ATL: DORIAN - Models

[caneseddy]

Definite west shift on the 18z runs so far..hopefully they remd back east but I’m thinking the west shifts are no done yet..reminds me of Irma and Matthew with the east to west shifts..

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF at 66 hrs @130 miles WSW shift from 12z.

[TheStormExpert]

18z HWRF @130 miles WSW shift from 12z.

That's HUGE!

[NDG]

Yet another shift to the west by the latest HWRF

[MacTavish]

Hmon is actually east of its 12z track and weakening significantly due to dry air and shear at 84hr

[shah83]

Seems pretty likely HWRF 18z is going to landfall in FL. Sat image has eyewall on coast at hour 72. Of course, actual eyewall is still a bit away, but dramatic nonetheless...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Never could I have imagined people would over react to an eastward trend only for the "spring" to bounce back. /s

Sadly I could, which is what I warned against earlier in this very thread.

I think the pros need to emphasize to the public that the track for most storms is VERY uncertain this far out. TV personalities are particularly at fault. I have a friend from the Space Coast who is complaining loudly because he fled to TN to stay with family and now says there's going to be "no hurricane."

Self-education is the key. Your average person does know the GFS from the Euro (although they might think it is the currency) from the ICON or from the GEM (Canadian). Not that I can blame them some of this is complex stuff which takes years of active engagement to learn. Coupled with a bewildering lexicon of tropical cyclone terminology it is little wonder people get confused when a storm threatens there area.

[Blown Away]

Maybe the recon finding a slightly stronger ridge which prevents a total steering collapse and Dorian to keep moving and get farther W before turning??

[shah83]

HWRF landfalls Cape Canaveral.

[chris_fit]

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1167941449368756224

[BobHarlem]

Landfall? Cape Canaveral.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1167923289584390147

[Shell Mound]

Hmon is actually east of its 12z track and weakening significantly due to dry air and shear at 84hr

Note the twenty-four-hour stall over Grand Bahama as a Cat-4 or stronger...

[NDG]

Please people disregard the latest 18z HWRF, the all clear was already given to the FL east coast by many. j/k

[ConvergenceZone]

With more models slowly moving it west, the trend to the west is real now folks..........If the EURO follows suit, look out! Regardless, looks like it might be a real close call.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like stalling out in the Bahamas really takes a lot out of Dorian on this run.

[chris_fit]

[PandaCitrus]

HWRF did not get the all clear memo. It is inland Florida at 87 hours.

[Nasdaq]

also worth pointing out, only a few drops made into the 18z. Full data set goes into the 00z  https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1167927888009547776