ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Blown Away]

Dorian looks to be on S side of guidance in line with the Euro... The Euro shows extensive stall and the TVCN shows a slowdown but not a stall and is faster... Time will tell...

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/hrnuneL.jpg
00z Guidance... For the first time today the TVCN is now West of the NHC track... Pretty decent west shift, NHC might go West at 11pm...

True enough. This might imply a slight westward shift by NHC but I doubt it would be a shift bringing the storm back to grazing the C. Florida coastline. Might have landfall implications in the Carolina's though. My bigger worry would be seeing the 0Z GFS and EURO runs imply less of a stall/slowdown (more in line with the ICON but not as far south).... suggesting the Uair sampling may be implying a stronger ridge over the S.E. Conus. I'm not suggesting that the eastward moving trough won't weaken the ridge causing it's NNW to North motion, but possibly imply that the timing may still bring Dorian precariously close to some point(s) between N. Palm Beach county and Titusville.

Being that the major model 0Z runs occur after the 11:00 p.m. advisory, a "potential" westward track shift might not be indicated until the 5:00 a.m. advisory. If those of us in Florida are lucky NHC will continue to suggest that they see no significant changes to the overall steering dynamics. Guess we'll wait and see.

[bqknight]

18z Euro ensembles seem a bit more west through 66 hours. Still off the coast of FL though.

[chaser1]

Another look at the early early 0z models, I took out some of the not so reliable ones. The official NHC is a good 40 miles east of the TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/x4pdhDI.gif

They hug the tvcn, lets see what they do, all signs point to a stronger ridge

I realize these are the new 0Z plots but how does today's earlier 12Z UK fit within these? Just curious because I hadn't seen it earlier today

[Evil Jeremy]

00z Euro ensembles seem a bit more west through 66 hours. Still off the coast of FL though.

You mean 18z ensembles?

[chris_fit]

According to NHC 8/30 11pm Advisory...
He's supposed to be 26.3N 74.5W @ 8pm today.... He was at 26.2N 74.7W (More South, and Faster)

According to the 8/31 5am Advisory...
He's supposed to be 26.5N 75.8W at 2am tonight... We'll see about that. Per RECON, he's currently at 26.217N 74.800W

Unless he Turns WNW/He's gonna miss that to the south - Hoping to won't have to much bearing on the final turn away from FL.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/hrnuneL.jpg
00z Guidance... For the first time today the TVCN is now West of the NHC track... Pretty decent west shift, NHC might go West at 11pm...

True enough. This might imply a slight westward shift by NHC but I doubt it would be a shift bringing the storm back to grazing the C. Florida coastline. Might have landfall implications in the Carolina's though. My bigger worry would be seeing the 0Z GFS and EURO runs imply less of a stall/slowdown (more in line with the ICON but not as far south).... suggesting the Uair sampling may be implying a stronger ridge over the S.E. Conus. I'm not suggesting that the eastward moving trough won't weaken the ridge causing it's NNW to North motion, but possibly imply that the timing may still bring Dorian precariously close to some point(s) between N. Palm Beach county and Titusville.

Being that the major model 0Z runs occur after the 11:00 p.m. advisory, a "potential" westward track shift might not be indicated until the 5:00 a.m. advisory. If those of us in Florida are lucky NHC will continue to suggest that they see no significant changes to the overall steering dynamics. Guess we'll wait and see.

In addition the Euro is now the far right/east outlier of the reliable models once the N movement begins...

[chaser1]

Mostly for broad scale mid and upper level analysis, I'm curious how the NAM depicts the ridging to the north? Thought the model would have come out as already but guess it hasn't?

[sma10]

Any news on the 18z uk ensembles?

[jlauderdal]

According to NHC 8/30 11pm Advisory...
He's supposed to be 26.3N 74.5W @ 8pm today.... He was at 26.2N 74.7W (More South, and Faster)

According to the 8/31 5am Advisory...
He's supposed to be 26.5N 75.8W at 2am tonight... We'll see about that. Per RECON, he's currently at 26.217N 74.800W

Unless he Turns WNW/He's gonna miss that to the south - Hoping to won't have to much bearing on the final turn away from FL.

Excellent work on the analysis, models are good but the real weather is important too

[MetroMike]

Any news on the 18z uk ensembles?

I don't think they are allowed to show much of the 18z Euro as it is a pay model.

[BobHarlem]

I don't know anything about this particular model... but.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

[MacTavish]

I don't know anything about this particular model... but.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

Isnt that IBM's experimental "quantum" computation model?

[HurricaneFrances04]

I don't know anything about this particular model... but.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

Isnt that IBM's experimental "quantum" computation model?

I believe so. Pretty much every run that Ventrice has shared has shown an east central Florida landfall.

[SFLcane]

This would be devastating for FL..

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1167979670702186497

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I don't know anything about this particular model... but.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

Isnt that IBM's experimental "quantum" computation model?

The fact that its IBM brains is kind of scary

Does it have any historical success at forecasting?

[BobHarlem]

This would be devastating for FL..

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1167979670702186497

I'll pretend I never saw this.

[WeatherEmperor]

This would be devastating for FL..

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1167979670702186497

Wow this is super interesting! This is the first time I have seen the IBM’s Mpas model in action. I hope it gets posted continuosly for future runs


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[AxaltaRacing24]

This would be devastating for FL..

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1167979670702186497

I'll pretend I never saw this.

Honestly same. That model doesn't exist right? right?

[b0tzy29]

ICON 18Z - lets hope this doesn't happen.