do a special advisory.

No I believe the planes are heading back.

[txwatcher91]

If NHC is going to ignore the plethora of data out there indicating a cat 5 then why even send recon out there? We can save a ton of money and use satellite estimates.

[cjrciadt]

Well Andrew and Michael were Cat 4... orginally...

[dukeblue219]

NHC discussion makes it sound like there's no 151 FL winds that'd support at least 135...

And a dropsonde at 155kt (gust, granted) on the surface.

If they want to be conservative with measurements that's fine, but how often have we seen storms where the planes can't find hurricane force winds at all and NHC is holding firm with CAT 2?

[MacTavish]

Nhc waiting for 00z suite. The official category is trivial at this point imo

[supercane4867]

Anyway, residents in the Northern Bahamas should be prepared for CAT5 winds.

[p1nheadlarry]

Well color me confused. Doesn't make sense to throw out very consistent data indicating otherwise, but if the pressure keeps falling and winds keep being significantly above category five threshold on future flights and aren't flagged, there'd be no choice but to upgrade.

But they only forecast to 155 mph, they do not want to forecast a five. In all fairness it is incredibly likely for it to hit Cat 5 and then be a 4 within the 12 hour window.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The NHC needs to seriously re-evaluate how to sample high intensity hurricanes if none of the data we saw supported a Category 5. If there's a 30 mph discrepancy, then that's significant.

[AdamFirst]

If NHC is going to ignore the plethora of data out there indicating a cat 5 then why even send recon out there? We can save a ton of money and use satellite estimates.

The NHC cites the inaccuracies of using SFMR in intense hurricanes as their reasoning not to upgrade.

There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions.