ATL: DORIAN - Models

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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5061 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:36 pm

I have been looking at the WV loops since I mentioned this a couple of hours ago but that ULL to the west of Dorian was forecast by the models to dive SW and be gone. Its still there, and still moving west, and is clearly visible. Again, per the forecasts by the models, its not supposed to be there.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models hi

#5062 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:36 pm

As per normal models are having to readjust to the west in a system heading west. This seems to happen quite often with these types of storms.

Hwrf is a huge warning that even a small track shift puts it back onto the east coast.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5063 Postby Dylan » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:37 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5064 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:37 pm

Nasdaq wrote:also worth pointing out, only a few drops made into the 18z. Full data set goes into the 00z https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1167927888009547776


Wow, good thing I took a nice nap, I'm prepared not to go to sleep early tonight, get your popcorn out!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5065 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:38 pm

18Z EURO should be rolling soon. Also waiting on the UKMET ens - maybe in the next 30 min?
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MacTavish

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5066 Postby MacTavish » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:38 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
MacTavish wrote:Hmon is actually east of its 12z track and weakening significantly due to dry air and shear at 84hr

Note the twenty-four-hour stall over Grand Bahama as a Cat-4 or stronger... :eek:


Terrible for the people in the Bahamas. Luckily both HMON and HWRF show much less favorable conditions as the storm moves north near florida.

Everyone needs to be prepared and dont make decisions based on what you read in a forum.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5067 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:38 pm

18z euro???
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5068 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:39 pm

chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO should be rolling soon. Also waiting on the UKMET ens - maybe in the next 30 min?

Maybe those UKMET Ensembles from earlier were onto something?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5069 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:39 pm

NDG wrote:Please people disregard the latest 18z HWRF, the all clear was already given to the FL east coast by many. j/k

https://i.imgur.com/golejd6.png

Post of the year lol. Thanks for the chuckle
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5070 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:18z euro???



Yes - Only goes out to 90 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5071 Postby mutley » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:40 pm

BrandonJay21 wrote:
NDG wrote:Please people disregard the latest 18z HWRF, the all clear was already given to the FL east coast by many. j/k

https://i.imgur.com/golejd6.png


I’m instantly in love with you.


Okay. One of you spell it out for me. Does this mean anything significant?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5072 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:42 pm

chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO should be rolling soon. Also waiting on the UKMET ens - maybe in the next 30 min?


When they are ready, where will we find the 18z uk ens ?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5073 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:42 pm

FWIW - the 18z NAVGEM

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5074 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:42 pm

So this system will most likely be moving further West, the questions now is how far West, will it have a Southern movement at all, will there be a stall, will the troughs be as strong as the models show, will the edge of the HP actually erode away, will the Death Ridge over Texas and Louisiana move a little more West and cause a different opening??????? All these things are questions that most likely won't happen until they actually do happen. That is why this system has so many questions flip flopping just like the models. It would be a lot easier if there was easy and clear evidence of what is going to be happening in the next week, but we are still trying to figure out everything that happens on this big ol' marble we live on.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5075 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:42 pm

Also, FWIW - NAVGEM Trend.... watch the trends, my friends....

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5076 Postby robbielyn » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:43 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
gailwarning wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Sadly I could, which is what I warned against earlier in this very thread.


I think the pros need to emphasize to the public that the track for most storms is VERY uncertain this far out. TV personalities are particularly at fault. I have a friend from the Space Coast who is complaining loudly because he fled to TN to stay with family and now says there's going to be "no hurricane."


Self-education is the key. Your average person does know the GFS from the Euro (although they might think it is the currency) from the ICON or from the GEM (Canadian). Not that I can blame them some of this is complex stuff which takes years of active engagement to learn. Coupled with a bewildering lexicon of tropical cyclone terminology it is little wonder people get confused when a storm threatens there area.

Yeah many even get watches and warnings and their meanings backwards.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5077 Postby chris_fit » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:43 pm

sma10 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:18Z EURO should be rolling soon. Also waiting on the UKMET ens - maybe in the next 30 min?


When they are ready, where will we find the 18z uk ens ?


https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5078 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:45 pm

ICON model has been forecasting more west/southwest for days and days consistently. It's not a crazy solution.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5079 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:46 pm

Just goes to show how delicate the set up.. just a very small amount of missing data caused pretty drastic changes. and the rest of the data might be even more west..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5080 Postby Ken711 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:46 pm

Blinhart wrote:So this system will most likely be moving further West, the questions now is how far West, will it have a Southern movement at all, will there be a stall, will the troughs be as strong as the models show, will the edge of the HP actually erode away, will the Death Ridge over Texas and Louisiana move a little more West and cause a different opening??????? All these things are questions that most likely won't happen until they actually do happen. That is why this system has so many questions flip flopping just like the models. It would be a lot easier if there was easy and clear evidence of what is going to be happening in the next week, but we are still trying to figure out everything that happens on this big ol' marble we live on.


Lots and lots of moving parts.
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