ATL: DORIAN - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!

We dont know if any of the G4 data was in this 18z euro.. .

According to Levi Cowen it WAS in the 18z run.

I just watched his video and he was talking about the GFS

[ConvergenceZone]

18z EURO

https://i.ibb.co/Rv5vVgV/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png

https://media3.giphy.com/media/cr9vIO7NsP5cY/giphy.gif

That’s encouraging. Euro holding steady- onto that L shaped track with a hard right turn.

Euro is definitely on crack with that multi-day stall, no wonder it turns it north as quick as it does...

[caneseddy]

18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!

We dont know if any of the G4 data was in this 18z euro.. .

According to Levi Cowen it WAS in the 18z run.

He actually said it was the GFS that had some of the data inputted

[srainhoutx]

18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!

We dont know if any of the G4 data was in this 18z euro.. .

Typically the data ingest for the Euro would not be available until 00Z with a late afternoon mission of the G-IV. I suspect the first suite of guidance to benefit from that data would be 00Z.

[STRiZZY]

18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!

We dont know if any of the G4 data was in this 18z euro.. .

According to Levi Cowen it WAS in the 18z run.

I believe he was speaking about the GFS, not sure about the Euro

[ScottNAtlanta]

All I can say about the Euro is that the mechanism for the stall or "the players on the field" are not in the right position to make the stall happen. The stall was being caused by high pressure in the GOM moving south as the ULL vacated. That would have provided steering counter to the high currently north of Dorian thus each canceling each other out...stall. We can visually see the the ULL has not left the field. It is still there. All of these things are dependent on each other. Just like in football if the QB throws a pass and no one is there to catch it the play isnt successful. Its all fluid and if something in the stream is out of place it cascades down the line
(Dear God I used a football metaphor )

[Blown Away]

00z Guidance... For the first time today the TVCN is now West of the NHC track... Pretty decent west shift, NHC might go West at 11pm...

[MetroMike]

We dont know if any of the G4 data was in this 18z euro.. .

According to Levi Cowen it WAS in the 18z run.

I believe he was speaking about the GFS, not sure about the Euro

Yes, I automatically think of GFS for the 18z. Not the Euro, my bad.

[TheDreamTraveler]

ummm im guessing the Euro did not get the G4 data into the 18z.... 48 hours over Grand bahama.. really.... then straight north...

at least 2 separate shortwaves had to have gone by in that time.

Yeah isn't 18z euro basically a variation of 12z? 0z we'll know for sure.

Yeah I forgot that the 18z euro is basically another version pulled from the 12z euro. 0z will be entirely new. For some reason I couldn't remember at first but mets on another board explained it a while back.

[jdjaguar]

ummm im guessing the Euro did not get the G4 data into the 18z.... 48 hours over Grand bahama.. really.... then straight north...

at least 2 separate shortwaves had to have gone by in that time.

Yeah isn't 18z euro basically a variation of 12z? 0z we'll know for sure.

Yeah I forgot that the 18z euro is basically another version pulled from the 12z euro. 0z will be entirely new. For some reason I couldn't remember at first but mets on another board explained it a while back.

Euro out @2:00am?

[STRiZZY]

Yeah isn't 18z euro basically a variation of 12z? 0z we'll know for sure.

Yeah I forgot that the 18z euro is basically another version pulled from the 12z euro. 0z will be entirely new. For some reason I couldn't remember at first but mets on another board explained it a while back.

Euro out @2:00am?

1:45ish

[Blown Away]

00z Guidance... TVCN now west of NHC 5pm track...

[stormchazer]

We dont know if any of the G4 data was in this 18z euro.. .

According to Levi Cowen it WAS in the 18z run.

I believe he was speaking about the GFS, not sure about the Euro

Just watch the Levi video and it was actually the HMON that had the new data.

[robbielyn]

All I can say about the Euro is that the mechanism for the stall or "the players on the field" are not in the right position to make the stall happen. The stall was being caused by high pressure in the GOM moving south as the ULL vacated. That would have provided steering counter to the high currently north of Dorian thus each canceling each other out...stall. We can visually see the the ULL has not left the field. It is still there. All of these things are dependent on each other. Just like in football if the QB throws a pass and no one is there to catch it the play isnt successful. Its all fluid and if something in the stream is out of place it cascades down the line
(Dear God I used a football metaphor )

it makes perfect sense. if the tight end or wide receiver slipped and fell cause it was raining hard, then it was a game changer. Weather and football go together.

[STRiZZY]

According to Levi Cowen it WAS in the 18z run.

I believe he was speaking about the GFS, not sure about the Euro

Just watch the Levi video and it was actually the HMON that had the new data.

GFS

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167918008280338433

[NDG]

Another look at the early early 0z models, I took out some of the not so reliable ones. The official NHC is a good 40 miles east of the TVCN consensus model.

[jlauderdal]

Another look at the early early 0z models, I took out some of the not so reliable ones. The official NHC is a good 40 miles east of the TVCN consensus model.

They hug the tvcn, lets see what they do, all signs point to a stronger ridge

[LarryWx]

Another look at the early early 0z models, I took out some of the not so reliable ones. The official NHC is a good 40 miles east of the TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/x4pdhDI.gif

Have any 0Z models already run? That doesn’t sound right.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Another look at the early early 0z models, I took out some of the not so reliable ones. The official NHC is a good 40 miles east of the TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/x4pdhDI.gif

Is the black dot the current position?

EDIT: Never mind, I see it's a model position.

[AdamFirst]

Another look at the early early 0z models, I took out some of the not so reliable ones. The official NHC is a good 40 miles east of the TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/x4pdhDI.gif

Have any 0Z models already run? That doesn’t sound right.

Those are statistical models. The farthest left model on the plot is the 18z HWRF run. None of the global or hurricane models have run yet.