ATL: DORIAN - Models
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I have been looking at the WV loops since I mentioned this a couple of hours ago but that ULL to the west of Dorian was forecast by the models to dive SW and be gone. Its still there, and still moving west, and is clearly visible. Again, per the forecasts by the models, its not supposed to be there.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models hi
As per normal models are having to readjust to the west in a system heading west. This seems to happen quite often with these types of storms.
Hwrf is a huge warning that even a small track shift puts it back onto the east coast.
Hwrf is a huge warning that even a small track shift puts it back onto the east coast.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Dylan
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Nasdaq wrote:also worth pointing out, only a few drops made into the 18z. Full data set goes into the 00z https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1167927888009547776
Wow, good thing I took a nice nap, I'm prepared not to go to sleep early tonight, get your popcorn out!
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
18Z EURO should be rolling soon. Also waiting on the UKMET ens - maybe in the next 30 min?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Shell Mound wrote:MacTavish wrote:Hmon is actually east of its 12z track and weakening significantly due to dry air and shear at 84hr
Note the twenty-four-hour stall over Grand Bahama as a Cat-4 or stronger...
Terrible for the people in the Bahamas. Luckily both HMON and HWRF show much less favorable conditions as the storm moves north near florida.
Everyone needs to be prepared and dont make decisions based on what you read in a forum.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO should be rolling soon. Also waiting on the UKMET ens - maybe in the next 30 min?
Maybe those UKMET Ensembles from earlier were onto something?
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- ObsessedMiami
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
NDG wrote:Please people disregard the latest 18z HWRF, the all clear was already given to the FL east coast by many. j/k
https://i.imgur.com/golejd6.png
Post of the year lol. Thanks for the chuckle
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
BrandonJay21 wrote:NDG wrote:Please people disregard the latest 18z HWRF, the all clear was already given to the FL east coast by many. j/k
https://i.imgur.com/golejd6.png
I’m instantly in love with you.
Okay. One of you spell it out for me. Does this mean anything significant?
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The preceding comments are never to be used as information to establish circumstances, plans or procedures for any weather related events. Only use official National Hurricane Center or National Weather Service information issued for your area.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO should be rolling soon. Also waiting on the UKMET ens - maybe in the next 30 min?
When they are ready, where will we find the 18z uk ens ?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
So this system will most likely be moving further West, the questions now is how far West, will it have a Southern movement at all, will there be a stall, will the troughs be as strong as the models show, will the edge of the HP actually erode away, will the Death Ridge over Texas and Louisiana move a little more West and cause a different opening??????? All these things are questions that most likely won't happen until they actually do happen. That is why this system has so many questions flip flopping just like the models. It would be a lot easier if there was easy and clear evidence of what is going to be happening in the next week, but we are still trying to figure out everything that happens on this big ol' marble we live on.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:gailwarning wrote:Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Sadly I could, which is what I warned against earlier in this very thread.
I think the pros need to emphasize to the public that the track for most storms is VERY uncertain this far out. TV personalities are particularly at fault. I have a friend from the Space Coast who is complaining loudly because he fled to TN to stay with family and now says there's going to be "no hurricane."
Self-education is the key. Your average person does know the GFS from the Euro (although they might think it is the currency) from the ICON or from the GEM (Canadian). Not that I can blame them some of this is complex stuff which takes years of active engagement to learn. Coupled with a bewildering lexicon of tropical cyclone terminology it is little wonder people get confused when a storm threatens there area.
Yeah many even get watches and warnings and their meanings backwards.
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.

- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
sma10 wrote:chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO should be rolling soon. Also waiting on the UKMET ens - maybe in the next 30 min?
When they are ready, where will we find the 18z uk ens ?
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
ICON model has been forecasting more west/southwest for days and days consistently. It's not a crazy solution.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Just goes to show how delicate the set up.. just a very small amount of missing data caused pretty drastic changes. and the rest of the data might be even more west..
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Blinhart wrote:So this system will most likely be moving further West, the questions now is how far West, will it have a Southern movement at all, will there be a stall, will the troughs be as strong as the models show, will the edge of the HP actually erode away, will the Death Ridge over Texas and Louisiana move a little more West and cause a different opening??????? All these things are questions that most likely won't happen until they actually do happen. That is why this system has so many questions flip flopping just like the models. It would be a lot easier if there was easy and clear evidence of what is going to be happening in the next week, but we are still trying to figure out everything that happens on this big ol' marble we live on.
Lots and lots of moving parts.
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