ATL: DORIAN - Models

[nativefloridian]

ICON 18Z - lets hope this doesn't happen.

https://media.giphy.com/media/UWEHcZBVv109MUWG7c/source.gif

That particular model has been relentless on maintaining course every run over the past few days, with very minimal variations. Never seen that type of consistency before from a model so many days out.

[storm4u]

I know it's the NAM and its not a tropical model but its shifting west at 0z

[NDG]

Through 36 hours the 0z NAM is a little further west than its earlier run and is identical to the earlier 18z GFS.

[MacTavish]

I don't know anything about this particular model... but.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1167975009752625152

Isnt that IBM's experimental "quantum" computation model?

The fact that its IBM brains is kind of scary

Does it have any historical success at forecasting?

From what ive read their R&D is after some serious stuff but i have no clue regarding this models accuracy.

[Tailspin]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1167979670702186497

[MrJames]

18z UKMet Ensembles



12z for comparison

[b0tzy29]

ICON 18Z - lets hope this doesn't happen.

https://media.giphy.com/media/UWEHcZBVv109MUWG7c/source.gif

That particular model has been relentless on maintaining course every run over the past few days, with very minimal variations. Never seen that type of consistency before from a model so many days out.

I agree - uncanny

[PandaCitrus]

This twitter thread and the comments is worth a read. The atmospheric physicists on twitter are freaking out that the models have blown this and Dorian may barrel into South Florida.

https://twitter.com/shawnmilrad/status/ ... 7886342146

[gatorcane]

18z UKMet Ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/PmMezLG.png


12z for comparison
https://i.imgur.com/ybNXoXm.png

UK has a lot of lines into South Florida still. No major change from the 12Z. Maybe a slight shift east.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Uk Met 18Z Ensemble mean actually shifted east a tad, although the SW dip would be a bit disconcerting.

[shah83]

In a lot of these west bumps from run to run today, I've seen that the trough get sharper and deeper to nab the cane. Is there a regular process that explains why we're seeing a deeper trough in the synoptics?

[srainhoutx]

Pro tip regarding WxTwitter. Believe nothing you hear and half what you see...

[Steve]

NAM 500 shows a way out in a few days with a high weakening back from the northwest. Would it get out? Would it move out and get pushed back if that gap closed?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0100&fh=60

[fllawyer]

FYI, Orlando just rescinded their decision to close...

[floridasun78]

Any news on the 18z uk ensembles?

I don't think they are allowed to show much of the 18z Euro as it is a pay model.

news channel say cannot show Euro because it private but show own vision what their saw

[ObsessedMiami]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1167979670702186497

Some interesting feeder bands in that model over metro Miami Dade and Broward

[floridasun78]

ICON 18Z - lets hope this doesn't happen.

https://media.giphy.com/media/UWEHcZBVv109MUWG7c/source.gif

icon have not gaving up hit here in miami

[Blinhart]

ICON 18Z - lets hope this doesn't happen.

https://media.giphy.com/media/UWEHcZBVv109MUWG7c/source.gif

icon have not gaving up hit here in miami

Nor should it, since it might of been correct the whole time, it is getting closer to going in like that "A" storm of 1992, which is a very scary thought.

[SouthernBreeze]

Looks as if the ICON is more similar to mpas track than most other models

[Steve]

72 hours NAM 500, ridge builds back overtop with the next trough at the Great Lakes.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0100&fh=72